Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Wednesday,
as we are still fighting at this $46,000
level where we have the 200 day moving
average already seeing two
Wicks below this level.
We also tested the 50 day moving average
with today’s candle down at 44,400.
And notice that when we go into the four
hour time frame,
as I talked about yesterday,
this $46,000 level is extremely important,
and we’ve yet to really see any decisive
four hour candles indicating that Bitcoin
wants to move away to this higher range
above the monthly open sitting
at this $47,000 level.
And so we have to realize that when you
come to a specific area and you start
to have a cup of coffee,
that means it’s not the final destination,
and you typically either continue
in the same direction or you start to see
a reversal and you’ll start to see
the early signs of that based on the micro
timeframes, because everything more
from the smaller timeframes
into the larger timeframes.
But we’ve yet to release see Bitcoin say,
okay, that’s it 44,
800 is where I want to turn around
at because we don’t have any decisive
candles here above the $46,000
level on the four hour chart.
So I want you guys to realize that some
people are saying is this
opportunity to buy in.
And we’ll realize when we go into the six
hour chart where institutions love
to imprint their volume versus the other
four hour time frame,
1 hour time frame and more popular time
frames, there’s a massive institutional
sell order here that brought
us down with this
candle to the downside, and we have
yet to see buyers equate to that.
So we really have to ask ourselves
a question here,
and that’s the fact that is this a good
opportunity to get into Bitcoin or is this
a good opportunity to take a step back
and cash is a position and to just kind
of say to ourselves, all right,
there’s a lot of risk here if we come
to shorts this area at this 200 day moving
average is a high chance that we could see
a bounce up,
and that wouldn’t be a good play.
The shorts opportunity was
here above the $50,000 level.
I took a shorts above 50,000.
We took a short on Ethereum at around
the $4000 level, and that was great.
We could continue to shorts.
However, until we get a confirmation
of what Bitcoin wants to do here,
it’s a very risky place to be,
even for the longs side,
because understand this,
we have two candle Wicks below the 200 day
one below the 50 day moving average,
and one today that tested the 50
day moving average at 44,400.
And so it’s signaling that there’s
some downside pressure here.
And we know that we’ve had
tremendous rally about, I’d say,
rally to the upside if we were
to calculate this just from when we really
initially saw the B word event into where
we’re at now to the upside, is it time to
see a push to the downside for Bitcoin.
And if that’s the case,
what would be the downside target?
I’ve been telling you guys this.
If 49, 700 breaks and we were above 49,
700, I said if it breaks,
I don’t expect this to be a light break.
And that’s exactly what happened.
We pretty much came down to 41, 950.
The real downside target now,
based on this candle here this reversal
candle is the best way to put this.
You can call it a top candle.
I mean, this is a 19 candle to the down
side before Bitcoin had the chance
to get to new all time high.
So we have to be careful here
because this could potentially
be a lower high forming.
And so that’s really the concern
on the longs side,
because if we start to see Bitcoin cross
below these other moving averages,
now we have this area of confluence
with this market structural resistance
that held Bitcoin down from the drop
in May all the way to the end of July
where we started to move away from it.
And there’s confluence here
with 34,788, 36,000, 538,000.
So to assume that eight
week Bitcoin at 46,000 could potentially
see further downside,
I would say the first area of interest for
me as a target would be 38,000 to 34,788.
Now here’s what I think
the problem is with that.
Understand that shorts term price action
can be controlled by every day retail
traders and institutional traders
in the market where I primarily
you can’t necessarily do that.
And so if this here ends up being
the corrective waves where you
pretty much got to the gold zone.
If we were to pull the Fibonacci,
this is the gold en zone here based
on the retracement from the 64,$000
to $28,000 level, this would be
the next impulse that could potentially
even bring us below 34,708.
And then we can even test this macro
support level where it dates back
to the March drop
and notice how it held Bitcoin
at the $10,000 range from the March drop,
and then we come back down.
