You have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Monday is we
have a massive indecision candle
today and we all know that 44.
800 is the major support level
for Bitcoin, with the monthly open at 470
as the major resistance
that the bowls need to conquer.
If we want to assume any further upside,
it is not a coincidence that we have this
extremely large Wick down all the way
below 44, 800 to 43,370, and then all the
way up to 47,000 on the four hour chart.
This is a massive indecision candle.
But notice how the buyers did
not get the Candlet volume here.
They were able to bring it to 470.
But there were more sellers than buyers.
This is extremely big puzzle piece.
Now the four hour chart can be quite
manipulative because institutions like
to hide their moves on different
time frames that aren’t as popular.
But even on the three hour chart,
there’s still more sellers than buyers
on this extremely important candle.
And then when we go inside of the six hour
chart where we know institutions love
to hide their volume,
it was also filled with sellers,
and so it doesn’t look like that four
hour candle is quite manipulative.
It looks like it truly was a candle
that proved to us that there were a lot
of sellers in this range from 44 800
to 47,000, where the monthly
open is sitting.
And that means that not only have we
cleared the order books in this range down
to 41, 950 when we first came down when
Bitcoin saw this 19% downside
candle on the 7 September.
But now we’re already clearing the order
books within this range after already
clearing the majority of volume,
telling me that if we’re gonna see
a downside scenario,
it’s gonna be a very violent one.
And that’s why this video is extremely
important because we’re gonna look
more into the smaller timeframes.
But we want to talk about this downside
scenario that we’ve been expecting.
If we don’t see strength at 44 800,
the next level of structural
support is at 36, 500.
It’s confluence with the gold en zone
retracement from the move
that took us from the $29,000 level all
the way up to this $53,000 level, this
80% upside move after the B word event.
This would be the gold en zone
of retracement between the 605
and the six one eight.
And so are we gonna be seeing a 20%
drop for Bitcoin price to 36,500?
That’s certainly on the table.
And the problem here is if we get down
to 36,500 on the daily chart,
we have the 100 day moving average and we
have the 52 hundred day moving
average above that level.
And so it puts us below all
daily moving averages.
But more importantly,
it puts us below the 20 week moving
average, which is home
base in a Bull market.
And so when you get below Homebase,
that’s a very big puzzle piece.
Notice how this 50 week moving average
where we initially bounced when Bitcoin
came down to 300 in May
is actually showing confluence.
Now inside of this range of 34,708
and 380, it’s actually sitting at 38,000.
So that’s an interesting puzzle piece.
But if we come down there and we knock
on the 50 week for a second time,
the likelihood of that door
opening becomes a lot likely.
Are we gonna be seeing Bitcoin
pushed down to 240 at some point?
That is also on the table if 44 800
breaks, which is why it’s
such an important level.
And I talked about us getting above 46,000
yesterday is a high probability,
and that’s exactly what happened.
But we can see now with the volume
that the sellers are strong here,
and so we couldn’t even get
the candle to test the monthly open.
That’s not a good sign
on the four hour chart.
The fact that we reversed before testing
the monthly open yesterday
at 470 is a sign of weakness.
The real question at this point is we
are inside of this flag pattern, right?
It’s a very garden variety market
consolidation after a major
move to to the downside.
Notice how we have this sort of support
level here inside of this channel is
flaggish pattern from the 49,700 drop.
Now just kind of going back and forth.
When is this gonna break?
Well, a lot of sell pressure here tells me
that the likelihood of this coming down is
more likely than the likelihood of this
coming back up and breaking
back towards 49 700.
So if we can get candles above 470,
that’s when we can start talking about
upside scenarios up until that point,
there is an extreme downside scenario
on the table, and we know that with this
move down for Bitcoin from 47,000
to the low that we’ve set so far here
right around the $43,000 level,
altcoins have not been
performing well against Bitcoin.
Specifically, when we look at what’s
happening to Ethereum,
we’re seeing further sell off.
If we look at the sell off in percentage
wise for just Ethereum,
which is going to also affect other
altcoins polka dot stellar Salano,
these are actually going to see more
amplified percentages compared to it there
because they have a smaller market cap.
We’ve already seen
correction from the recent high,
while Bitcoin has only really seen
less than a correction actually run.
Now, here’s the thing
that we know for sure.
