BITCOIN BELOW $40,000 MEANS THIS WILL HAPPEN NEXT (ANALYSIS)
Snipers.
You have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Wednesday as we
have a lot to look at with volume today.
Notice how we have this 100
day moving average at 40 $0.
That is sort of holding right now.
We haven’t seen any daily bodies below
this level, and we did actually get below
40,000 yesterday coming to a candle low of
39,600, opening up this range to $38,000.
And now we’re seeing a garden variety
retest of a previous support now as
a resistance, which is currently sitting
just at where the price
is right now 45,500.
So I had to get this video out to you guys
because this is a very critical area
for Bitcoin and the real range that I want
you guys to keep in mind for Bitcoin right
now is gonna be this $38,000 level,
because now with this body
of this daily candle below 41,950 inside
of the range, it opens up the door
for price action to get to 38,000.
And notice how below the 8000,
we also have 36,000.
534,788 as very key levels where if
the price does get to 38,000 and we don’t
see the type of volume on the micro
timeframes, that could assume a shortterm
bottom, the likelihood of Bitcoin coming
down to this $34,788 level
becomes a lot more likely.
So over the next few days, maybe you might
have to remind me in the comments below.
We really want to pay attention
to the volume on the micro timeframes,
and so we’re definitely going to do
that today, as Bitcoin has seen the push
back up to test a previous
support as a resistance.
But keep in mind 38,000.
And our resistance for this
range is at 44,800.
So 41,950 is also a range that we could
potentially see as a support level.
But we cannot assume that until we have
a full daily candle about 41,950
to call it a support level in a range.
But for now the range
has opened up to 38,000.
So this means it’s going to be a lot more
volatility for Bitcoin because this range
now is about a 15% range, and of course,
we have these two levels
below 38,000 at 36,000.
534,788.
That could easily come on the table
if we stay in the range below 41.
950.
So that is just what I want
to throw from the start here.
And we’ll talk about altcoins at the other
revolving parts of the cryptocurrency
market so that we can get a four
dimensional view of what’s happening.
But knowing that 44.
838,000 is the range that we’re in,
let’s first go on to the six hour chart.
Look at how this volume is coming in.
We’re having a rise of sell pressure,
and we have a descending
amount of by pressure so far.
And so that’s obviously not a good thing
if we want to assume that this is a short
term bottom from the downside that we’ve
been seeing since Bitcoin was
able to get above 49, 700.
We saw a weekend fake out that took
us to around 540 before dumping 20%.
And now if we look at the move so far from
this recent top on the 6 September
tilt here, we’re 25% down.
And so that could already be
considered a corrective move.
However, we have to now
watch the volume to see.
Since we’ve come down from that level,
we have not seen any buy volume on the six
hour chart where we know institutions love
to invert their volume throughout this
whole period that we’ve
seen since that 19% drop.
So we haven’t seen any buy
volume equate to that.
That’s one thing we would want to look
for if we want to assume a shortterm
bottom because this is what started it.
So we want to see something similar to
assume that it’s going to end it right.
And so we haven’t seen that type
of volume the six hour or the four hour.
So if we go into the three hour chart,
this is where it starts
to get a little interesting.
We did see a good amount of volume come
in at 43,000 that we talked about
from the market structural support
that held Bitcoin in the
range of 44,840, 7000.
But then we saw the real institutions come
in and the whales push and drive
price down below 41,950.
And that indicated to me that they
wanted to clear this range.
They were already willing
to sell Bitcoin at 40,000.
And I said yesterday,
the likelihood if we come back down below
41,950 to break even further
down was highly like.
And that’s exactly what happened.
So we got below 40,000 now.
So we’re just slowly clearing
this range to 38,000.
Notice how there’s such a small
gap here left to 38,000.
So if we want to assume that there’s
a bottom forming here,
we need to see some volume.
And if we don’t, the likelihood of us
coming to 38,000 becomes more likely.
So we haven’t seen anything
crazy with buyers so far.
