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https://youtu.be/j-xhUSTDVxE (Charles Hoskinson Interview)
00:00 cryptocurrency market analysis
05:55 bitcoin prediction
10:05 altcoins update
11:45 fundamentals that matter
You have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Wednesday as we
are seeing weakness at 44,800 now below
the 200 day moving average with a bearish
tail with today’s candle,
yesterday’s candle and the candle before
that, if we morph everything
from the smaller timeframes
into the larger timeframes,
what you’ll notice is on the four hour
chart, we are starting to come test this
100 period moving average,
and this is gonna be a very
major support level at 43 800.
And if Bitcoin is not able to hold this
level, we are already gonna give Bitcoin
some room from this structural support
level to even get this Wick
towards this $43,800 level.
If we don’t see volume at this level,
that’s gonna be a very, very big problem.
Because at that point now we have
a potential downside scenario on the table
that could take us to 34,788
and potentially even to see further lows.
And since everything more into the larger
time frames, since we’re already coming
to test this 100 period moving average
on the four hour chart at 43,800,
does that give us the indicator that we’re
possibly going to come and test the 100
period here on the daily chart at $38,000
as a first potential sign of support or
an area of support, to say the least.
We’re gonna talk about that today,
and there’s still a chance that we
could come and test 49 700.
I’m gonna be your Empire.
The Bulls are also important.
So I’m gonna address the bears and Bulls
today, and I’m gonna take a little bit
of a different approach
to talk about Ethereum.
Of course, the leading indicator
for Altcoins also showing weakness today.
The total cryptocurrency market caps are
also coming down to test 178
trillion dollars in market cap.
And then the revolving parts like others,
dominance and Bitcoin dominance
are also extremely important.
So we’ll talk about Bitcoin dominant city.
I’ve made a bold prediction that Bitcoin
dominance is going to start seeing
a reversal and trend because this chart
notice here is very similar to the DXY,
and they have a lot of correlations.
Notice how in the top of the Bitcoin Bull
cycle in 2018, that’s when
the DXY started to move up.
And as soon as this DXY formed this higher
low, that’s when Bitcoin dominance.
I’m sorry, I’m looking at the Bitcoin
dominant start right now,
but look, the DXY is so similar
2018, Bitcoin formed at high or low,
and that’s when the DXY started
to move up with Bitcoin dominance.
So they’re very correlated.
have to understand that the fundamentals
are just as important as the technicals.
A lot of people are talking about the war,
what’s happening with China,
and you have to realize this.
I personally, I come from Mo Sell, Iraq.
That’s the most bomb
city of the war on tear.
I was born in the United States.
However, my parents have told me stories
about, you know, sleeping at night not
knowing if missiles gold
strike their location.
And so this really hits
home to me, you know?
Eth, the Afghanistan war ending realized
that war budget is the most
expensive part of a country’s expense.
The United States incorporated.
It’s a company.
War budgets are the most expensive thing.
And so with Biden ending this war,
are we gonna be seeing
strength with the US dollar?
Is that fundamental gonna play
a part with this DXY moving.
I’m going to talk about this because
remember, if this DXY moves up,
Bitcoin dominance chart is very similar,
that means it’s the end of altcoin
season, at least temporarily.
And I also want to talk about what I’m
watching when it comes to Cathy Wood
purchasing Plantier shares.
And Plantier just bought a massive
position in gold liquidating.
Some of their stocks and precious metals
are actually looking very strong.
And so with this Afghanistan war ending
with the uncertainty with the US dollar,
but the dollar potentially seeing strength
in the US being the largest
holder of gold.
And then you have, of course,
Russia that holds, I believe,
the largest amount of platinum or silver,
or one of those in China, I believe,
is the one that owns the most
platinum, if I’m not mistaken.
But we’re gonna look at gold en Paladium
today because I want to talk about what
I’m expecting to happen,
and just this is my assumption and how I’m
playing the market with,
you know, the potential of the S.
Amp P 500 seeing some downside.
This is capital that’s
going to flow somewhere.
And so I’m trying to go where the hockey
puck is going,
not where it’s currently at.
And I believe that we’ll start to see
capital flow into commodities.
And then I’m also gonna talk about Chinese
tech stocks because people don’t
realize how powerful Alibaba is.
And with all this Chinese food,
look how much below this 200
week moving average we are.
And you guys gotta understand China is
at the early stages or even the late
stages, I believe, of developing their
own airline right above and beyond that.
The new sell road that runs through
from China to Europe is really a huge
economic benefit to many countries
in the west,
like Europe, Germany and sell of these
countries outside the United States.
China plays a big part in their economy.
And Alibama being so oversold.
