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https://youtu.be/j-xhUSTDVxE (Charles Hoskinson Interview)
00:00 bitcoin scenarios
10:45 traditional markets
Snipers, you have to see what’s happening.
The Cryptocurrency market today as
the Bitcoin price is clearly coming down
to test the extremely important support
level at thirty two thousand US dollars,
where we have this triangle formation
and we have this low and higher low.
And at this point, if thirty two thousand
were to break, we are going to see
another low form beyond this higher low.
And that would confirm
a breakdown scenario.
And if we were to take the schematics
of this triangle, because our Twitter has
been blowing up asking about the downside
scenario for Bitcoin, I’m going to go
into the exact downside scenario.
The schematics of this triangle says
that the twenty thousand
dollar level is on the table.
And notice how that shows confluence
with this extremely multi-year support
level that started from the initial drop
here when we saw the March 20,
20 price below four thousand US dollars.
And we found support here that shows
confluence at this extremely important
level that we are currently
testing right now.
And notice how this is also the level
where we have the previous all time high
at nineteen thousand seven hundred ninety
eight, looking at the finance chart
and then the eighteen thousand four
hundred and sixty dollars level, which is
also an extremely key level for Bitcoin.
And if we look at the weekly chart,
it is not a coincidence that this is also
showing confluence here with the one
hundred week moving average.
And so are we going to see Bitcoin come
down to the twenty thousand dollars level?
I’m going to talk about
the downside scenario.
And more importantly,
what we’re going to do today is we’re
going to look at levels inside of this
range between thirty five thousand US
dollars and twenty four thousand US
dollars that are also extremely important.
So we can understand where the volume
might come in if we start to see
the downside scenario play out, because
it is clear we have to address this.
And as an umpire, if we look at the weekly
candle on the 21st of December
and we look at the candle high,
you notice how the candle high is twenty
eight thousand four
hundred and twenty two.
And so we’re going to put this year as
an extremely important level at twenty
thousand four hundred and twenty
just to round the number.
And then if we look at the candle low
the week after on the twenty eighth
of December, the candle low at twenty five
thousand eight hundred and eighty
on the dot is also going to be
an extremely important level.
So we have that twenty five thousand
eight hundred and eighty dollar level.
And this right here is a pocket now that
Bitcoin has the potential to come in.
And in my opinion,
we’re going to see volume come in below
the thirty thousand dollar
level if we breach this low.
And I see that because if we go
into the six hour institutions sometimes
like to avoid the two hundred and forty
minute chart, which is the 4-hour chart,
because a lot of traders are on that chart
and so they will imprint their
moves on different time frames.
The six hour chart obviously shows
that there’s a lot of buy pressure here,
but we are starting to see the sellers
come in and bring the price down.
And so if this triangle breaks
to the downside at thirty two thousand US
dollars, we’ve already come
down to test the support.
And that’s why I had to get
this update to you guys.
You can see the candle and daily low right
now is thirty one thousand
seven hundred and ten.
But of course, on a 4-hour candle, we’ve
maintained ourselves at this support.
We haven’t yet broken the support.
So there’s no confirmation.
But this is coming towards a point where
Bitcoin is going to make a decision.
And for those that are tuned in to our
Twitter, notice how on our Twitter
we tweeted out Bitcoin
about to show weakness 13 hours ago when
the Japanese markets opened
down two percent for the day.
Gapping down the traditional markets
affect the Cryptocurrency markets.
So we sent out this tweet for those not
following us on Twitter, make sure to go
to the link in the description below.
Follow us on Twitter.
But when we look at what’s happening here
to Bitcoin, we have to realize that this
support level is being tested right now.
And if we see this break to the downside,
there is a pocket here at twenty eight
thousand four hundred and twenty,
which is going to act as an extremely
important support level for Bitcoin.
And below that, we have twenty five
thousand eight hundred and eighty.
