Naeem Al-Obaidi
17 min readSep 9, 2021

Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
under the Bitcoin price this Thursday as

we are seeing some action towards this
monthly open at $47,000,

but we’ve yet to see any decisive price
action, and we are still trying to stay

above the 200 day moving average,
sitting right at that $46,000 area.

We’ve already come and tested
below the 50 day moving average.

And so we’re at a very critical point,

as you guys can see here with this very
tight squeeze between 47,040 6000 and this

is really gonna give us us a hint as
to what Bitcoin wants to do over the next

few weeks, because if we break this tune
day moving average at 460,

the likelihood of us coming to test
the support of this previous resistance

from the initial drop in May, which was an
extremely hard resistance to get above.

When we finally got above it,

we did confirm it as a support,
but for us to come down below the 200 day

moving average again,
the Bears would have the chance to retest

this level around this $36,500 level,
and that is gonna be a very big puzzle

piece if we see price action below 46,000,
because if we get down to this level,

who’s to say
we come back up to the monthly open around

47,000, maybe in October, November,
and then from there,

if we can’t get back up a 470, what
if we see further lost for this year?

We don’t come down below 20,000

the previous sell time high,
but maybe we come down to test the levels

that we didn’t get to test here
at this 25,000 to $23,000 area.

We have a lot to look at today because
the micro timeframes are what’s gonna give

us the hints as to what’s gonna happen
in these more macro timeframes as

everything more from the smaller
timeframes into these larger time frames.

And so if we go into the six hour chart
where we know institutions as you guys,

no, that have been tuned in cyber channels
they love in printing their volume on this

chart, we’ve yet to see crazy amounts
of by pressure equate to the sell pressure

we saw here with this 19% downside candle
that we saw the other day at this point.

If we come into the four hour chart,

you can see here from this indecision
candle on the six hour to where we’re

at right now, we’re rejecting the 200
period on the four hour chart.

That is a very big puzzle piece,

and the monthly open here is
the most important level.

It is the first road block for the Bulls

to be able to see any further
upside for Bitcoin.

You can see we saw this rejection
candle when we tested this monthly open

and we’ve yet to get any hourly or four
hour candles fully above the monthly open.

I’m talking Wick and body of the candle

and that’s what I’ve been talking about
ever since we came down here two days ago.

And so this is the confirmation
we need to get above 47,000.

If we want to assume a retest of 49,700,

we’re at that point we can determine if
this is gonna be able to hold,

because when you reach your destination,
you either turn right back around or you

have a cup of coffee at that destination
and then continue in the same direction or

possibly reverse depending on what happens
in the micro timeframes like we saw here

at the $49,700 level
initially with the weakness.

Yes, we did see some price action

on the upside, but it was a Bart
head weekend manipulation pattern.

And then from there we did see the actual
pushed to the downside.

And so what we really want to monitor

right now once again, and I’ve been
saying this is a 47,000 to $46,000 level.

The $46,000 level is significant because
that is the 200 day moving average.

And you can see we did get one hourly

candle with a bearish tail initially
below this tuned moving average.

Is that a hint telling us where
Bitcoin wants to really head towards?

Because remember, traders can control

the short term price action,
but they can’t control the macro.

And so when the institutions start their

move, they’re not just
gonna go all at once.

They’re gonna allow some time for these

type of flaggish patterns to form before
continuing to the possibly same direction.

Of course, because we’re having a cup
of coffee at this 200 day moving average,

it certainly tells us it’s
not the final destination.

If it was, we would have came down

and came right back up and it would have
imprinted itself as a level of support.

But because we’re having a cup of coffee
and in the micro timeframes we’ve yet

to get confirmations above the first
road block of the monthly open.

That’s telling me this cup of coffee can

potentially and is more likely right
now at this point to see some downside.

But here’s the thing we get above 47,000.

Then we can monitor how 49,700 at we do
have the previous recre on at 48,765 there

as well, but I think that 49,700 really be
the level to give us a little bit more

of an understanding of what this
move truly wants to tell us.