If we break 44,800 and come down
at 36,500, there’s about 18% downside from
where the current price is for Bitcoin.
But for Ethereum,
the next level of supports at 1980,
which means there’s a 39% of about 40%
downside risk here a lot more than
Bitcoin, and that’s also going to be
amplified with other altcoins.
And the reason this would happen is
because the third of Bitcoin chart first
and foremost is yet to formatting you
high, signaling that altcoins are actually
not in the strength zone right now,
at least in terms of macro and trying
to determine whether we’re still
in altcoin season,
all coins are not in favor because
we didn’t get Ethereum,
the leading altcoin to get to new highs
that could have at least gotten
past the May highs didn’t do that.
And that’s causing this altcoin chart
that does factor in all of the top 100
outside of Ethereum in Bitcoin to sort
of have this double top so far,
we haven’t formed you highs here as well,
which means when you reach
the top, what comes next?
A downside move.
And so that’s why this is extremely
important for us to monitor right now.
If you think that this chart is just going
to start rallying to new highs,
then that’s when you can move
into the side of people expecting altcoin
season to continue and for all coins
to outperform Bitcoin and continue
to see massive gains.
I’m sure there are going to be those
isolated scenarios, like in the 2018
market where altcoins weren’t doing well.
But then Link was doing well.
For example, there’s always going
to be those isolated projects.
But the fact is this chart comes down.
Many altcoins are gonna be in jeopardy,
like Cardano Solana, focus out
some of our favorite altcoins.
And so this would coincide with Bitcoin
dominance double bottoming.
And that means that we would
see Bitcoin dominance increase.
And the last time we saw Bitcoin dominance
increase after an altcoin season,
it was because Bitcoin price
and the overall market was coming down.
The total market cap chart was coming
and that caused fear from altcoins
that were more risk on to move and inject
capital back into Bitcoin as a hedge,
which is more risk, I
guess you can say in the cryptocurrency
but when it comes to traditional markets,
this is a little bit different because
the DXY pushes up, which means that
institutions are less apt to have their
capital in more risk on stocks and so
forth that have high PE ratios,
for example, and they’ll move into other
things, like commodities, for example,
like gold, which is actually showing
strength while the DXY is
also showing strength.
So that would be a big,
big piece of the puzzle to assume
that maybe there is a little bit more time
before Bitcoin can see
some you all time highs.
And if the Bitcoin dominance does double
bottom, it would do exactly what the DXY
did so far and double bottom and get above
its 20 week moving average,
which means now it’s basically
started the race to the upside.
This is Homebase.
When you’re above the 20 week,
you’re in a bullish trend.
Dxy has already been in that phase.
Bitcoin dominance hasn’t.
We’re still below the 20
week moving average.
But if this changes,
that’s a big deal, and that’s why
we’ve been monitoring this so closely.
If this comes up,
I believe it’s only gonna be because
cryptocurrency market total valuation is
and that would be the narrative that we
could attach to why
Bitcoin Dominus would come up.
And so that’s an important
piece of the puzzle for us.
We’re going to cover
traditional markets as sell.
The revolving parts are a little bit stale
today, so they’re not going
to give us as much indication.
But let’s just first really talk about
Bitcoin right now in this extremely
important range on the more smaller
timeframes to determine
what we’re seeing right now and what
the likelihood is of us breaking
to the upside above 47,000, or if this
44,800 levels truly going to break here.
So on the hourly notice how we try to test
the Bulls by bringing a lot of by pressure
here that took us all the way to 47,000.
And that was a great opportunity to see
how strong the bears are right now
and notice how we almost saw double
the amount of sell pressure come
and immediately reject
Bitcoin back below 44,800.
When we got this bullish test
of volume coming in.
Finally, I think it was the most amount
of volume on the hour that we’ve seen
since this push down,
and that proved that there is certainly
a lot of sell pressure here and they don’t
want it above the monthly open
right now, which is at 47,000.
Now look what’s happening
because this happened.
This is signaled to a lot
of retail traders.
Okay, there might be more downside,
and now 44 800 is acting as a resistance.
So the question is this is about to break
in the next few minutes,
the next few hours.
I mean, that’s certainly a possibility
here on the Cypress Channel when you’re
at a major level on our charts,
which are always depicted in the red.
And I get these levels based on different
gaps based on different weekly closes
from candle highs and candle lows,
where we’ve seen a lot of volume.
