BITCOIN FINAL MOVE BEFORE MAJOR DUMP?! (& ethereum analysis)
00:00 cryptocurrency market analysis
02:40 bitcoin analysis
07:12 altcoins prediction
12:12 traditional markets
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You have to see what’s happening
to the cryptocurrency market this Thursday
as Bitcoin seeing a very nice 4% push
to the upside today above the 200 day
moving average, testing
this weekly Open at 47 $0.
This is an exact level that we talked
about yesterday for Bitcoin
to potentially come and test.
And with this move to the upside,
we are seeing Cardano here testing its
previous alltime high with a candle height
of $2.44 for those in the discord,
we did take a long here.
But what does this mean for the rest
of the cryptocurrency market?
With Ethereum not yet seeing a push back
inside of this market structure,
you can see we still have this major
resistance here for Ethereum to face much.
And below the weekly Open,
still seeing weakness with Ethereum
and Bitcoin chart, everyone’s saying, oh,
this is gonna break out
from this triangle.
But now we’re starting
to see this breakdown.
And that’s what we’ve been expecting here
because of our shift in Bitcoin dominance
perspective, assuming that we’re,
at some point or another,
gonna see this reverse,
whether it’s now or whether it’s,
you know, maybe coming down to form
another higher low, realize that we’ve yet
to form any further low since
this may top for Bitcoin.
And so with that being on the table,
and with the DXY being such a correlated
chart to Bitcoin dominance,
with the DXY moving up today
seeing highs that we haven’t seen since
March, we actually broke the highs here.
Does this show us that we’re in the early
signs of seeing strength DXY with
Joe Biden pulling out of Afghanistan
and with the US dollar potentially seeing
with interest rates starting to increase
towards 2023 stimulus and bond
purchasing slowing down tapering away.
Is that going to lead this DXY to push up,
which we know would most likely, as it did
in 2018, pushup Bitcoin dominance,
signaling that we might have
a pause in altcoin season?
We’re going to talk about all of this
today, and we’re also gonna talk about
what it would look like for Bitcoin
to truly see a successful rescue operation
to come and test 49,700,
because now that we’re at this
$47,000 level, that is a good thing.
But the puzzle piece is outside of the
market, like the DXY don’t look good.
And so we’re gonna be very neutral
today for the Bears and the Bulls.
You guys are watching the Snipers channel.
Let’s just dive into this Bitcoin
analysis first on the weekly chart.
Because we are fully above this 20 week
moving average, we haven’t even gotten
a chance to test it
with this weekly candle.
This closes in three days.
The cryptocurrency markets the most
manipulated on the weekends.
Understand that so far,
all we’ve seen is a garden variety retest
of the previous weekly Open,
with our candle low at 43 927
and the previous weekly Open at 43 795.
We pretty much got a retest and I would
even call this a bullish retest since we
didn’t even get to touch the exact number.
Of course, it was a few hundred Bucks
away, which is maybe .2 or 3%
But I think the biggest question right now
is we talked about this relief rally
that we’ve been seeing here over the last
few weeks for Bitcoin,
and a lot of people are expecting Bitcoin
to either break out of the structure
or continue to see highs.
I think the question we need to ask
ourselves right now is,
do we have a top in and realize that
we’re not going to get a postcard from
Bitcoin telling us that it’s the top.
It’s not going to give you
a phone call and sell you.
Okay, the top is in.
We have to determine that based on
the smaller timeframes, because that’s
what morphs into the larger time frames.
So I want to pull up this each
Amoco cloud on the four hour chart.
Notice how it’s been maintaining itself as
a support level throughout
this bullish continuation.
And at this point, we are starting
to get back above the Ichimoku cloud.
That’s a very good thing.
But we have this area at this weekly open
where there’s massive resistance
at $47,000, because if we can get above
this weekly open now, we can start
talking about a retest of 49,700.
And so if we do get above 47,000
with hourly and four hour candle
confirmations, we could expect 49,700.
Do I believe that we’re gonna see upside
beyond 500 if we get about 47,000?
I think that no, I think that what would
happen is we would come down test 49 704,
seeing a little bit more of a slow down
just because this is such a big range,
and it’s gonna really take some outside
market influence for Bitcoin
to move up to 58 353.
Of course, if we start to get to 49 700
and see strength now,
we can start looking at the smaller
timeframes to determine if we’re gonna see
potentially new all time
highs about 49 to 700.
But don’t be surprised if we moved 49 700.
Test it and maybe even see a way into the
$50,000 range if we get above 47,000.
So we know 47,000 now is the level
we want to watch for the upside.
Well, what about the downside?
Now we know that we have this 100 period
moving average in the four
hour that sell us support.
We talked about this being the place
that we don’t want to break the $43,800
level that’s the previous weekly open.
And I want to maintain myself
as the fact that now that we’ve come
and tested this level, we saw a reaction,
which is what we wanted.
If Bitcoin comes and knocks on this door
for a second time at 43 800,
I think the likelihood of us breaking
down becomes way more probable.
And really, this monthly open at 41,950
is going to be to make it or break it.
So, you know, we can kind of just put
that in blue there and realize that a
break of this previous weekly open
is the first sign of weakness.
And beyond that,
if we break 43,800,
we have to hold this $41,950 level,
or we can potentially see 34,788 or even
levels below 30,000,
depending on how that fear of this
downside would affect the market.
Since we’ve already seen
Bitcoin play in this range.
And so that’s what I’m watching.
We have to realize that the range
that we’re playing in right
now is 44,800 to 49 700.