And so inside of this pocket,
between twenty six thousand and twenty
eight thousand five hundred,
in my opinion, is going to be the area
that you would want to start dollar cost
averaging positions into Bitcoin
for a long term hold, because
in my opinion, there are several downside
scenarios and several levels
of severity that we could see.
And I’m going to condense them down
into three different scenarios.
If Bitcoin crosses that thirty two
thousand dollars support level once again
and we start to see hourly and 4-hour
confirmations, there is a potential.
We come down to twenty eight
thousand four hundred and twenty.
I believe that there will be some volume
in this area, but I also believe
that Wick’s are highly likely.
And so the first scenario would be a wick
inside of the pocket between twenty eight
thousand four hundred and twenty
and twenty five thousand eight
hundred and eighty if we see.
extreme level of severity with the sell
off, depending on the volume,
then we want to look at the pocket here
at twenty five thousand eight hundred
and eighty and twenty four
thousand U.S. dollars.
If we see the most severe scenario
of the downside,
in my opinion,
it is highly likely that twenty thousand
gets tested again at nineteen thousand
seven hundred and ninety eight.
And that would be my worst case scenario
for this bear market.
And I see that confidently because I
believe this is going to be an extended
bull market that has a mini
bear market inside of it.
I don’t believe the fundamentals have
changed for the Cryptocurrency
market long term.
I am extremely bullish.
And so this is the worst case scenario,
in my opinion, at twenty
thousand US dollars.
And it’s not a coincidence
that on the weekly chart,
what do we also have at that level showing
confluence? We have the one
hundred week moving average.
And so I think this was an important
scenario to address because it is
on the table and I have to be as
transparent as possible with you guys.
And so when we look at the more micro
timeframes on this weekly chart,
it wouldn’t be a surprise
to see that level tested.
And I believe there is going to be
a lot of volume below 30000.
And it’s really up to the severity of what
we’re going to see to determine whether or
not we’re going to see this play out all
the way down to the twenty
thousand dollar level.
And so we have to just monitor
the key levels on the way.
We know there are several roadblocks.
If we start to see volume at those levels,
that could be an indicator
that that’s where the downside.
This is an extremely bullish
market in the macro.
And I always want to maintain
that statement and that stance.
Even as an umpire, realize that I dedicate
my time to cover the Bitcoin
We do cover every other
market outside of that.
But I dedicate my time to Bitcoin
because I believe in this market.
And you guys are watching
the Snipers channel.
My name is Naeem Alobaidi.
Remember to smash the like button
for the YouTube algorithm.
So that’s the downside scenario
for Bitcoin. You like how I
just shoved it into the intro?
Well, now let’s look at what could we see
in the more micro timeframes
to confirm these scenarios?
Well, let’s first start
on the hour time frame.
So at this point, there’s clear.
So pressure with Bitcoin right now testing
the thirty two thousand US dollar level.
If we start to see continued sell pressure
and a breach of thirty two thousand,
in my opinion, we’re going to see one
of these downside scenarios play out.
We need a monitor twenty eight thousand
four hundred and twenty twenty five
thousand eight hundred and eighty
and twenty three thousand
seven hundred and ninety five.
Those are going to be the first areas
that we’re going to start
to see buyers come in.
And then, of course,
the twenty thousand dollar level or just
below that is going to be
the worst case scenario.
If we were to talk exact numbers,
we can see eighteen thousand six hundred
and sixty is the most absolute
bearish scenario I could see right now
based on what the chart is telling us.
And so that is the downside scenario.
Now, what are the early
signs of a rescue operation?
So I’d like to keep things simple.
There’s two scenarios, right?
The early signs of a rescue operation
at this point is reclaiming thirty
four thousand eight hundred.
If we can get above that,
that is very positive.
In my opinion.
That would be the most preferred scenario
because then this would still be
considered just another
higher low is as much as most
of you don’t want to hear that.
Yes, it’s very close to the previous high
or low, but it would still
be considered a high or low.
And so we have to keep that scenario
on the table for the upside.
