Naeem Al-Obaidi
8 min readAug 22, 2021

00:00 cryptocurrency market analysis
01:50 bitcoin analysis
05:30 altcoin cycle update

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You have to see what’s happening

to the Bitcoin price this Saturday as we
are testing the $49,700 resistance level,

and we are still in the
range of 44,840 9700.

So it’s the weekend.

We have to be a little bit more freestyle.

You know, the DXY is starting to move up.

Are we gonna be seeing this rejection at
49,700, or are we gonna break this level?

And if we break this level, what is the
potential for Bitcoin to reach 58,300?

We’re gonna talk about this today.

And then we’ve made a bold D prediction

this week that Bitcoin dominance is
in the early stages of a reversal.

And notice how we are starting to see sort

of this flat bottom here for Bitcoin
dominance, which is yet to form any

further low since May, when Bitcoin
topped out the $64,000 level.

And at this point,

if we see Bitcoin dominance starting
to rise and we see any sort of downside

in the market, that means that altcoins
are going to bleed more against Bitcoin.

Notice how the theory
in Bitcoin chart is at 65,900.

Satoshis, if we break 650 Satoshis,

our thesis is correct that Bitcoin
dominance is going to start increasing,

and this would lead other altcoins
to also see some downsides.

So that means that we don’t want
to be shorting Bitcoin at any point.

If we are gonna be shorting,

it’s gonna have to be altcoins
for those in the discord.

You know, we took this Cardano short
yesterday here at $2.52,

already hitting all profit targets
to $2.43. That is the way you want to play

altcoin season when it
is in the final stages.

And so, of course,
this is a gold prediction.

Many analysts are against this thesis
that Bitcoin dominance is going to show

strength, but we are maintaining
that on this channel.

So I want to talk about what
to expect here with Bitcoin.

Of course.
Now, let’s start on this weekly chart.

Notice how we do have this weekly candle.

We have sort of this bullish tail
at this 20 week moving average.

That’s a very positive sign.

We have a new weekly candle
opening in 24 hours.

Now, is this weekly candle
going to transform by tomorrow?

That’s a big question.

That is certainly on the table.

And understand that we’ve seen 12345 weeks
of straight green, and we know the DXY.

Is pushing up.
And so this is a major puzzle piece

that we have to keep on the table
knowing that it’s the weekend.

It’s the most manipulated.

Are we gonna see this break of 49?

700 before seeing downside?

Here’s what I’m watching.

Of course, what we need to do is
go into the smaller timeframes.

But before we do understand this,

we have a large range, about 49,700 that
could take Bitcoin to 58,353 U S dollars.

Now, typically, when there’s a range this

we will see some sort of resistance

at the midpoint of this range
around this $54,000 levels.

What I’m watching
if Bitcoin starts to close hourly and four

hour candles about 49,700,
I do expect 54,000 to come into play.

Now, I will also say that I’m gonna expect
a lot of resistance coming down from this

$54,000 level if we start
to see that price action.

And so realize this when we’re looking

at this four hour chart and we know
that we’re starting to test 49,700,

the question is, how is
Bitcoin reacting to this area?

Well, so far, we have this tail
of the candle previous to what we have

right now, bearish testing
the $49,700 level.

It looks like we almost have,
like this flat top sort of for me here as

well, with none of these candle bodies
being able to get above this small range.

And the only price action that took us
to 49,700 immediately saw a rejection

that, to me, is not a gold
sign on the four hour chart.

We also have higher high
forming and higher lows.

This is traditionally a bearish flag

that has more of a likelihood
of breaking down.

So on the four hour chart,
it doesn’t look the best.

Testing 49 to 700.

But this could change is the weekend
we have to be freestyle.

So understand, if we start getting any

hourly and four hour closes above 49 700,
that’s probably the confirmation.

We’re gonna see some volume come in not

just from the US dollar pairing
for Bitcoin, but also from Altcoins,

because we know Bitcoin dominance is
possibly in the early stages of reversing.

Now, if we see some downside,

I’m fine with Bitcoin going
sideways between 49 744 800.

However, if at any point in time we break
44 800, this would be the make it or break

it for me at this point,
because 44 800 breaking potentially puts

the scenario for Bitcoin to test
this monthly open at 41 950.

And we get down there.

Fear comes into the market that can bring
Bitcoin at 34 708,

potentially even see further lows
towards the end of this year.

So we are certainly in a very
critical range between 44 849 700.

So we truly want to monitor this range.

Now, here’s the other thing about this,

if Bitcoin starts to come down, what
is going to happen to all coins sell?

Understand that this is the first time
that we’re gonna be seeing another

downside move since Bitcoin saw
the downside move from 640 to 280.

