Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
under the Bitcoin price this Sunday as we
are still inside of the $44,800
and $46,000 range.
And the significance of both of these
levels is the fact that at 46,000,
we have the 200 day moving average.
Which Bitcoin right now has failed to see
any four hour candles
fully above this level.
And that is signifying that it truly is
the most important resistance
right now for Bitcoin.
And then, of course, 44,800,
we didn’t see any candles come
below that support as well.
Which is why I always say our snipers
support and resistance levels on our
channel are always extremely important,
and they’re always in red.
And so knowing that we’re still inside
of this tight range here and it’s Sunday,
which means futures markets are gonna open
later today, we’re gonna see the new
weekly candles for the
We could expect some volatility
coming here into Monday and Tuesday.
And so I want to really emphasize the key
scenarios that we could expect here
with Bitcoin from the upside and downside,
knowing that it’s really a split decision
right now between the Bears and the Bulls.
And so knowing that 460 right now is
the most important resistance,
if we can start seeing hourly and four
hour candles get above this level,
that’s gonna be the first hint
that there’s a potential we’re gonna
come and test this monthly open.
And I think this is gonna be the decision
point for Bitcoin in order to assume
whether or not this is a continuation
that’s going to take us to further lows,
or if this is just a push to the downside
temporarily before Bitcoin
can assume further highs.
And so the channel that we’re really
playing in right now takes us
to this monthly open at 470.
So if we see candles come of a 460,
that’s certainly gonna be
garden variety market behavior.
But up until the point that we get
above this monthly open where 470 sits,
and this is pretty much also showing
confidence with this structural resistance
level that we can kind
of just draw out here.
And we know that when we see a move
to a specific direction,
we can just kind of consider this
a channel from the $49,700 level.
When we crashed down to this $44,800
level, we did see a Wick down towards
the $41,950 level, which I’ll talk about
soon, because this is significant.
As you guys know,
I’ve been saying that because price action
already came below 41,800,
we pretty much cleared the order books
here, which is gonna matter when
it comes to the downside scenario.
But now that we’re seeing this flag
pattern, we can assume that Bitcoin
is having a cup of coffee.
And traditionally, what would happen is if
you have enough flag after a specific
move, you will see the move
and a continuation of the same direction.
And that’s where we see
the highest probability.
But of course, it’s Bitcoin and so if we
can see any sort of price action above
this extremely important resistance
of the monthly over to 470,
that would be the only way that I would
assume that Bitcoin can come back towards
49, 700, which at that point we can start
talking about what an upside
scenario would look like.
Now for the downside scenario, this is
where this Wick really comes into play.
The Wick that we saw that came down
really, the candle low here was 42,800.
So it was certainly shy of the $41,950
but percentage wise with Bitcoin
in the 40,000, I mean,
that was really only a 2%
range that we fail to get towards ETH
the $41,950 level where we know
there’s going to be some volume.
And so because we’ve pretty much cleared
the path here for the most
part in this range.
If we start to see candles really get
below 44,800, there’s a reason we have
yet to see candles below this level.
This volume that’s already been cleared
out, in my opinion,
could certainly put a more intense
downside scenario on the table
and the intensity to the downside could
certainly be a lot more amplified than
the upside intensity at this point
with where Bitcoin is currently sitting.
And so I really want to drill
that into this video because
that tells me that if we see this $41,800
level break 41,950 does not seem to be
the destination that I would assume
Bitcoin is going to head towards,
I would immediately assume 38,000.
But because it’s so close to this previous
structural resistance that really held
Bitcoin down since the drop in May,
I could expect this to act as a garden
variety support level,
and so I would assume a little bit more
price action down to 36,500
is my area of interest.
I’ve been saying before we can start
assuming any further levels of upside
if this $44,800 level break.
So you know, to just kind
of clarify the two scenarios here.
I know we kind of went in depth just now.
If Bitcoin breaks 44,800 and then
we could expect 36, 500.
I know it’s a bold statement,
but that’s what this chart is showing us.
If Bitcoin can get above the monthly open
at 47,000, then we’re potentially gonna
come to 49,700 and test that level.
But I don’t expect anything more
intense than that for the upside.
And so when we’re looking at risk
to reward here from the current price
to where we could potentially
go to the upside is about 8%.
But when we look at this to the downside,
we’re looking at about ten risk
to the downside right now with where
Bitcoin is Atso, I think that that gives
you guys a good understanding of what
we’re going to be watching as features
markets open, and then what we’re also
going to be monitoring is the strength of
altcoins with Ethereum leading the pack.