I’m just saying, if the Spy 500 is gonna
come down, I want to know
where that money is going.
There’s a reason this market’s
worth a couple trillion dollars.
The money’s gonna go somewhere.
So we’re gonna follow the money today,
I guess, the snipers channel.
And let’s just dive into this
Bitcoin analysis, as we always do.
We’ll start on the weekly chart.
The weekly 20 period is the most
important support level.
When you’re above the 20 week moving
average, that means you’re
in a bullish trend.
It’s sitting at this point
around this $42,800 level.
And the reason I don’t really care about
the 20 week is because just below
it is the real support at 41,950.
And then just below that is
the monthly open at 43,000 or 41,500.
And so this right now is gonna be
my pocket and target for Bitcoin if we
maintain price action below 44,800.
So I expect Bitcoin to come test this
monthly open at 41 950
the longer we stay below 44 800.
Now, could we start looking at some
of the smaller timeframes and get hints
as to where price action is going sell.
Let’s look at this four hour.
We have a bearish candle with a bearish
tail, and this all is price action
below the 200 day moving average.
Keep that in mind.
So we have the 200 day moving
average sitting right here.
We’ll keep that in blue,
and so we pretty much this
continuation candles sort of bullish
but then an immediate rejection.
I wouldn’t call this a bearish engulfing,
but this obviously showing
bears are in the market.
And now we currently are testing
the market structural support for the
first time, and we’re below 44 800.
So you sell me what’s most likely at this
point, let’s say we come and test
41,950 just as an assumption.
If we test this level and it does not
gold, we don’t see volume
come in at that point.
I believe Bitcoin is in the early phases
of seeing one more
push to the downside that could
potentially bring new lows
towards the end of this year.
But that doesn’t mean sell go too far
below the $28,000 level
that we already tested.
You know what?
If we come down, we form
another low just below 30,000.
I think that that would be a very fair
downside scenario for Bitcoin
if we break 41,950.
But really, that monthly open at 41,500 is
now at any point in time.
If you don’t want this scenario to be
the most probable, then this
is what I would be monitoring.
It’s pretty simple, actually.
The weekly opens at $47,000.
If we can get above this weekly open,
in my opinion, that gives us
the chance to test 49 700.
We have some room in this market structure
to get even a little bit above that.
And that would be very nice
to see if this happens.
Maybe my altcoin prediction about
Bitcoin dominance increasing is wrong.
I don’t know.
I don’t think that Bitcoin dominance will
increase if we see Bitcoin continue
to the upside, because that will
bring altcoins to the upside.
So if we keep going up,
I think that maybe I’m a little
bit too early on that prediction.
But if we break this level at 41,950,
I do believe my prediction is gonna come
into play where Bitcoin dominance is going
to see a reversal here from this 20 week
get above the 20 week moving average,
and pretty much follow the DXY
in a slow grind.
Back to the upside.
And if that happens, of course,
there’s several ways to hedge against us.
If you’ve watched our last few videos,
you know, you can either take altcoin
profits back into Bitcoin or if you don’t
want to sell spot positions due to short
term capital gains being triggered,
you could take a short when
an Altcoin sees a high live.
I wouldn’t short Bitcoin.
I’ll tell you that right now,
because we’re going to see money flow
into Bitcoin regardless,
Bitcoin damage is so low and others
dominance right now, it’s really a game of
when is this going to break down?
In my opinion, it could be here.
It could be a little bit higher,
or it could even be a higher high.
Here’s what I think is going to happen.
I think that we’re not going
to see this higher high.
Just yeah, I think that there’s
a possibility we could just kind of trend
down a little bit while
Bitcoin dominance comes up.
Before seeing ETH scenario around October,
November of this year were Ethereum
tries to make the new hide and it does.
People start saying, oh,
Ethereum is gonna flip Bitcoin.
And I think that that would happen
a little bit later, and that would justify
and make the people happy
that want them to flip Bitcoin.
But then I think that it’s just gonna be a
higher high for this to just come down,
and the Bitcoin will eventually make you
high after Ethereum because Bitcoin is
King, and you’re not going
to convince me otherwise.
You know, being in the room
with Charles Olson and on a couch
in Wyoming and him talking about
the cryptocurrency market,
I will never forget those days.
So just realize that Bitcoin is King.
650 Satoshi’s, Breaking on Ethereum
to Bitcoin is a confirmation of our
prediction of Bitcoin dominance being
the player, and we’re going to start
seeing others dominance falter.
So we’ll monitor 650 satoshis,
not much to talk about with the total
cryptocurrency market capture.
I don’t really have much to talk about
here because we’re probably going to see
this move sideways with this sort
of uncertainty in the market.