That means that the sentiment

in the market has probably changed
with this move to the upside.

And if this downside scenario comes

on the table,
we could expect for the first time since

January, all coins could bleed against
Bitcoin instead of outperforming Bitcoin.

And the reason I say that is because if we

start to see the Ethereum
in a Bitcoin chart breaks 650.

Satoshis, that’s our first confirmation
that this thesis is correct.

And if that occurs, the theorem,
the US dollar price is also in a very

large range at 34 54 all
the way down to 1980.

If Bitcoin fails to break 49 700, I do
not expect 34 54 to break for Ethereum.

And at that point, what we want to monitor
on the daily chart is going to Bethis

100 day moving average,
which you can see here shows confluence

with this 50 period moving
average on the daily chart.

And that’s right at that monthly open.

That’s not a coincidence.

The $2500 level.

At this point, we want to monitor where

Bitcoin is at in US dollar terms,
because if Bitcoin still has room

to the downside, then this could be just a
support level that’s created within this

range to then come back
down and test 1980.

Now, I still have the opinion that at some

point or another,
those that think Ethereum is gonna flip

Bitcoin towards the end of this year,
that could come true.

We could see the thesis of Ethereum
flipping Bitcoin get tested with them

forming new highs
without Bitcoin forming you highs.

But that would all be determined
on the Ethereum in a Bitcoin chart.

First and foremost,
getting back above 650 Satoshis.

If we break 650 Satoshis now before we
move into the other’s dominant and Bitcoin

dominant try, I want to say if Bitcoin
breaks 49 to 700,

then Ethereum does certainly have
the chance to get above 34 54.

Maybe this Bitcoin dominance thesis is
a little bit premature,

and maybe we see Ethereum form some
new highs, maybe a new all time high.

But this would all only be happening
if Bitcoin can break 49,700.

So if we go into the total cryptocurrency
market cap chart, we have a large range

that we could play
in that can move us sideways.

Now, what really matters here, then,

is the Others Dominance
and Bitcoin dominance chart.

Others dominance has been
in a bullish trend since January.

And so since we saw this
bullish push to the upside.

Now we’ve seen a garden variety retest

of a major support level
that dates back to 2017.

And that’s right at that twelve 6%

dominance level where we’re currently
sitting is at 13.6%. So we’re seeing

a slight reaction at this support level,
which is garden variety.

That’s what we expected.

A lot of analysts that were a little bit

more two dimensional said that Altcoin
season was over and Bitcoin topped out

here, and they pretty much
said that it was over in May.

I said, no, I don’t think Altcoin seed

isn’t over because we’re not too
dimensional on this channel.

We look at all the markets
and we also correlate them.

And I said that because Others Dominance

was still above the 20 week moving
average, and it stayed closest to the 20

week moving average,
despite Bitcoin falling much and below

the 20 week moving average that we
were still in Altcoin season.

But now that we’re coming back up,
we’re seeing the garden variety reaction

that we expected telling each and every
one of you guys that all Quin season would

still intact if you
held your altcoins car.

Donald, just form you all time highs.

You were in the green, right?

If you listen to their analysts saying

that all Quin season is over in May,
then you weren’t in the green.

But now that we’re coming up,
I’m making another gold prediction here

that this could potentially be the lower
high that we’re looking for for altcoins

to see further downside continue in this
sort of bullish channel, the macro.

But in the short term,
this could push Bitcoin dominance above

the 20 week moving average
sitting at 46 3% dominance.

And that could show short term relief or
Bitcoin to get back to where it wants

to go, which notice how this is where
Bitcoin would love to be and it loves

to stick towards this
200 week moving average.

Notice in this 2018 run
up for Bitcoin dominance.

What did Bitcoine do sell?

It took a nonstop flight to the 200 week

moving average, and it stayed there
for months and months and months.

It loves to have a cup of coffee
at this 200 week moving average.

It sort of came up when we saw

the momentum into 2021 and then
altcoin season started.

But is it time for Bitcoin to come back

to homeostasis and come back to neutral
zone at this 200 week moving average

currently sitting right around
at 57% eliminates level?

I think that’s on the table to the gold
prediction that I’m making.

And with that, I appreciate each and every
one of you snipers tuned in the channel.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on Bitcoin

dominance in the comments below,
and you are all illegible to win a book.

Principles by Radar, one of my favorite
books on value investing.

If you want to win this book,
all comments are legible.

A non Nama says this boron will continue
with the King reasserting itself.

Everyone should be rooting
for Bitcoin dominance.

Thank you for the kind word.

Send me a message on Instagram.

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I appreciate each and every one of you
snipers tuned into the channel.

I couldn’t do this without you.

And until next time, snipers out.



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.