Going from the six hour to the four hour
to the three hour we go
into the 1 hour chart.
You can see this is really where
we saw some buyers come in.
Remember this rule that I told you guys
at the midpoint of our ranges,
we have our support and resistance
in red for our channel.
And a lot of times the midpoint could also
be considered a level where we’re
gonna see buyers and sellers.
And that’s exactly what happened here.
We got to the midpoint of this range.
So before we got to 380,
we saw some volume coming on the 1 hour
chart, but it wasn’t anything significant
and definitely not enough volume
to justify price action now above 430
where we have this market
structural resistance.
And so we really have to ask ourselves
what game are institutions
playing right now?
And it looks to me like
they like to come in.
They clear these ranges.
And then when we come back to the range,
they’re able to drive
price even further down.
They’re really trying to get
the price to a certain destination.
The question is, have we
reached that destination?
So we go into the 15 minutes chart.
This is where it gets fun.
We start to see why we’re seeing
some fun sideways price action.
Now, volume came in as
soon as we got below 400.
And you can see it was really
that $40,000 level where there is a Wick.
Maybe that triggered the buy limit orders
that were already on order books
and things of that nature.
So now we see drive price up
ETH price drive up because the path
of least resistance is always
sideways a little bit higher.
And now we’re just having
a cup of coffee at 41, 950.
So that tells me right now that because
we’re having a cup of coffee here.
And this volume that we saw when we came
to the midpoint of this range was not
anything significant to the point
of the type of volume that brought us
below this range tells me that this is
not the final destination for Bitcoin.
So this cup of coffee right
now is very important.
So at this point, if we cannot get above
44,800 and I’m giving Bitcoin some
breathing room here because initially
we said the monthly open at 47,000.
If we want to assume further upside.
Now, if we can’t get candles of a 44,800,
then it’s going to be very tough
for Bitcoin to get higher
price levels above that.
And so until we see 44.
800, my assumption is they’re coming
to target this market structural
support at some point or another.
Timing is the hardest thing to predict.
And that’s at 36, 500.
And if they move the price sideways
in this range, they could do
that for as long as they want.
The question is, when are they gonna get
the price of the destination they want?
And when are we gonna see
the volume to justify that?
And if we go into the three minute chart,
lastly, and then we’ll transition
it’s all points you can see here.
We did see all this volume
coming this by volume.
But if we really extend this chart, notice
how how much sell pressures coming in.
We have not seen by pressure equate
to any of this type of sell pressure.
So micro timeframes are also indicating
that there is a lot of bearish pressure
in the shorts term with retail.
And then, of course, institutions seem
to be playing their game as well.
So that’s what we want
to monitor here for Bitcoin.
The most important thing to realize is
the range has expanded,
which means more volatility.
And that’s 38,000 as a major support
and 44,800 as a major resistance that if
we can get above, we can now start talking
about upside and some potential
targets to the upside.
But notice how Ethereum yesterday was
funny because it started to perform
a little bit better than Bitcoin,
but then it just kind of crashed.
And I told you guys that above 65,000
Satoshis with the the the Bitcoin chart,
this could be a very
volatile range for Ethereum.
And so the theory Bitcoin chart.
Notice how it saw this quick
push down, this quick push up.
And depending on the timing of where
Bitcoin price is at, this is really
a very short term volatile asset.
We could see if they slightly
outperform Bitcoin in certain phases.
But for the most part,
when we look at let’s say the daily chart
where we can start getting
more of a macro picture.
We’re seeing daily lows
continue to be formed for the the
Bitcoin are indicating weakness.
This 65,000 Satoshi level
is important for me.
So this is what I’m watching for altcoins.
If we get a below 65,000 Satoshis,
the reason this is a big concern for me is
what I’m going to start saying is not only
is Ethereum not going to be performing as
strong as Bitcoin,
but I believe other altcoins,
especially the ones in the top ten,
the top 20, are also going
to follow that path.
Being the fact that Ethereum to me is
a leading indicator of the rest
of the altcoin market, so 65,000
associates is significant there.