Potentially, we don’t cross
below previous alltime highs.
It goes in line with the thesis
that Bitcoin will not come back down below
20,000, but coming to 23,795 at the end of
a bear market is a very big possibility.
If this right here is a lower high,
and that’s where I see the concern
at this exact price range.
I believe it’s a no trade
zone just for the time being.
This will change in 24 hours,
possibly in 48 hours.
But until we can start getting some
confirmations in the micro timeframes
that 46 or the 200 day moving average
wants to hold as a support,
then we have to keep this scenario in mind
and not get fooled at these levels
in between at 41 950, 38 or 36.
534, because this is where
the institutions take
advantage of retail traders.
They bring the price that they change
the sentiment from bearish to bullish.
And then everyone’s bullish on the next
move down and they start entering in and
accumulating at these higher levels.
And then smart money will come
in at the actual accumulation zone,
which right now it could certainly
be that 25,000 $24,000 level.
And so keeping this in mind when it comes
to a macro sense,
and the importance of what we’re about
to look at in the micro timeframes
is what I want this theme
of the video to be.
And then we’re going to cover the rest
of the markets because we’re four
dimensional on this channel.
We predicted the DXY pushing up was
going to push the crypto market down.
That’s exactly the reason
we’ve seen this push down.
And so we’re going to talk about
traditional markets like thatand,
then Ethereum, of course, once again,
I’m gonna bring this chart back up,
doing some very interesting things that we
could really dissect because we’re
following the rules of technical analysis.
We rejected this channel resistance
that has been longs standing here,
especially for those that have been
watching the Cypress Channel
before Ethereum even crossed $700.
We’ve been watching this area here.
And then we also rejected 3959,
another lower high potentially here.
This looks like a top here.
It just does.
I have to be honest,
are we gonna get traders fold all
the way down to the 1980 range?
Is Ethereum possibly not gonna come down
to form new lows to where we previously
saw Ethereum all the way down to 1760.
Just spy of the 1440 presalt on high.
Maybe we see higher low form
in this next move down.
I’m just bringing up the macro.
Once again, I’m not being a bear.
I’m not being a Bull.
We’re gonna look at he micro timeframes.
There’s a possibility we could move up.
But I’m just saying
with Ethereum below 34.
54, you have to be careful.
The range is all the way down to 1980.
And that’s a concern because that’s a very
large range to the downsides
to more volatile asset.
And a lot of the hints of how
this next move is gonna play out.
And one of the thesis ETH we’ve stuck
to on this channel, I’d say over the last
month and a half to two months is
that Bitcoin dominance is potentially
in the early stages of a reversal.
And the reason I’ve been saying that is we
saw tremendous altcoin rally
with this so far lower high.
That Bitcoin is form.
Notice how it correlates
here with this lower high.
And that’s why we told you guys
that altcoin season wasn’t over here
in May because I believe that there was
still some room to go because we
looked at the others dominance chart.
And we saw that we were testing support
for the first time a macro support
which was previous resistance.
And assuming garden variety market
behavior, you bounce at a next test
of a support for the first time.
That’s what we’ve seen here.
We’re not looking at the others dominance
chart anymore, with Ethereum being as
institutionally graded as Bitcoin.
So we’re gonna isolate Ethereum dominance
now and this is our new Others dominance
chart, which is the top 100 coins minus
Bitcoin Ethereum in the Tether
and other stable coins.
And so realize this.
We also have a lower high here for me
and you can kind of see the opposite
happening with Bitcoin dominance.
We have this
higher low forming and it’s a chart here
the Bitcoin dominance chart,
which is extremely correlated, the DXY,
the strength of the dollar,
and a lot of that has to do is I’ve talked
about before with the sentiment of where
people and institutions want to head
to their money, they don’t want to be
in more risk on assets like Altcoins
that have yet to see true
user adoption so forth.
