⚠️ BITCOIN DANGEROUS DOWNSIDE SCENARIO (& altcoins analysis)
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https://youtu.be/j-xhUSTDVxE (Charles Hoskinson Interview)
00:00 video summary
02:10 bitcoin analysis
07:38 altcoins prediction
Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
with the Cryptocurrency market today as
the Bitcoin bulls are fighting to hold
the thirty four thousand seven hundred
and eighty dollars support level.
We are already seeing Wick’s below this
extremely important support that we’ve
been talking about over the last
three months on the Snipers channel.
And at this point,
with the body of today’s candle at this
exact area, we are potentially going
to see a close above thirty four
thousand seven hundred and eighty eight.
And then futures markets
are going to open.
And Bitcoin at this point is currently
adjusting to the price action that we saw
with the DXY as we ended the week
on Friday and the strong push
to the upside that we saw with the US
dollar is now starting to show
its effect on Bitcoin.
And I want to talk about exactly what
to watch right now as Bitcoin is testing
thirty four thousand seven hundred
and eighty eight, what potential downside
targets we could see here with Bitcoin
and then will also address what’s
happening to Altcoins
in the overall market.
But more importantly,
we do want to talk about the micro
timeframes for Bitcoin because we are
at an extremely crucial level
testing this resistance.
And this is not a surprise.
It’s garden variety market behavior
that when a major level breaks
and by the way, it’s not a coincidence
that this is the exact level we
saw all of the volume come in.
This is a level that we know if this door
opens, it potentially puts Bitcoin
into a range where we could see
the twenty four thousand dollar level.
But I’m going to talk about why that may
not happen exactly as you may think.
And of course, we do want to address
the volume, the micro timeframes.
But right now on the hourly chart,
we are coming up to see garden variety
market retest of a previous
And so this at this point is going to be
a very big deal for Bitcoin if we’re able
to get above this,
that’s going to be the last draw
for Bitcoin to come up and hold this
thirty four thousand seven hundred
and eighty eight dollars level.
But if this is a rejection,
I’m going to talk about the potential
downside Snipers we could
see here for Bitcoin.
And then we’ll also look at Ethereum
when we cover Altcoins, as we always do.
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So first, let’s address what Bitcoin
is doing right now on the daily chart.
Of course, we are maintaining the body
of the candle above thirty four thousand
seven hundred and eighty eight.
That’s not a surprise.
We’ve seen that happen twice here.
You can see every candle has
pretty much only whipped below thirty four
thousand seven hundred and eighty eight
throughout this consolidation period.
We only saw one four candle
close below this level.
And so, yes, we are coming back
down to test this as a support.
That is obviously not a positive thing
because now this is
a bull trap in the books.
And so the next possible scenario,
in my opinion, is we’re going to start
to see the support level of this
ascending area where we have the low
in the higher low get tested.
And that’s at that thirty
two thousand level.
If we get to thirty two thousand
and we come into these more micro
timeframes and we do not see volume come
in at the thirty two thousand dollar
level, that’s going to be the most
dangerous downside confirmation
that Bitcoin will be giving us.
Because if the thirty two thousand dollar
level does not hold and it gets tested,
there is the door that opens up twenty
five percent downside to the twenty
four thousand dollar level.
And so what I’m going to be watching if
Bitcoin is not able to reclaim itself
above thirty four thousand seven hundred
and eighty eight and we see a rejection
here or we see futures markets open
and then into Monday we start
to see more downside action.
We’re not able to get
above the previous week.
We open at thirty five
thousand nine hundred.
Most importantly, the thirty six thousand
five hundred dollar level is the real
confirmation a rescue
operation is in place.
But we can’t talk about those levels right
now with Bitcoin showing so much
weakness in the micro timeframes.
I’m going to talk about that right now.
If we go into the fifteen minute chart,
notice how we’re still seeing a lot
of cell pressure and there have yet to be
buyers to equate to this
amount of cell pressure.