We want to stay above that.
We don’t want to assume that opinion.
And so the total cryptocurrency market
capture on the daily really looking like
it topped out here with this lower
high with this new leg down.
And so that’s a food for thought
coming down to 178 trillion.
We break below this.
Now we have a very volatile range
that takes us to one 3 trillion and that’s
going to be
very big downside push for Bitcoin
and assuming this happens,
I think a lot of all coins will bleed out
into Bitcoin and that’s why this could
continue the strength that we’re seeing
now with Bitcoin dominance at 42 erce
looking like it has double button.
We don’t have a confirmation ETH,
but we have not broke the previous May
loads of Bitcoin dominance and the DXY
did already double bottom.
The thing is Bitcoin Donnas,
notice how the 20 week moving
averages at we’re not at 44%.
We’re at 42%.
The DXY though, is above
its 20 week moving average.
It’s been above its 20 week Barrett.
And guess what?
It helps us double bottom to get there.
And being a very correlated chart are we
assuming Bitcoin dominant
is also increasing?
That would be in line with a theorem
to Bitcoin not performing well
and the dominant is failing to form
new highs from the May highs.
And that also is a bearish opinion
on the macro and then same thing
with the others with you
Ethereum and Bitcoin excluded
from the altcoins on the top 100.
That’s also showing weakness with
a failure to form you highs here.
So this is all food for thought here.
So with Ethereum ETH point is here,
it’s a leading indicator
for these alt coins and below 34.
54, we have the support of 1980, not 2000,
not 2534 54 and 1980 is
the range in between that range.
Ethereum can flirt as much as
it wants is a volatile asset.
So expect that what we really want to
watch is the theme of the Bitcoin chart.
It will give us more clues and then
to wrap the four dimensional analysis,
let’s look at the DXY.
We might have some time to buy ourselves
and Bitcoin could see some
inside of this price.
Actually, if this does not break above 93
point 82, could we say that we have maybe
a head and shoulder pattern
here on the daily chart?
Who knows?
But what we could say is that this is
in the early stages of a reversal
from the double bottom and that if we
continue to see strength about 93 point
82, that’s where we want to start being
concerned, because that is where I expect
the S Amp P 500 and the cryptocurrency
market to really react
to the strength of the dollar.
We’re already seeing that slightly here
with S and P 500 now below the 50 day
moving average, finding support at the 100
day moving average,
which is done in the past.
But the question is, is it going to get
back above the 50 day moving average?
We saw this right before the start of this
year, but we haven’t seen it
since the year has started.
The Spy 500 has come below this 50 day
moving average to test
the 100 day moving average.
So we really want to monitor this.
We get above the 50 day moving average
that could buy the cryptocurrency
market some time.
We can start looking at some upside
scenarios that gives the cryptocurrency
market a lot more of a
healthier environment.
But if we start to break below this 100
day moving average at for 300 for the SMP
500 Emini futures contract,
that could be a huge concern for me
because that would assume a very negative
environment for the cryptocurrency market.
See, upside and commodities are
pretty sell right now with us.
Oil and gold are not going to cover
that in Japan is not doing anything too
impressive after it came up to really
test the previous highs from this year.
So that is showing just kind of some more
stability there with traditional markets.
Very interesting time, snipers.
And it’s gonna be exciting to see what
happens here with Bitcoin really is
$44,800 range all the way to 38,000
with 41,950 sitting right
at the 50 yard line in the middle.
It’s gonna be an interesting and volatile
period here over the next
few days, in my opinion.
And so we’ll continue to watch that.
And I am here in Greece.
As some of you may know, I’ll show you
guys a little bit more of a view here.
Hopefully you can see what
beautiful place, right?
If you guys want to see some of my content
here, you can follow me
on Instagram at Naeem.
It’s just my first name.
And with that thank you all for tuning
in to the Snipers channel today.
I hope you enjoyed today’s analysis.
And I’m going to get
my workout in until next time.
Snipers out.