We talked about it.
And then let’s talk about some of these
things that are more
fundamentally based, right?
So when you’re trading 80% is emotion.
I said this in the Charles Hoss
cause it’s an interview.
10% is fundamental than 10% technical,
so fundamentals matter.
Like I said, I come from one of the most
bombed cities from the war on terror.
This Afghanistan war ending
does hit home to me.
And so I want you guys to realize
that this could be a catalyst for the US
dollar to see strength with the fact
that they don’t have an expense
for war anymore, at least a significant
expense such as an active war.
And so that certainly can increase
the strength of the US dollar.
Let’s say they start you know,
raising interest rates.
And then next thing you know,
they raise taxes.
All this stuff feeds into the opinion.
And listen, here’s the other things
Warren Buffett tells you all the time,
never bet against the US government.
And so I’m just saying, this DXY.
Guess what, Bitcoin dominance moves up.
And then everything we’re
talking about comes together.
Spy 500, Where’s the money gonna go?
If the DXY.
Moves up like it always does,
it hedges against the,
you know, the high
price to earnings stocks.
The tech stocks, like,
if you look at Maker Do, for example, even
Crypto Maker does at, like, a 66 P ratio.
When we talked about it a few months ago,
this was, like, three months ago,
it was at a 20 PE ratio.
So what happens when the SMP 500 falls?
Where does that money go?
Is it gonna go into these high PE stocks?
No, it’s gonna go into,
you know, a commodity like gold
that hasn’t seen any upside
for almost over a year now.
It’s just been trending down, right?
Plantier, by the way,
just bought $50 million worth of gold.
Oh, Kathy Woods just increased your steak
for invest their planter steak
over the last few weeks to 33%
more than what it was previously.
All this is feeding into the opinion in
my best, in my best analysis, that we’re
gonna see commodities strengthen.
So you have this bullish Wick?
Yes, it’s a red candle.
But look at this.
This resistance for the gold.
We already saw one fake out.
It tested, it got rejected.
It got rejected a second time.
The third time you knock on a door.
Another thing, Paladium.
Look at this monthly chart on Paladium.
It’s been trending up since 2006.
This is, actually, I think,
more scarce than gold.
But more important,
look at this weekly chart.
This looks like the QQQ back in November.
It’s just staying above
this 50 week moving average.
You know, kind of sitting around the 20
week caladiums also of commodity.
I don’t know.
You look at this.
It’s showing downside
when a war is ending.
Are we gonna be expecting commodities
to strengthen or weaken,
especially in Afghanistan?
I’ll sell you right now.
People there are worried.
What are they gonna want to do?
I mean, are they gonna go buy Bitcoin?
I don’t know.
They might go buy some.
I mean, if I were them, I’d have
food and water and some ammo, right?
But they might go and buy gold and silver
to hedge against more uncertainty.
And then Chinese stocks are doing so
bad over the last few weeks,
you buy the fear.
Look how far below this 20
week moving average we are.
And Alibaba is an Oscillator.
It’s a beautiful oscillator.
It’s a beautiful company.
And if you guys really understand what’s
happening in China,
you know what I’m talking about?
They have their own Airlines coming.
And right now,
they use a lot of the American,
and I believe German companies
for flights like Boeing and stuff.
But, you know, when they have their own
private airline company that’s actually
already being built,
I think it’s in his final stages.
Imagine what they could do with Alibaba,
for example, with next day
shipping, for example.
I mean, there’s gonna be a huge competitor
to Amazon, in my opinion,
especially with the new Silk Road,
if you understand what that is.
You know, I was sell.
I wasn’t dating, but I took a girl out
of date from Russia, and she was
telling me about the new Silk Road.
And I watched a whole documentary on it
recently because of her mentioning it.
And it blew my mind to see how they can
take all this stuff from China, take it
down the train all the way to Europe.
And throughout the way there,
they’re given all of these
countries in smaller places that don’t
have the manufacturing capacity,
that China has these products at very low
cost and really stimulating the economy,
and that China has heavy
investment in Africa.
And so there’s a lot to say about China.
But what I will say is Alibaba,
I just made a purchase
on Ali Express the other day.
And with that being said,
I hope you enjoyed today’s video.
My name is Name Albeder.
Watchin this snipers channel if you Want
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I like this comment as a dude sell.
Er says, Dude, if ETH retraces back to 26
to $2800 levels,
I’m betting the farm baby.
Look what I said back to him.
I said, don’t bet the family farm.
Bet the family chair,
not the dining chair.
The patio one.
Thank you guys for tuning in today.
I hope you enjoy today’s analysis.
Let’s break that YouTube
like button algorithm.
And until next time, snipers out.