They want to go back into coins that they
know are strong, fundamentally Bitcoin and
Ethereum, potentially this time around.
And so our thesis, which we’ll talk about
today has been that if we see a move
to the outside, this is the first time two
days ago that we’ve been able to test our
thesis on the snipers channel that I if we
see this move to the downside,
how is the other markets on ETH, other
revolving parts going to react to that?
And so far thesis against many analysts
that I personally watch that I’ve been
seeing Altcoin season
is up for a new rally.
I’ve been saying that if we see this move
to the downside, there’s a potential
that we see this reverse down.
And what I’ve also added to this thesis
amongst EIP 1559 in Ethereum two0
and futures launching is
that for the first time ever,
a meme could potentially act as a
good hedge any beer market.
And let’s just not take that too harshly.
We could assume that if Bitcoin does not
form any further all time highs,
we’ve been in a bear market,
so the end is closer than the start.
If this is truly a lower high,
so don’t actually take that too harshly.
You know, we’ve seen a tremendous rally.
I don’t expect Bitcoin to test any
further, you know, levels below
the previous sell time high of 20,000.
So no matter what happens
and that’s the true so far.
But is Ethereum ready to see strength
against Bitcoin hour later,
that’s going to have to be determined
who is a them in Bitcoin sharp because so
far everyone is going crazy about this
chart, but we’ve done nothing significant
other than double top
at previous resistance.
And so until we can see something
different, I have to be on pirate, say,
garden variety market behavior
says until we conform, you high.
This is just a push up for a lower high.
Maybe we even can form a
higher high getting above 860.
Satoshis where I would say, okay,
now Ethereum is ready to to perform
against Bitcoin, potentially for maybe
several years and outperform.
But until this happens,
I don’t think Ethereum is ready.
It needs to get above 86,000 associates.
We want to assume that we
start to fall back to 65,000.
Satoshis, this is going to start
confirming our opinion
that Bitcoin dominance.
This would be the final confirmation is
going to move above the 20 week
moving average again at 45% dominant.
So first goes theory in Bitcoin.
If it sees downside,
we want to monitor Bitcoin dominance.
Now let’s say we isolate
a theme and we see it.
The theme do sell,
but other alt coins don’t do well,
that’s why we’re going
to start watching this chart.
There’s also a possibility Ethereum moves
in outperforming, Bitcoin,
Bitcoin outperforms the other altcoins.
And now if they’re in,
Bitcoin are kind of they’re two Alpha
players versus just having Bitcoin being
an Alpha player, they see
liquidity flowing from all coins.
And then Bitcoin Dominus could come
back to the Tondreau moving average.
We love to stay as you could see here
in this more macro timer on a weekly chart
while Ethereum Dominant starts to see its
time in the market where it didn’t
get that time in the 2017 2018 rally.
But this time around, you could see,
you know, some upside.
This Ethereum dominance chart is different
than the others dominance chart.
We have to keep that in mind.
Look how different they are.
This looks like it’s topping out at 36%
while the Ethereum dominance chart
is in an ascending triangle.
And so that’s why we
started to isolate these.
So they’ve been very correlated
for a very long time.
But this is really the first
time we’re seeing sort of.
This is correlation with a very important
level or could potentially be in the midst
of a breakout or a breakdown here.
So a lot to talk about today.
And then we’ll look at traditional
markets at the end.
This might be a long video.
It’s already 14 minutes here through, but
it’s a very critical time in the market.
So let’s talk about the micro timeframes
that we were discussing earlier
to determine and you guys
know the importance of 460.
Now that I’ve explained it to you, what
is happening on the micro timeframes?
We’re so far we’re forming a lot of
lower high, and that’s not a good thing.
That means there’s
pressure to the downside.
So far, we could sit here and say, oh,
we’ve got an inverse head
and shoulder pattern forming here.
But the fact of the matter is we’re
in a very critical transitionary phase
where Bitcoin has crossed below the 250
day moving average and has seen an immense
amount of sell pressure coming.
