Bitcoin is setting up for a bullish CME Gap Fill at $7,600 before the May 2020 halving. A perfect textbook Head & Shoulder pattern has formed on the daily which indicates short term bearish pressure. If we do not break above $9,175 then we will most likely complete the break down below the shoulder neckline to a possible target of $7,600. The only way this can be invalidated is by breaking above the left shoulder at $9,175 which has already failed during the weekend.
Lately, BTC/USD has correlated highly with the S&P500 so depending on how equity markets open on Monday and perform during this week will we know how BTC will react. We saw a strong rejection above $9,180 on Saturday validating the head and shoulder pattern.
Key levels to watch here are a push above $9,300 (50D MA) which will surely invalidate the head and shoulder (however remember this already failed over the weekend but equity markets open on Monday which can change BTC’s direction due to high crypto manipulation during the weekend.)
If we continue down we will watch for the 200D MA support at $8,730 to hold and then the final support of the 50W MA and 100D MA which will be around $8,250. Anything below would indicate bears are in control so longs should be closed and reopened around $7,600 where we have strong ascending support which has taken us above $10,000 in the last two touches.