Now we start to see downside price action
because we have this week,

as I talked about yesterday,
that already came down towards the range

of 41, 950 and 44,800,
we can expect that the orders inside

of this range have already been filled
to the sell side and to the buy side.

Therefore, I don’t expect
volume to come in.

If we start to cross below 46,000 would

decision 44,800 will probably be where the
volume is really gonna start to pick up.

And then at that point I expect us to come
to the range that would take us towards

the $38,000 support level,
possibly Wick into the $36,500 level

because I don’t expect volume to come
in in this range of 44,008,

hudred and 41,951 again,
because we have this Wick,

and from here we could potentially assume
a retest of 47,000, because once again,

we don’t want to see
just the price action for like this.

And institutions certainly don’t.

And they’re not going to allow
that to happen, but they certainly will

allow these flaggish type of consolidation
patterns in between their moves.

And so this is really
what I’m monitoring here.

And I’ve been saying this
since we got about 49,700.

My concern has been the fact that if we
do see the move to the downside,

which we did, that we were going
to come down not to test the 45,000.

46,000, whatever level is at these higher

ranges, but we were going
to come down to 41,950.

That’s exactly what happened.

And the reason I think that that was sort
of my prediction was because of the 80%

pushed to the upside that we saw
without any sort of real correction.

And so the other part about this now is we

did see the first downside move,
so now we can test our opinion

on dominant, and that’s what this video is
going to also cover in the end,

because we’re a four dimensional
channel and sell quickly.

Look at traditional markets
and commodities like Gold and US oil

to see how that’s correlating
with this market.

But we do want to talk about Ethereum

because Ethereum is giving us some puzzle
pieces, but it’s very similar to Bitcoin

in the fact that the
monthly open is at 34.

And that is not a coincidence at the level

it’s been on our channel
for a very long time.

It’s a very key level.

It is the resistance of the range
that does have a support of 1980.

It’s a very large range here.

That’s why we’ve just sliced through this

range like butter every time we’ve come
above 1980, initially here and then ETH

second time recently,
every time it was like butter.

And when we came down,
it was also like butter.

And so that’s the problem with 34.

In my opinion.
It’s that if there’s weakness below here

this monthly open that could really affect
Ethereum to the fact that it could come

all the way down to 1980, and that’s
a big area of risk for the long side.

And so I think that it’s quite clear

at this point that Ethereum is in the very
similar position as Bitcoin,

where Bitcoin has a monthly open at 470,
and Ethereum has its monthly open at 34.

And it’s not gonna see a decisive move

unless Bitcoin can get above
470 and its monthly open.

I think that Ethereum will start to head

back towards the weekly
open and retest the 39.

59 level, but realize we do have
another roadblock here at 36.

50 for Ethereum to face for the Bulls.

And if Bitcoin does not get above 470

decisively, that’s when the risk really
comes into play here for the Ethereum

coin to come below the monthly open at 34
54 and then possibly

start its way down towards the 1980 level,
and that’s a Bitcoin crosses below 46,000.

And so with that when we saw this move

to the upside from 1760,
a meme is performing better than Bitcoin.

And our thesis has been that if we see
downside in Bitcoin at this point after

the run up from the B word event till now,
that this time because we’re seeing

the downside after we came
from a corrective move from 64,000

to 30,000, that the sentiment
is gonna shift.

And so seeing more strength made sense.

That’s why I never said altcoin season is
over until we came up for others dominance

to form the lower higher,
the higher high that we were expecting.

And this is very interesting.

I’m gonna show you right now the altcoins

outside of Ethereum Bitcoin in the stable
coins is actually possibly on its way

to form a higher high before
this next move for Bitcoin.

That would be a very interesting scenario

because that assumes a little bit
more time for these altcoins.

But Ethereum dominance
is not doing as well.

And so realize this move down

could affect Ethereum to see
performance that is worse than Bitcoin.

And that would be a big puzzle piece,

because that means that ETH
better hedge to hold is Bitcoin.

You’ll see less downside versus Ethereum.