And we have not been able to form
higher highs now,
typically when you make a move
and you flag pattern, that means there’s
another continuation move coming.
Are we going to be seeing this push
Bitcoin down below
the tunity moving average?
Remember, 46,000 is a reason
the price is there right now.
One of my mentors in trading said,
where the prices right
now actually does matter.
That’s the current price of the asset,
because in reality,
as I think Charles Darwin,
or someone says ETH, future and past don’t
exist, they are merely just illusions.
The present is all you have.
That’s why it’s called the present.
It’s a gift.
And when you arrive to the future,
you will realize that it is
just another present moment.
And so the present is what matters.
We’re sitting at the 200
day moving average.
If we start to see weakness now below,
we’ve already got one bearish
hourly candle below 46 thouro.
We need to put on our seat belt because
at that point 41,950,
there’s not much more volume here.
We’ve already cleared out
the volume with this Wick.
This could turn into a push down
to the $38,000 level, and that would
be my concern if we stay below 460.
And then from there we could see
some short term price action.
To the upside.
I talked about this yesterday
institutional type of volume
doesn’t just come in all at once.
They like to take their turns because if
they just came in at once,
we just see the price come down like this,
and so they will
slowly exit their positions or whatever it
might be to accomplish
whatever gold they might have.
And so we could see potential.
Let’s say I don’t know if we come
to 49,700, if we cross below 46,000,
but we could come to monthly open back
to the $47,000 level and then we have
to determine, okay,
are we gonna see strength here or we’re
really gonna see that push down to the new
further lost for this year where we could
potentially find that confluent level
on that macro support level on the 24,000
to $26,000 level that all will
have to depend on 46,000.
That’s the importance
of where we’re at right now.
I think that if we cross below 46,000,
it’s not the time to say
to ourselves, okay, that’s it.
Let’s buy the dip.
It’s time to be a little bit patient
and realize that sitting on the sidelines
is fine and that cash
is a position at times.
And so we have to realize
that for the upside here at this point,
the monthly open has a lot of confluent
regions and it is the closest
area of roadblock for Bitcoin to.
The upside is only at 10,000.
If we can start getting candles at 47,000.
This would be extremely positive
for Bitcoin because that as soon as we
come back to 49,700, at least to see,
could we gold 49,700 or will it reject?
When you reach a destination, you reach
it and you turn back around right.
But at times you do reach a destination.
You have a cup of coffee like we
did initially here with 49,700.
And that’s why we were monitoring
the micro time frame
store the last few weeks.
And then I said,
I don’t see strength here.
And of course we saw the weekend
manipulation of the upside and push down.
Having a cup of coffee gives you some
indications of what’s happening.
That’s when you have to start
being a little bit more micro
time frame and look
at the smaller time frame.
So we get about 47,000.
Then we can start talking about some
upside to 49,700, and then we have
to see Bitcoin reaction to 49,700.
But if we cross strongly with decision
and with intention below 46,000,
I would be extremely careful and we could
potentially even look at 380 as a target.
So that’s just the truth of what
I’m seeing on the charts.
And that would also make us test the 100
day moving average ETH slightly below.
And then I think we could find some buyers
there, at least in the same
amount of sellers.
And then with Ethereum.
My concern here with Ethereum is that
the range is a lot larger in downside.
And so if we stay below 34 54, we could
assume 1980s and come back at some point.
And so that’s hard there.
And so the micro timeframes it looks like
what a theme is waiting for is to see can
Bitcoin reclaim the monthly open because
the monthly open for theme is also sitting
at 34 54, which is not a coincidence.
You have to kind of look at them
in the same way where we know
Ethereum will be affected by Bitcoin.
And so it doesn’t have that much
independence just yet in this market.
And so if Bitcoin can get about 470,
we can assume Ethereum can push back up
to 36 51st and then 39 59 as
the next level of resistance.