And it’s not a coincidence once again,
that this is exactly where we saw
the majority of volume come in at our
major support here on the Snipers Channel,
thirty four thousand seven
hundred and eighty eight.
Right now, we’re seeing garden variety
market retest of a previous
That’s totally fine if we’re not able
to hold the thirty two thousand
dollars level comes into the equation.
If we do not see by volume A
to this amount of cell pressure,
especially if we start to see more cell
pressure than this as we come down,
then that puts the real big downside, zero
to twenty four thousand on the table.
And that doesn’t mean it has
to come to twenty four thousand.
There could be a lot of Wick’s here.
We know there’s a lot of distribution
below thirty thousand.
And when we look at the six hour chart,
you can clearly see that when we initially
tested thirty thousand,
we had a lot of Bipasha pressure come in.
And so we have to realize that if thirty
two thousand comes on the table,
thirty thousand is next and below thirty
thousand is where there’s a lot of buyers.
I think if we come down to this range,
that’s going to be the opportunity to get
a nice long positions in for Bitcoin,
I hope you guys listen to what I said
yesterday where if we were to reject
thirty six thousand five hundred,
it’s an extremely dangerous game we’re
playing because we’re most likely
to come back down and test this level.
Since we saw the psychology of how we
initially tested thirty four thousand
seven hundred and eighty eight prove
that the bears were in control and that’s
why the bears were able
to bring price down.
So I hope you listen to me yesterday when
I said thirty six thousand five hundred is
key, and that’s exactly
where we saw the rejection.
So you can follow as many times as you
want, but our numbers on the Snipers
channel are always going to be exact
because we look at exact
numbers because they do matter.
And that’s why you see
volume at her exact levels.
And so when we trade Altcoins,
when we trade stocks for X,
there are always exact numbers
that matter on a chart.
And a lot of that has to do with previous
gaps when it comes to traditional
markets in the Cryptocurrency market.
I like to look at weekly candle
highs and lows when there’s a lot of
volume because those so very key
resistance and support levels.
So that’s how we get
the levels on our chart.
And by the way, this green
line that’s always on my chart
is the previous week the Open.
We’re going to be changing this tomorrow
because obviously the weekly open is going
to adjust and we’re going to possibly see
a week open at thirty four thousand seven
hundred and ETH don’t be surprised
to see that that is on the table.
So when it comes to the really micro
timeframes on the one minute, I’m going
to quickly address what’s happening here.
When we initially breached thirty four
thousand seven hundred eighty eight,
once again, no buyers were in sight.
So the bears were able to bring Bitcoin
down to see a Candles over thirty three
thousand three hundred and thirty three.
And because of that,
you can see we’re following the path
of least resistance sideways,
a little bit higher,
but there’s yet to be buyers come in.
And so I am still expecting some further
downside as an umpire because there’s no
volume here to confirm that there’s
any buyers at these levels.
And so breaching a major support,
not finding accumulation or any sort
of distribution there
makes me assume that we’re going to have
to come down to see if we can find
volume at these lower levels.
And so that’s the print that I’m
seeing here for Bitcoin right now.
If things change,
if we start to see something happen,
when the futures markets open,
the DXY pushes to the downside,
then let’s say Bitcoin does start to come
back about thirty four thousand
seven hundred and eighty eight.
We want to get about thirty
six thousand five hundred.
They’ll put us back above the market
structural resistance level
the previous week, the open.
And that is when we can start looking
at a rescue operation because then we have
the monthly open to conquer at thirty
seven thousand three hundred.
So that’s what we’re looking
at when it comes to Bitcoin.
Now, I want to talk about what’s happened
at Altcoins, because if Bitcoin does see
the downside scenario, let’s say we
see the test of thirty two thousand.
Let’s say we see a breach of thirty two
thousand because now we’re starting
to get these very, very, you know,
strong indicators of descending
triangles really forming here.
And so once again,
this thirty four thousand seven hundred
eighty dollars level is
really where the support is.
And so I think that a strong breach
of a daily candle body below this level is
what’s going to start bringing
in a lot more cell pressure.
