You have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Thursday as we
are seeing sideways price action,
which is no surprise.
The path of least resistance is always
gonna be sideways sell
a little bit higher.
However, we are above the weekly open here
at $43,100, which is a really good thing
to buy us some more time to see some
action between the range of 44,841, 950.
And today we want to talk about what’s
happening to the DXY as we have just
pushed above a major resistance level.
Notice how we broke 93 82.
This is a pretty big deal.
It’s the first time we’ve broke this
resistance in over a year and we know
in the dollar value strengthens
assets tend to come down.
And so this is a big puzzle piece heading
into Friday where we know
the cryptocurrency market is going
to become more manipulated due
to CME features being closed.
And then we’re gonna look at what’s
happening here to Ethereum back above
$3,000, but yet above the weekly open.
The reason for this is because we are
still seeing weakness against Bitcoin
and that’s why Bitcoin has been able
to get above it weekly open despite
Ethereum not being able to.
But we do want to talk about what’s
happening here on the smaller timeframes
since we are now above the weekly open,
which is no surprise.
Once again, light volume the path of least
to a little bit higher.
What I’m finding interesting here is we
have failed to form any new highs
from this consolidation so far,
currently rejecting the 100 period
moving average on the three hour chart.
We really want to see Bitcoin get to 44,
800 to assume that the Bulls have seen
some sort of control over price,
because if we can’t get to 44,800,
that assumes that we fail to break
the consolidation highs, and that could
be a sign of bearish pressure.
But so far in the three hour we have
a bullish continuation candle
that took us above the weekly open.
So I think that’s a very positive thing.
If we can get to 44,800 now we can start
talking about the potential of testing 470
were rehab the monthly open,
and this would be a very significant break
of resistance that could potentially
change the storyline for Bitcoin to
now potentially even get to 49,700.
But until that happens,
we really want to monitor the smaller
timeframes to see if we can
get that test of 44,800.
And of course we know 41,950
is the major support.
The more we’ve come down below this level,
the more the order books get cleared
and the weaker the price action becomes
when we come back down to this level.
And so the more times that we come below,
the likelihood of us breaking this level
to the $36,500 level becomes likely.
But we also have that $38,000 level as our
first downside target,
and we are still playing in the range
of 44, 800 to 38,000 because of the fact
that even today’s daily candles
still has a body below 41, 950.
I talked about the path
of least resistance.
It’s exactly what we’re
seeing here for Bitcoin.
It’s also allowing some altcoins to see
some breathing room,
which is a good thing,
but the theory Bitcoin chart clearly
showing us the that it’s not in favor
right now being the fact that we are still
below this weekly open at 710 Satoshis.
If we can get above this weekly open,
we can potentially assume
some strength for all coins.
But for now we have to assume
that the Ethereum to Bitcoin chart is
trying to head back towards 650 Satoshis
and that’s gonna be the most important
support that we’re gonna have
to monitor to see if we can hold.
Because if this breaks once again,
that could be a huge concern
for the altcoin market being the fact
that Ethereum is a leading
indicator for all coins.
With the total cryptocurrency market cap
chart forming this lower high so far we’ve
assumed that we got this top here
around that $2.6 trillion level.
We saw this lower high form.
This here was potentially the end or
at least short term end of altcoin season
being the fact that we finally got
that move to the upside after initially
forming a high and now
the potential of this downside move that’s
already been progressing that took
the total cryptocurrency market
capture from 2 trillion.
Now back down to one 9 trillion is
potentially going to bleed out all coins
to allow Bitcoin dominance to reverse.
I think this is the storyline that we need
to stick with at this point because
remember, the DXY is extremely
correlated to Bitcoin dominance.
When I say Bitcoin dominance,
that doesn’t mean Bitcoin price.
When I say Bitcoin dominance is going
to increase, that doesn’t mean Bitcoin
price is going to increase the DXY being
extremely correlated already double
bottomed and much and above the 20 moving
average already making its move
to continue towards this 102 hundred
moving average tells me that at some point
or another Bitcoin dominance is gonna be
getting itself above this 20 week moving
average at 46% dominance. That’s gonna be
an extremely interesting thing to monitor
for Bitcoin because assuming we get about
46% dominance, we have to ask ourselves,
does that mean the total crypto currency
marketing cap chart is going to see
further highs, or are we going to be
seeing a breakdown in the total market cap
chart with all coins bleeding out
into Bitcoin causing Bitcoin
dominance to move higher?
And that’s what I’m really going to be
monitoring coming into this weekend.
I think that at some point another we’re
gonna get an answer here
with Bitcoin dominant.
So that’s probably the most important
revolving part to watch right now.
And then, of course,
with the DXY moving like the way it is,
the Spy 500 notice here still below the 50
day moving average after rejecting it,
sitting at the 100 day moving average.
This is the first time we’ve tested
the 100 day moving average in 2021,
and this is actually the first time
in a while that we’ve actually tested
the 100 day and then rejected the 50
day and now back at the 100 day.
Usually we once again test the 100
day and we continue to the upside.
But we’ve yet to see that right now
showing some weakness in traditional
markets, telling me that there’s still
some fear in institutional capital
and that could certainly affect
the cryptocurrency market.
Once again, international markets
commodity is not moving much.
This is certainly going to be a quick
update, being the fact that we’re
still moving sideways.
But I do want to address the fact
that because we are now above the weekly
open, we are now buying
ourselves some time.
We’ve yet to break new highs from the
consolidation that we currently have.
And until we can get to 44,800 and test
this major resistance,
we have to assume that we’re gonna stay
between the range of 41,950 and 44,800.
And with that, I know this was a quick
update, but once again,
we’re seeing the sideways press
action that we were expecting.
And until we start to see some
decisiveness at 44, 841 950,
we just have to assume this
channel is gonna maintain itself.
And that’s not a bad thing,
because the longer we can stay at these
higher prices, the better for the downside
scenario, because then it could be
a little bit less intense, of course.
So that’s about it for today.
Thank you all for tuning
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