I look at the volume profile and see where
there’s accumulation and distribution
to determine these major levels,
that these red numbers have been in our
charts for months and months and months.
So it’s nice to see Bitcoin come
and follow the rules when
they reach these levels.
But now it’s a resistance.
And so that tells me that 41,950s next.
But we’ve already cleared
volume here in this range.
This would mean that if we start to move
down, there’s going to be a more
violent push down below 40,000.
And the problem with that is now the range
takes us to 38,000,
and then we can finally probably find some
buyers here between 34,788 and 36,500.
So this is my area of interest for some
initial by pressure to come in.
But until 44,800 can really start to show
strength, the push to the downside is
on the table for Bitcoin right now.
And if this move comes to the downside,
my expectation is that altcoins are going
to get even more blood out and that having
capital in Bitcoin rather than all coins
right now is the safer
hedge against downside.
And if we start to move about 47,000,
this could change because that would mean
that Bitcoin strengthening and then all
coins potentially are not right
now going to start bleeding out.
And there could be more
of an extended altcoin season.
But without 47,000 that’s off
the table in my opinion, so
quickly to wrap up here with all coins.
I really talked a little bit about
Ethereum, but remember,
we’re in this large range.
Important levels here are 34, 54.
If you can’t get above that 1980s,
the next target and we
look at the Bitcoin chart.
What we want to monitor here is if 65,000
Sociate comes back into the
equation and this breaks.
That’s a confirmation that in the medium
term, the next couple of months,
maybe in the next year or so,
Ethereum will not be performing better
than Bitcoin, and the total market cap
chart is also looking like it’s forming
a lower high and topping out here.
We cannot ignore this as a potential lower
high, and that would assume that if this
starts to move down,
that we’re going to start seeing
the valuations of these crypto
currencies get bled out.
And I think that Bitcoin will
be the least affected by this.
And when we look at Bitcoin dominance,
the final confirmation of our opinion
with Altcoins will be us above 45%
dominance at the 20 week moving average.
That would signal the reversals most
likely here and then Ethereum dominance
and the others dominance we will continue
to isolate, but they both sort of look
topped out, especially now that we looked
at the Ethereum dominance chart yesterday
and noticed how we fail
to form any further highs.
We even got close,
but we failed to form highs.
That is a bearish opinion in my books.
The DXY, what we want to monitor is we
know that we’re in a bullish move right
now in the macro, and I think that if we
start to see 93.8 to break,
this is when we’re going to see
commodities and the cryptocurrency market
start really seeing the effects of the DXY
because we’ve been in this
range since July 2020.
I don’t think it’s really affecting
markets right now, but getting above this
range will really start to dilute
the evaluations of these assets.
With the DXY and the dollar strengthening,
we could expect some downside if we get
above 93.82. Until then,
we’re buying ourselves time,
which is why I think Japan is moving up
right now to see some new yearly highs,
and then China looks like it
wants to follow this path.
I sort of did a flag just like Japan,
so it could be the last
meme for a lot of these traditional
markets before we see this kind of topple
over, the Spy fivehundred already started
to show weakness coming down
to the 50 day moving average.
The real question is this
20 week moving average.
Is it gonna hold and it looks like we’re
gonna come and test that at some point.
If that DXY pushes up,
I don’t think that’s gonna hold this
scenario right here is gonna be massive
for the cryptocurrency market,
because that would be bad so far
that we’re bullish, we’re good.
So the train is going right.
If it walks like a duck,
if it talks like a duck,
then eight out of ten times it’s a duck.
But there are those two times
that you’re going to get fooled.
And so we really need to monitor this
week’s price action turnaround Tuesday’s
coming up tomorrow, so that’s
gonna be interesting to see.
But traditional markets, I would say,
are stale right now,
but are in a very sensitive area
with the DXY strengthening
on a more macro viewpoint.
And so let’s monitor what happens
the Bitcoin here, just to summarize
what I have been preaching here.
44,800 if it can’t hold,
I’m expecting 36,500 potentially is
the first level of area
of volume that we could see.
If we get about 47,000,
we can start changing some of these puzzle
pieces and dynamics that we’re assuming.
And I hope you guys
enjoy today’s analysis.
Thank you all for tuning
in to the snipers channel today.
Until next time.