And when a lot of the analysts are saying
that the Ethereum to Bitcoin chart is

ready for a flip, I’ve maintained myself
just like we did with others dominance

when it was staying above the 20 week
moving average, that altcoin season wasn’t

over, that we haven’t seen anything real
significant other than sort of double top.

Here for the theory to Bitcoin chart.

This push back down happened after Bitcoin
finally made it to move down,

which our thesis has been the fact
that this would only play its part Bitcoin

comes down, and so far the theorem
to Bitcoin chart has only form a double

top lower high, higher high,
whatever you want to call it.

And that means that there’s still
a potential we have rejected a resistance

for us to come down to 650 Toshi’s
and potentially in a more macro term.

See this fall below 65,000.

So she’s meaning the Ethereum will not

perform as good as Bitcoin in the final
stages of this beer market.

And saying that lightly because we’re

closer to the end,
the start if 64,000 truly was the short

term top and that 54,000 or 53,000 was the
lower high before the final push down.

That means we’re way closer
to the end than the start.

So it might be a better thing to assume
that we’re still in this beer market.


The Ethereum dominance chart right now,
as we finally saw the move Bitcoin,

it’s very different than the altcoins
outside of Ethereum in Bitcoin because

here we’re seeing sort of this ascending
triangle where the other altcoins are sort

of seeing a double top
ish type of pattern.

Whether this is going to be a lower high

or a higher high,
I think that this is going to be exhausted

soon, and this is all the coins
outside of Ethereum and Bitcoin.

And so with the ETH dominant chart looking
different, we want to monitor this.

If this comes down,
then that means that our additional

part of the thesis that maybe a theme this
time around could be a hedge

for the first time
with Bitcoin where altcoins will float not

just back in typically, but also into a
theorem that didn’t happen in 20, 17 18.

Ethereum did suffer with all
the other all coins so that.

Spy very bold statement for me to say.

And so I think that’s a lot
less likely to happen.

But we’re gonna just separate a theory

moving forward because it’s
institutionally graded.

It has semi futures.
Of course.

You guys know I’ve been talking about
that, but if this breaks down,

it could lead the other altcoins to also
finally break down.

But we know the patterns
are different here.

So Ethereum, you know,
price section has always been a gold

leading indicator for how other
altcoins are going to be.

Like when a theory moved up,

then all the other old points
Cardano salon all moved after.

And so this is the chart that factors
in Cardano Lana and so forth.

It looks like it’s ready to form
this lower, higher, higher, high.

And so it’s just a matter of time
before the gas tank runs.

I think Bitcoin sees another push below.


This one is done because you can see here,

look at this rise and sell pressure
that came in with that initial move.

So we have to keep these puzzle pieces

in mind as much as it looks bullish,
it looks like the opposite of Bitcoin

dominance where Bitcoin dominance
wants to kind of reverse here.

It has a double bottom formation.

And more importantly,
we know Bitcoin dominance is a good

chart to correlate with the DXY as
it has a very high correlation.

And the DXY is already sort of,

I want to say, decoupled
away from Bitcoin dominance.

But DXY is at a point where if it breaks

93 82, we are back in a very strong
uptrend for the strength of the dollar.

And so with the 2017 to 2018 rally when

the DXY pushed up, it also
pushed Bitcoin dominance self.

And so the DXY is giving
us kind of like this

precursor to kind of predict what
path Bitcoin dominance wants to follow.

And we know Bitcoin dominance loves
to stick at this 200 week moving average.

It doesn’t like to stay around
the 20 week moving average.

It likes to come and stabilize itself.

And so that’s around the 57%
dominance level right now.

And so,
you know, like we saw in the 2017 18,

he actually pushed up in the
Bitcoin diamonds followed.

Is this kind of the last
stage for the Bitcoin dominance before

it’s gonna get above this 20 week
moving average and start it’s reversal.

I don’t see this happening unless Bitcoin
prices coming down,

there has to be a narrative
attached to all the price action.

What matters more is the technicals,
because that’s black and white,

it has to follow the rules of Fibonacci
or whatever you might want to study.