You can see this does not look gold
here with this type of price action.
This certainly looks like a top, almost
like this head and shoulder is forming.
And I told you guys, 34,
54 is the major resistance that Ethereum
now has to get above.
If we want to assume any further upside
and we’re not going sell
get the confirmation.
I think until Bitcoin can
decide to move above 47,000.
But if we stay below 47,000 where Bitcoin
has its monthly open
and it’s not a coincidence.
Ethereum is monthly open is also
sitting at this important resistance.
Bitcoin comes down to 44,800
and starts to see weakness.
Ethereum potential downside is even more
amplified here with about
potential downside to the next target at.
I think that we want to keep that in mind
in the same way that the order
books were cleared.
Interestingly enough for Bitcoin
down to the 44,000 $841,950 range.
The Ethereum order book cleared out
the range that we were playing in when we
first crossed back above 3000
and we held a major support.
We can’t assume any volume here anymore
because it’s already cleared out with this
Wick and 44,800 breaks for Bitcoin.
There’s no volume here
above 3000 for Ethereum.
That could certainly bring
that more intense down.
So that’s near on the table.
And that’s why I more likely
expect a theorem to not
perform as well as Bitcoin.
If we see downside in Bitcoin price,
and then that ties in with our dominance
opinion that we’ve had in this channel
where a theorem to Bitcoin is yet to form
further highs from where we
it’s peaked out here in May.
And so if we come down to 650 Satoshis,
that’s the confirmation that the altcoin
season is truly running out of gas
for the short term at least.
And that could be potentially because
Bitcoin dominance wants to start to rise
up and come back towards homeostasis where
it loves to sit here at this 200 week
moving average, currently sitting around
57% dominance with our current dominance
below the 20 week moving average at 40%.
But we’ve yet to break the May lows,
and so that’s a significant
thing to keep in mind.
And if we were to assume that the Bitcoin
dominance chart is similar to the DXY as
it really had a lot of correlations
in 2018, as you guys know,
then we could expect the double bottom
here for Bitcoin dominance,
and that would coincide with what
happened to the DXY so far.
We’re at double bottom before now being
above the 20 week moving average.
And like I said, 218, it showed the DXY
was very correlated a Bitcoin dominant.
So this kind of gives us a little bit
of an early hint as to where Bitcoin down
it is headed, which is why I’ve had
the opinion that we are in the early
stages of a reversal here.
And so that’s going to be significant
because that’s going to affect this others
which factors in old altcoins outside
of Ethereum, Bitcoin and stable
coins might factor and die.
I don’t know, might only remove the USDT
stable coin supply, but it still gives you
a better picture of the altcoin market,
since it doesn’t factor Ethereum
in and you can see it’s very different
chart than Ethereum dominance,
which I’ll show you in a set with this
sort of double top and makes sense.
Bitcoin dominants, double
bottom altcoins, double top.
And so the question is,
is this the lower high, and we’re
going to see that maybe a higher high.
I don’t expect
extreme amount of strength on this chart
right now with where
Bitcoin dominance is at.
So when anybody says altcoin season is
still in its early phases, that means
they’re basically saying this chart.
They’re expecting to just
continue to rally.
And I don’t know the probability of that.
Based on what I’m seeing,
just doesn’t look clear when it comes
to the correlations,
as we’re a four dimensional channel,
not a three dimensional CL channel.
And then, as I wanted to show you guys
here, Ethereum dominant does look very
different than the others dominance.
And that’s why we’re starting to isolate
this with sort of this
ascending triangle formation.
So we’ll monitor this,
but it’s this breaks down then
that means that nothing special.
Maybe it just looked a little bit
different from the others dominance chart.
We could sell, maybe assume
this was a double top.
You can see we didn’t get
to form any highs here.
That’s why the dominant is actually
showing weakness, not strength.
And that’s not a surprise for those.
I’ve been tuned to the ciphers channel.
We’ve been talking about that,
even despite many analysts saying
otherwise and then sell cover traditional
markets tomorrow, as we always do.
And I’ll be resetting these previous
weekly opens on our charts,
as I always do every Sunday.
And with that, thank you
guys for tuning in today.
Have an amazing and blessed Sunday.
Happy fun day.
And with that, thank you all for tuning
to the Cypress Channel today.
I hope you enjoy today’s
analysis until next time.