Naeem Al-Obaidi
9 min readSep 30, 2021

Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Tuesday as we

are testing the most important
support level at 41,950.

So I had to get this
video out to you guys.

We are coming towards this 100
day moving average at $41,000.

But the DXY has yet to see
a break above 93 point 62.

And that’s gonna be the area that if we
break above this resistance,

we could potentially be seeing
a major move to the downside.

But since we’ve yet to get to this
resistance, are we just gonna be seeing

seeing Bitcoin flirt with this $41,950
level and then see some outside,

or are we going to be seeing the sell
pressure come in and the volume take us

down towards this $34,788 level to retest
a previous resistance as a support.

If you guys remember, we came
down from the $64,000 level.

We formed this flag in the $30,000 range,
and this has been a resistance level.

We broke above it.
We got to 54,000.

But now we are testing an extremely
important support at 41, 950,

and that door opens with volume on a four
hour candle close fully below 41, 950.

In my opinion, that’s
gonna be a major concern.

We’re gonna watch the DXY and also cover

some of the other revolving parts
of the cryptocurrency market to give you

guys a four dimensional analysis,
as we always do.

But first, I want to talk about what’s

happening here exactly
with Bitcoin at 41, 950.

So far, if we were to go into the hourly

chart, we have yet to really
see strong volume come in.

We are still seeing like volume

and realize this until we start to see
volume, the path of least resistance is

always going to be sideways
to a little bit higher.

And so the fact that we’re at 41,950 right

now is certainly a concern that shows some
weakness that shows that it’s a level

that the bears are continually
coming down to test.

And we’ve already seen the range below 41,
950 down to 400 cleared.

And of course, that tells me that if we

start to see volume, we’re gonna
slice right through below for 400.

Since we’ve already
cleared order books here.

And in my opinion, we really want to start
monitoring the extremely small time frames

at 41,950, because at any point in time,
volume can come in to the downside.

So far, we have yet to really
see that sell side pressure.

So I’m not necessarily
fully concerned right now.

But remember yesterday I said that we’re

not necessarily fully bearish
or bullish right now.

We are neutral bearish.

And the reason it’s neutral bearish is

because we are seeing a lot more
sell volume than by volume.

Notice on this three hour chart,
all of these large spikes of sell

pressure, these are institutional cell
volume bars.

And we’ve yet to see institutional buy
volume in these lower ranges,

telling me that there is
a another destination in mind.

And so I think that it’s extremely

important right now
to watch what happens here.


If we want to assume any upside
for Bitcoin at this point,

we have to get above the weekly open
at $43,100, and that is giving Bitcoin

some Grace because
initially it was 44,800.

And then, of course, 47,000,

that’s the major level of monthly open
that we really want to get to ETH.

We want to assume some more medium
term targets to the upside.

But just for the short term,
we want to get above 43,100 if you want

to assume any further strength between
the range of 41,950 and 44,800.

But the one thing that matters
about the current price action is the fact

that the door has now
opened back up to 38,000.

So the range that we’re playing
in is not 44, 800 to 41,950 anymore.

With this daily candle already breaching
41, 950, the range is 44, 800 to 38,000.

So that’s what I’m monitoring for Bitcoin.

And for those have been tuned
into the Cypress Channel.

You know that we’ve had an altcoin
prediction over the last three months

that Bitcoin dominance is an early
stage stages of a reversal.

And that’s why Bitcoin has
yet to form any new highs.

It formed a lower high.

It allowed a theorem
to also form a lower high.

But since we did not break new highs,
one of my friends told me this yesterday

like if a market is not going up,
it’s like a business.

If the business is not growing,
it’s coming down.

There’s no middle ground.

If it’s not going up,
it’s going down right.

And so since we’ve yet to see you
highs break for them in Bitcoin.

And of course, we can talk
about a ton of other altcoins.

They’re smaller market casts.

Those don’t really matter as much

in the macro when it comes
to the overall market.

The fact that we’ve yet to form you highs
tells us that the bear market has been

progressing since the start of
May when we topped out at 64,000.

And since then we’ve
yet to form you highs.

And now that we’re seeing the first
downside move for Bitcoin after forming

its lower high,
we’ve said that this move right here could

potentially be the move that bleeds
altcoins out back into Bitcoin.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing here
with Ethereum down over 1% with Bitcoin

only down about .5% right now you can
notice here the Ethereum Bitcoin chart,

the leading indicator for all altcoins
seeing new lows almost on a daily basis

now, and we’re struggling to get
above the weekly open at 710.


If we come to 650 Satoshis, this is gonna
be a huge breaking point for altcoins.

I think that is gonna be the catalyst

that will trigger the altcoins moving into
Bitcoin increasing Bitcoin dominance.

And all of this is coming
in line with the thesis.

When we look at the altcoins
outside of a theorem in Bitcoin.

Notice that we also fail to form new

highs, and now we’re seeing
some sideways price action.

It looks like we have a lower high here as

well, and we’re sitting at this week Lope
and not necessarily seeing strengthen.

Remember yesterday I told you about
the total cryptocurrency market cap tart.

The weekly open stayed at two point 125

trillion, telling me that there’s no
new money coming into this market.