Elliot Wave analysis.

But the narratives that people come up
with on Bloomberg or you go,

you watch the news are always what they’re
going to attach to the price action.

There’s always a narrative that typically
needs to be a narrative for people

to justify what’s happening
in the technical and so it’s more of

black and white when it comes
to technicals, and it’s colorful when it

comes to narrative because
it could be anything.

It could be a black Swan event.

We’re going to look at the commodities
and traditional markets very quickly,

but now that we’ve kind
of covered the overall

idea of what is happening right now
with this first move to the downside

for Bitcoin since this rally to upside,
let’s look at this hourly time frame.

Let’s see how this rescue operation could
potentially play out and what hence we’re

getting right now to know what’s going
to happen in the next 24 hours and 48

hours because everything will start
to more from these smaller timeframes.

First one to start on the four
hour chart specifically.

And by the way, we could look
at Ethereum in as much depth as Bitcoin.

We can say, oh, look,
we have this bullish tail forming here,

but the Ethereum price is
going to be dependent on Bitcoin.

That’s why when we see these transitionary

phases in the market,
I don’t like to look at altcoin charts

anymore because there could
be a lot more manipulation.

It’s a smaller market cap.

But if we follow Bitcoin, we can assume
the real direction things are going.

And so Bitcoin it did have this bullish,
I would say on the four hour,

you know, Wick and body coming
towards the monthly open.

But now look, we got a rejection just
as strong pretty much with this next four

hour candle closing in an hour where we
have a bearish tail and this push down.

And so, you know, the four hour chart
is what all the traders look at.

Institutions don’t like to really print.

There moves on that chart.

I like to look at a three hour chart.

We have this bearish tail
coming towards this monthly open.

We on this next three hour can have yet

to even get back towards this monthly
open, telling me that this could have just

been right now, the test of the monthly
open to come further down.

This was a nice candle, but I think it
took a lot of time for this to happen.

And what we’re seeing now after this test

of the monthly open is it’s not
necessarily showing strength.

And so

when we go into the 1 hour chart,
you can see we have this indecision candle

at the monthly open
and we couldn’t even get an hourly candle

to close fully above
the monthly open so far.

Ever since we came down,
we had one almost try to,

but then it was a bearish top
that led to a test of 44,800.

This time we get it indecision candle

and then a bearish body
looking like continuation.

So we’re on a tight spot.

And when it comes to this 46,$000

to $47,000 range,
that’s what you guys need to monitor

in order to determine
the next move for Bitcoin.

And so this is the most important
range right now above 470 decisive.

And if we can come back up to 49,700,
we can start to assume this may have just

been a short term pushed
down before further upside.

But we start to break 46,000.

That’s where I start
to get concerned here.

And as we talked about earlier
for Ethereum,

it’s all going to be dependent on Bitcoin
total cryptocurrency market cap Cuart.

I mean, it’s going to be hard to say
that this isn’t a top candle here.

And then it also falls in line with just a
lower high that has formed so far.

We haven’t seen new all time
highs for the total market.

And that’s a puzzle piece,
because that means is there a new capital

actually coming to this market,
or are we just seeing capital that has

already been in the market,
switch hands and sort of kind of move

in different places,
cause more FOMO into newer coins.

And then now, you know,
form a lower high to come back down.

That’s a very tough one to say here.

Total market cap chart is above the
monthly open and previous weekly open.

It’s going to really
depend on Bitcoin there.

Once again, that’s why Bitcoin is
fighting that monthly open too.

And then so Bitcoin diamonds,
we will monitor.

We did see a lot of buyers come
in from the initial move down.

That’s all we need to know to say.

Okay, the thesis we have could potentially

be on the table that this
is starting to reverse.

We’re going to monitor this over the next

few days very closely to see if we can
get above this 20 week moving average.

That’s the final confirmation that altcoin
season is coming to a shorts term end.

And then, of course, we want to monitor.

How is a Ethereum going
to react to the other altcoins?

I going to separate itself if we see

Bitcoin dominance move up, or is it
just going to do what it always does?