But we now have two road blocks to get
ahead of to see any further highs.
And this candle pattern and structure does
not look good over what
happened in the weekend.
And so once again I said this yesterday,
it’s a very tough short for Bitcoin.
It was a lot easier to short Ethereum.
We took those three shorts 39 59.
Bitcoin was extremely hard shortans,
and at this point right now we have
to wait for confirmation of whether this
is going to start coming to the downside
to then start shorting these
other levels for the day traders.
Of course, for the string traders,
cash is a position if we
start to see this breakdown.
So I think that if 470 can’t hold and we
start to see price actually O 460 1st,
we come down here, we’ve already come down
to test this 50 day moving average around
three0, you knock
on the door a second time.
The likelihood of us coming down
further becomes highly likely.
And then we do have
that previous monthly open.
Remember that 2500 ish that could act as a
new level support that would be created.
But at this point, the range of Ethereum
because we’ve seen so much volatility
in this range 1980 to 34 54,
it’s nothing in between.
And so that’s just the reason we move
through these ranges so swiftly.
It’s a butter knife.
And with the Tami Bitcoin chart,
this is what’s going to give us a little
bit more hints as to what’s happening
and what we have to monitor
here is this weekly open.
And if we stay below this weekly open,
which is sitting right at the $76,300 or
76,300 Satoshi level,
then we could assume that we’re going
to see some weakness here to potentially
come back to test six 5000 socials.
We get above the 76,000 Satoshi area
where we have this weekly open.
That would be interesting
for the the Bitcoin the case.
Now we can start seeing how this Bitcoin
dominance is going to start playing its
part with this market in this next move.
And so so I wouldn’t say we have full
confirmation that Altcoin season is
going to see a slow down just yet.
I think we really need to wait for Bitcoin
to make that decision from 47,$000 to $46,
because if it moves up from 47,000,
we could be in for a higher high.
So that’s the important
thing to keep in mind there.
And so that means we might be a little
bit premature with that opinion.
Bitcoin Dome may actually coming down,
see some further lows,
but we have to realize it’s so correlated
to this DXY chart, you know,
and the DXY is pushing up.
It has double bottomed and it
looks like it wants to push up.
And if the correlation is true, then it
assumes Bitcoin dominance pushes up.
And the problem with that is I would only
see Bitcoin dominant is pushing up
with price of the markets
and cryptocurrency or coming down because
there has to be a reason for that.
Gold, by the way,
hasn’t done anything significant
testing the previous weekly open.
We can still assume this bullish breaking
the structural resistance already.
And so this could be the final
opportunity for people get into gold.
We want to watch that gold
starts to come down.
It shorts more confidence and traditional
assets and potentially more
risk on assets like Altcoins.
A Bitcoin, of course.
And if we see gold move up,
it shows more fear than people want to
move their money into more stable assets.
with the US oil also sort of looking like
a top here, we just have to be a little
bit careful here when it comes to watching
commodities to see
the reaction of other markets.
Japan is moving up.
It’s breaking out of this flag here,
which is very interesting to see.
Traditional markets are doing
well outside an Asia looks like.
And then we come into the CSI 300 it looks
like it’s in the premature phases of move.
Similar Spy 500 still sitting at highs.
And I’d see what we’re seeing
in traditional markets now is
not a reaction to the DXY just yet,
and I think that’s buying us a lot
of time in the crypto market.
If we start to see the Spy 500 is
the largest traditional market react
to the DXY,
this would be another confirmation
that Bitcoin is going
to start to react to the DXY.
We see continued strength of SMB 5100.
That’s exactly what we want for Bitcoin
assuming a healthy environment
outside of Bitcoin.
So 23 minutes on this video.
Thank you all for tuning in today.
I hope you enjoyed our indepth analysis
and it’s gold to be very interesting
to see how Bitcoin reacts
to this 46,040 $7,000 range.
And with that, thank you all
for tuning in today until next time.