But because we broke 44 800 yesterday
and we came to test the previous weekly
Open, we could also say that the range
that we’re in is 43 800
to 49 700 at this point.
So we’ve kind of extended this range,
and I think that because of this,
and now we’re seeing Cardano move
to test its previous all time high.
Remember what we talked about with our
videos a couple of days ago
about Bitcoin dominance?
The wheels will only have so much fuel
if Bitcoin can’t get about 470 to move
these gold coins to the upside,
because what they do is they take their
Bitcoin and they move
it into the all coins.
And it affects the altcoin verse Bitcoin
chart that pushes the US dollar price.
The upside brings in new liquidity and new
investors because they see the price going
up, but they only can do that cycle so
much if Bitcoin doesn’t
have enough liquidity.
So if we can get above 470,
that’s more fuel for all coins.
Here’s the thing then,
now that we’re going to talk about
Ethereum and all points,
if we come down and see this downside
snare, since we know the range of 43 800
to 49 700, here’s another
assumption we can make.
If we see Bitcoin stay above 43,800 all
coin season, it’s probably in the final
stages, but it’s still intact.
That’s why we’re still
taking longs, right?
We took a long on Cardano yesterday,
but if we break 43 800,
I’m gonna make the gold prediction
that all coins are gonna see further
downside than Bitcoin.
They’re gonna not perform as much.
And Bitcoin dominance
is going to increase.
And the reason I think that this
would happen if we come down.
And I never said this in January.
In January, I said this is the start
of altcoin season,
but we saw consolidation after
Bitcoin move to the upside.
That was fine for altcoins to see upside.
Then we saw another push after Elon Musk
to the upside and another consolidation,
and that was fine for altcoins.
But because we saw 640 to 280,
this wasn’t an upside move.
This is a downside move.
I believe that this move to the upside
that we’ve seen over the last few
weeks is the final move for alt coins.
And I say that because Bitcoin dominance
is so oversold and it is the King of this
market, and the DXY is moving up,
and it’s so correlated.
So I’m gonna make the gold prediction once
again if we break 43 800 and we see this
down to the ten, I think the storyline
and the market sent em is gonna change
for Altcoins, and we’re gonna see Bitcoin
outperform altcoins because
it’s gonna act as a hedge.
It’s gonna act as an area that is a place
where altcoins can move
and see less downside if we see
an overall market correction.
And so there’s a lot of reasons
for this prediction.
But with Ethereum,
I want you guys to realize this is
a leading indicator for all coins.
So as much as Cardano is moving,
that’s not the leading indicator.
It’s easier for the whales to move
Cardano because as a smaller market cap.
So that could be a food for thought.
That’s probably why it’s moving right now.
But if Bitcoin can’t get above 470,
I think it’s highly unlikely for Ethereum
to continue to see price
levels above 3300 US dollars.
Now, I still have
my shorts at 3300 and $15.
I think with my 3100 and $15 entry
and the 30 315 entry, we took both
of those on the discord for the shorts.
I have an average of 32 50 or
something as my entry for my shorts.
With my stop at break even right now,
I don’t mind if this
Ethereum price moves up.
If Bitcoin get about 47,000,
we see another nice rally for Ethereum.
I’m very fine with that.
Shorts gets cut off at break even,
and then my spot positions,
which I have not sold and will not
sell for Ethereum, are gonna increase.
And then we could potentially look
at taking a shorts here at the 34 54 level
where we have confluence with this major
resistance area, because I do expect
Bitcoin dominance to increase.
And I’m gonna keep saying that,
because that’s one of the boldest
predictions I’ve made
over the last few weeks.
And we, you know, certainly predicted a
lot of the other aspects of this market.
And with the theory in Bitcoin chart
showing weakness coming back down to 650.
So, SIS, if this level breaks,
that’s the confirmation that we need
to assume our thesis is actually correct,
and all coins are gonna see weakness
against Bitcoin, and that would
certainly affect others dominance chart.
But I don’t think others dominance once
again is gonna see
the worst time of its life.
I think that it could slowly kind of trend
down if Bitcoin dominance starts to move
up before we see that scenario where
the Ethereum flippers get their opinion
tested, and we see Ethereum form new all
time highs before Bitcoin
before the end of this year.
I think that’s on the table
we’ll talk about that.
I’m not going to spend too much
on that right now, because first we need
confirmation right now that this Bitcoin
dominance is not gonna
firm any further lows.
And this next low is just
gonna be another higher low.
If that’s the case,
expect Bitcoin dominance to move up.
Total cryptocurrency market capture.
We can expect sideways price action.
If Bitcoin does not get about
47 $0, we got about 47 $0.
Everything changes, I think.
And so it’s a very critical time.
I have to get this video up to you guys
as soon as I saw 470 being tested.
And then to quickly talk about a why
we know this is moving up right now.
That’s very correlated to Bitcoin
dominance, and it’s already affecting
Spy 500, just like we talked about.
We’re coming already
to test this 50, period.
Asian markets have already seen,
you know, a lot of downside.
Could expect some downside
here for Spy 500.
If the DXY keeps moving up, that would
affect the cryptocurrency market.
And so that’s some food for thought.
Thank you all for tuning
into the Snipers channel today.
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I’m gonna wrap up this video.
Devis says, can’t wait to meet
my fellow snipers on the moon someday.
Send me a message on Instagram.
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And I hope you guys
enjoyed today’s analysis.
I certainly appreciate each and every one
of you, and I certainly enjoy doing this.
And so I’m excited to see what happens
here between the range of 49,700
and the $43,800 level.
And with that,
until next time, snipers out.