It’s just money moving around
between different coins.

And that also validates the thesis that if
we’re not seeing new highs right now,

we’re not going up,
then the only other direction we could be

going in is down for the shorts
term and medium term.

So at this point,

with the total cryptocurrency market cap
heading towards one point 78 trillion,

if this level breaks to one one 3
trillion, this move right here

in the Total cryptocurrency market cap
chart percentage wise is about a 35% move,

in my opinion, going to be altcoins
bleeding out into Bitcoin Bitcoin,

seeing the least amount of downside
out of every other altcoin.

And that is exactly what
happened in 2017 18.

And so that wouldn’t be a surprise.

What we’re really gonna be monitoring now
as well is Bitcoin dominance failing

to form new Lo since May, telling me that
we’re in the early signs of reversal.

We’re expecting this double bottom.

So far it looks like we have
the double bottom here.

And remember, all it took for the DXY is

to double bottom and then it got
above its 20 week moving average.

And now it’s stated above its 20 week
moving average after the double bottom.

Bitcoin has yet to Seeo it

sell get above the 20 week moving
average when it comes to dominance.

But we’ve already seen the market
structure of a double bottom and we know

DXY and the Bitcoin is
extremely correlated.

Is it time for Bitcoin dominance to get
above that level,

meaning that we’re seeing a reversal
in altcoin season for the short term

and we’re gonna see money
moving back into Bitcoin.

If that’s the case,
we get about 45% dominance.

My target is gonna be the 200 week moving

average at 57% dominance where we know
Bitcoin loves to hang out and it

pretty much is in its most balanced
form when it’s at the 200 moving average.

This is homeostasis for Bitcoin
dominance in my opinion.

And so that wouldn’t be a surprise.

And the DXY once again,

as I mentioned earlier,
because we’ve yet to break above 93 point

82, this could just be another push
up to see sideways price action.

But if we break above 93 82,
that’s where I’d be very concerned for not

just the cryptocurrency market,
but also traditional markets.

And we’re already seeing the early
signs of this with Spy 500.

Notice here on the daily chart, we’re
back below the 50 day moving average.

This is a big deal.

Spy 500 is extremely correlated.

Bitcoin we saw that in March 2020.

And notice here how every time we came
to the 100 day moving average ETH got back

above the 50 day, we slowly crept further
up incrementally and we rescued ourselves.

And every single time
that happened, it worked.

This is the first time we tested
the 100 day moving average this year.

And so far right now we are rejecting
this 50 day moving average.

That’s a huge puzzle piece,
because we get back below 43.

35 for the Emini futures
contract for this Spy 500.

That could be a massive

better scenario for not just Spy 500,
but also the cryptocurrency market.

We really need to monitor this right now.

And other than that,
gold US oil other qualities not

necessarily doing much, not much
to look at their international markets.

Also kind of sell.

The real priority right now is to watch

the DXY and S Amp P 500 and to wrap up
Bitcoin at this point 41,950 it’s critical

level four hour candle fully below 41,950
is the confirmation that we’re going

to potentially see 34,788
before any sort of volume.

But remember, if we come down to 34 708,

the likelihood that the institutions are
gonna buy that dip is high because they

don’t want to just crash
price down on themselves.

And once we get there,
that could be a gold place to maybe put

in some long positions when
it comes to day trading.

When it comes to spot positions.

It could also be a gold place
to dollar cost average.

But just because we get to 34,708 day
and we bounce back up to let’s say,

the monthly open at 470 doesn’t mean we’re
not gonna see any further lows towards

maybe December or January of 2022,
because guess what, we get to this monthly

open at 47,000, and we reject
there’s a potential we come back down

towards this level of support
that dates back to March 2020.

It’s a macro support level,
and in my opinion,

this is an area of interest
for institutions to interpositions.

It’s where they probably
want to accumulate.

And so I wouldn’t be surprised
that in the more medium term they want

to drive price down to this macro
support level around that $26,000 level.

So that’s more in the long term.

My head is a dangerous place to be.

And I’ve been watching these charts for
over a decade now being in this market.

And so I’m not just going to go into crazy

downsides in here, but what I am saying is
41,950 showing weakness is a very,

very bearish sign for Bitcoin
in the short term.

In the medium term,
I expect 34,708 to at least find

some sort of by volume and some
institutional pressure here.

And really the confirmation of a short
term bottom at this point is gonna be

watching the six hour chart,
which is an institutional timeframe.

And for us to see some buy volume

that equates to the amount of volume
that dropped us 19% from 540,

we have yet to see any sort
of volume equate to that magnitude.

And until we can see a by volume bar

that equates to this,
I don’t know if I could say that there’s

any short term bottom in site right now,
so we’re not being bashed.

We’re being the Empire,
as we always are here

on the Cypress Channel,
giving you a balanced perspective

on the market Intraday and medium term,
and then macro.

We piece it all together,
and then we correlate it with other

markets to give you the four
dimensional analysis.

And I hope you enjoyed today’s analysis.

Guys, thank you all for tuning
in to the Snipers channel today.

I am in Dubai.
If you’re here in Dubai,

hitting up on Instagram
until next time, that’s it for today.

Snipers out.



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.