If we reclaim thirty four thousand eight
hundred, then above the weekly open here
at thirty six thousand,
I think is when we’ll start to be a little
bit more comfortable with the market,
assuming an upside scenario.
But for now, we have
to address the downside.
And when we look at the environment
outside of Bitcoin,
we’ll cover Altcoins here.
Ethereum, of course, the main Altcoin,
just as we’ve been talking about
already coming down below two thousand
U.S. dollars with a low right now of 1890
for the day,
it looks like we’re going to head down,
possibly test the fifteen
hundred dollar level.
We want to monitor this chart because
that Damiana Bitcoin chart is showing
that we could see a scenario now where
Ethereum from its current point can still
come down up to 14 percent and still be
in a bullish macro flag, but still
see that fourteen percent downside.
And if we were to just match
that with the US dollar chart,
then we’re looking at a price of just
around that sixteen hundred
to fifteen hundred dollar area.
So could we see a Ethereum show
more volatility than Bitcoin?
I think that’s clear right now.
Which one is going to be the stronger
asset during times of fear
in the cryptocurrency market?
Bitcoin is always a stronger asset.
And you can see here that’s clear.
With the total cryptocurrency market now
showing a decisive break of the 200 day
moving average heading towards the one
point one three trillion dollars market
cap level, currently sitting at one point
thirty five trillion
dollars in market cap.
We want to monitor this chart Bitcoin
dominance here on the daily chart.
You can see we’re showing strength right
now, it looks like we want to come up
to 50 percent dominance that typically
happens when there’s fear in the market.
So I’m not saying that Altcoins are
in a bear market because I’m still
taking longus on Altcoins.
And I do that because it’s the only chart
that’s actually still in a bull market.
It’s above the 20 week moving
average and home base.
So Altcoins are still very good,
but you can’t be in these
fundamentally broke Altcoins is like what
I like to call them, like, you know,
these Naeem coins or these
Altcoins like dogecoin.
Those are the ones that going to see
that most severe downside
in these bear markets.
So stick to coins that have fundamentals.
And, you know, that’s a whole nother
topic outside of technical analysis.
But Altcoins are still doing fine
above the 20 week moving average.
So we’ll monitor this.
But let’s talk about what’s happening
to the traditional markets.
So obviously, this is all happening prior
to the market open,
just like we predicted yesterday.
I said if we start to see Monday open up
and we had a retest and we didn’t break
the previous weekly open with Bitcoin.
If you guys watch the video yesterday for
those subscribe to the YouTube channel.
I talked about the scenario, we’d come
down, retest that and just get rejected.
That’s exactly what’s happening.
We look at the traditional markets,
the DXY just doing a garden variety
market retest of an important level.
But it’s still in an extremely
bullish rally right now.
And this has only been progressing
for the last four days at this point.
And so this is a rocket
that has yet to be stopped.
And we need to watch this because right
now the markets are adjusting
to what the DXY is doing.
And it’s clear right now the S&P 500,
we did gapped down.
If we just pull up the SPY chart,
not the futures chart for the largest
traditional market in the world,
the strongest traditional market
you can see, we did gap down.
We could just come up,
fill this gap and continue to lower.
It looks like that’s
what we want to do here.
And I see that because the largest market
outside of the S&P, five hundred Japan is
how we predicted the drop before we
breached thirty six thousand yesterday.
I said we’re going to come
down because of what happened.
We saw Japanese markets open.
You can see we’re down showing
a lot of bearish price action.
And then outside of markets like the CSI,
three hundred also showing weakness.
So we need to address the weakness
in the markets,
especially traditional markets,
because it’s all happening because the DXY
and right now Bitcoin
is adjusting to this.
So we’re going to continue
to monitor the DXY.
But for Bitcoin right now,
we’re at a very critical level.
And so I wanted to just address the most
severe downside scenario that I could see
right now and also where we need
to get to to claim a rescue operation.
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video until next time Snipers out.