So that’s what we’re watching here.
And if we start to see this play out,
when we’re going to look at her Altcoin
portfolios, first of all,
cover what’s happening to Ethereum,
the biggest Altcoin.
Of course, this will give us a strong
indicator of how other Altcoins may react.
It looks like Ethereum wants
to continue to see downside.
So don’t be surprised if Bitcoin does see
the downside scenario where more
fear comes into the market.
People in the Cryptocurrency market are
going to hedge into Bitcoin just like
where institutions hedge into Gold
the Cryptocurrency market works
in a different way, where
investors will hedge into Bitcoin.
So I expect fifty three thousand five
hundred satoshi to come on the table.
So far, there’s been no
confirmation of a reversal here.
What the Ethereum to Bitcoin chart
and then the Ethereum the US dollar chart
is an extremely volatile asset,
way more volatile than Bitcoin.
It certainly has a potential right now
to come down to the 1760 level,
in my opinion, will have the 200
day moving average there as well.
Anything below this I think
could only be a week.
I don’t know if we’ll come back and test
fourteen forty the previous all time high.
That’s not on the table for Ethereum
for me at this point,
I think 1760 would be where we’ll start
to see some volume, but that could change
depending on the severity of what happens.
And so with the total Cryptocurrency
market cap chart, we’re starting
to breach this 200 day moving average.
It looks weak.
It looks like it wants to come down
and test one point one three Trillion.
If we start to see this play out,
we really have to watch Altcoins.
I think a lot of Altcoins are
going to react in different ways.
This is a very different Altcoin market
than what we saw in twenty,
seventeen, eighteen others.
Dominance is still above
the twenty week moving average.
If we stay above this Altcoins are still
bullish does mean every
Altcoins and to be bullish.
No, I would say the fundamentally sound
Altcoins like maker Dow,
the largest decentralized autonomous
organization, versus something like
Dogecoin, which has an unlimited supply.
And so, you know, focus on the
fundamentally sound Altcoins.
I think you’ll be fine.
You look at Altcoins actually of use
case instead of Altcoins that are just.
Naeem coins and hyp tokens,
if we want to call it that,
and so I think it’s going to be
interesting to see how Bitcoin diamonds
and other Zamir’s play out when we start
to see Bitcoin make
the decision it wants to make.
If we see Bitcoin diamonds come up,
I think that 50 percent dominance is going
to be an area where we’ll see conflict
with the 20 week moving average.
And I think they’ll be a potential target
before we see further downside
for Bitcoin diamonds.
But we can’t assume that
we’re bullish just yet.
And then when it comes to traditional
markets will cover that tomorrow
since they’ve yet to open.
But futures markets are opening.
We saw the reaction
that the S&P 500 had to the
DXY seeing its push to the upside closing
Friday back above the 50 period
and 50 week moving average.
And on the daily chart,
we crossed way above the 50 period now
above the 200 day moving
average with the DXY.
And this is all out of nowhere within
three days back above Homebase
at the twenty week moving average.
That’s a reversal in my books.
And so it looks like a double bottom.
And so we could expect some upside here
at the DXY, which is why we’re starting
to see these traditional markets like
that SP500 come below its
fifty day moving average.
It looks like there’s
a bearish continuation candle.
It’s going to be a very interesting week.
You know, the Dow is down 500 points,
I believe, on Thursday,
ended the week quiet and futures.
And so or Friday, I think
was the 500 points down.
So it’s going to be interesting.
The traditional markets coming down
is not a positive thing for Bitcoin.
And as the storyline has continued
throughout this reversal,
when Jerome Powell announced that the U.S.
dollar interest rates are potentially
going to come up in 2023,
you know, that changed the playbook.
It changed the market.
It changed the schematics
of what Bitcoin was going to do.
And it’s not just Bitcoin reacting
to the news, it’s also other markets.
And so the charts are extremely important,
but the fundamentals are
also equally as important.
But most importantly is the psychology,
which is why I love making
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