Which is it moves with other altcoins.

Is it still an altcoin,
or could we really isolated now that’s

a question that I will be
determined here real soon.

Now the DXY.

We’ve been monitoring the DXY for a very

long time on this channel because as soon
as we started to see us come,

we knew that we rejected the 20 week,
and soon as we started to come down

towards this area of interest
of the 2017 2018 bottom for the DXY ad.

This was the 2017 20 teen
Bull market for crypto.

That’s when we started to get a little
bit concerned for the DX in saying that.

Okay, we might be in early stages

of reversal for those that have
been really tuned into our channel.

It was very similar to the way that
monitoring between domains right now.

We I kept saying, all right,
we’re gonna have to monitor.

We’re gonna have the monitors.

We’re gonna have to monitor this.

And then eventually we
started to see this move up.

And then we said, thank God we’ve
been monitoring this and guess what?

It moved up.
And then it pushed back down.

We knew that we already got back to book

21 after the first time
since the fear came in.

And that was the puzzle piece that we
needed just to get above it is all we

needed to know,
not the fact that is coming back down

below, even though we
came back down below.

We said, okay, but it doesn’t matter.

We already came back above it.

And so we double bottom.

This was the bottom or the top for Bitcoin

in May,
and since then we’ve only seen narratives

in the news, let’s say, interest rates
or cutting budgets, increasing taxes.

We’ve only seen the narratives

move towards the side that the dollar
has the chance to strengthen.

And the technicals have
followed that narrative.

And so this is very interesting to watch.

And that’s why we’re going to be

monitoring this closely,
just like Bitcoin does.

It likes to come back to its
200 week moving average.

And the DXY, I think pushing out of 93

point 82 is what it’s gonna take to affect
traditional markets,

which is the only thing right now buying
us time in the cryptocurrency market.

And so they’re talking about stopping

and tapering off the bond purchases
and the mortgage backed securities.

The Feds stop printing money
and buying all that stuff.

Is that going to be the catalyst
for the DXY to get of 93 point 82?

We attach the narrative and then we
finally see this SMP 500 correct.

It’s not looking strong so far,
but we can’t say it’s looking weird.

It’s just sitting above
the 20 week moving average.

But I think that that right
now is what’s buying us time.

And if this DXY finally decides to move
above 93 point 82, I don’t believe the Spy

fivemeter is going to be able to stay
above the 20 week moving average.

I think at that point we start to see
the potential corrective move,

and that would fall in line
with them tapering off.

So we have to start kind of thinking

of these narratives
and gold is strengthening.

We are sitting at this turn to remove
average and more importantly,

breaking the structural support
resistance that’s now support.

So that is an indicator that there’s
a little bit more fear

in institutional capital with risk
on assets, and they’re moving towards

commodities like gold that are a little
bit risk off and have more stability.

And so this is already showing us a little
bit of what the institutions are doing

right now, which is what matters
to see where they’re hedging

like I said, until the DXY really moves
above that 93 eight, two level,

I don’t think traditional markets
are gonna be too affected.

That’s why we’re seeing strength in Japan.

It looks like China is gonna follow

and then zero 100 still being
able to maintain itself.

They’re still printing a lot
and buying a lot of these securities.

But when that ends,
that’s going to be the biggest question

of the DXY coming back about 93.2,
is that the last draw for Bitcoin?

And then we potentially
see that downside center.

I don’t know.

But what I do know is we
are fighting right now.

The monthly open at 47,000 and the ten
day moving average at 46,000.

And this is going to be giving us the true

direction of where Bitcoin wants
to go and more medium term.

Which is why this is such a critical time.

And I know this video went a little bit

long, but as the markets start to become
a little bit more intense,

we’re going to ensure to cover
a little bit more in depth.

And like always,
we’re a four dimensional channel.

So we try to cover every market because

they all do matter, and they
all correlate with each other.

And with that, thank you all for tuning
into the snipers channel today.

I hope you enjoyed today’s
analysis until next time.

Snipers out.



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.