Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Wednesday as we
saw a garden variety retest of the 20 week
moving average yesterday at 40,700,
allowing us to get back above 41,950
despite seeing a full four hour
candle close below this level.
And now we are trying to get back above
43,000 where we have the weekly open.
This is the major resistance within
the range of 44,841,
950 that we wanted get above
to assume some upside for Bitcoin.
And of course, if we can get about 43,000
now we have 44,800 as the major
resistance for Bitcoin.
But until that happens,
remember when there’s light volume,
the path of least resistance is always
going to be sideways
to a little bit higher.
And so since we’ve yet to see some real
volume come in, we’re seeing some sideways
and that is allowing Altcoins to also
agree if we look at Ethereum.
But today I want to talk more about the e
revolving parts outside
of the cryptocurrency market that affect
the cryptocurrency market like the S and P
500, seeing a massive drop and rejection
of the 50 day moving average back
at the 100 day moving average.
This is actually the first time that we’ve
came down to test the 100 day moving
average going back above the 50 day moving
average and now coming straight back
down to the 100 day moving average.
Notice how every single time in the past
that we’ve come down to this 100 day
moving average and come back above the 50
day we’ve stayed above the 50 day we’ve
come and we’ve tested the 100 day
moving average multiple times.
But every single time we get back
above and we continue to move up.
And now we’re seeing the storyline change
with a rejection of the 50
day moving average.
The first three test of the 100 day moving
average for this year, and now we’re back
at the 100 day moving average at 43.
70 ish for the Emini futures contract.
And we know the Spy 500 is
extremely cool related to Bitcoin.
Why is this happening?
Well, guess what.
notice how it’s testing the most important
resistance level and the strength
of the dollar is a highly correlated asset
to Bitcoin dominance.
And it also, of course, is an indicator
of asset prices being sort of inflated.
If the dollar is going up,
we’re gonna start to see the S Amp P 500
and the cryptocurrency market come down.
So the fact that the DXY is pushing up
right now is the reason we’re seeing
weakness in traditional
markets and in Bitcoin.
And so we really want
to start monitoring this.
And then we’re gonna also look at how
altcoins are reacting as well as
because look at Japan also reacting
to the DXY pushing down 2% today.
And of course,
Bitcoin has been maintaining itself
within 44,840 1950 for some time now.
But we’ve yet to really see decisive
volume on the six hour chart, which we
know is an institutional time frame.
The sellers are clearly in control.
There’s a lot happening
in the markets today.
I want to talk about exactly what I’m
expecting here for Bitcoin now,
first and foremost,
because we are above 41, 950,
we want to go into the smaller timeframes
to look at the market schematics
and notice how we came to form these lows
on the 24 September,
where we came down to 40,675,
and then we came back down
to form another low at 4750.
But this time our low was 41,760.
So we’re continually forming some higher
lows for Bitcoin,
which is a positive thing.
But the fact that we’ve come below 41,950
so many times now,
especially when we first came down
and with below this level sell me
that we’ve cleared the order books
and the volume in this range.
And so at any point in time,
if we start to see weakness at 41,950,
the chance of Bitcoin slicing down below
400 becomes higher and higher, the more we
come down and test levels below 41,950.
So at this point we can assume
that there are two extremely
important levels to watch right now.
And the first one is gonna
be 41, 950, of course.
But now the second one is gonna be 43,100
ish where the weekly open sits,
because if we can get above that now,
we can buy ourselves some more time to see
some higher prices,
maybe some more side of ETH price action,
and then to potentially come and retest 44
800 where depending on how that goes,
we can talk about potentially
assuming some more upside targets.
But remember, I can’t say that there’s
gonna be a shortterm bottom just yet based
on the volume on the six hour chart,
because until we see volume equates,
the amount of sell pressure that came in
on the 6 September when we saw the 19%
dropped from 540 down to the $43,000 range
for Bitcoin, we are not gonna be able
to assume there’s a button because there
just isn’t as many buyers
in the market as there are sellers.
So that’s really what I’m monitoring
to assume the shortterm bottom.
But if we go on the daily chart,
notice how we are still inside
of the range of 44,830,
8000 because the daily candle is sitting
still at that $41,950 level
and has a body below.
And so the reason we came back above 41,
950, even though we saw a four hour candle
close yesterday below that level is
because we saw a garden variety retest
of the 20 week moving average where we
could expect to see some upside pressure,
since there wasn’t enough sell
pressure to bring this down further.
We’re a very sensitive point for Bitcoin.
Now, here’s the thing that also matters
on the weekly chart, which the macro,
of course, is the most
important thing, right?
Traders can control the short term price
action, but they can’t control the macro
price action if we get below this
20 week moving average at 40,500.
That’s a big deal,
because now we’ve confirmed that we are
not seeing a reversal of this bear market.
Now take that lightly,
because if we assume that we’re still
in a bear market since we topped out
at 64,004 Bitcoin, that means that we’re
closer to the end and the star right.
If we can assume that maybe the rally
that we saw to 64,000 was the first phase
of this Bull market,
then now we can say that.
The bear market is already in progress.
We’re probably closer to the end than
but there’s still a lot of potential
downside that could potentially come
on the table for Bitcoin,
and maybe not enough downside to justify
Bitcoin coming down below its previous all
time high of 200,
because Bitcoin has never done
that once it’s broke an all time high.
So that’s why I’ve been saying
that in a more macro view.
And there’s a lot of lines
on my chart right now.
But in the macro view,
I believe the institutions are eye on this
level where we have this
100 week moving average.
And we also have
confluence with a major market structural
support that dates back to the crash
for March 2020 that held us at ten $0.
And we’ve yet to come
test the support level.
Remember, institutions always want to
accumulate at the best possible prices.
And so what they’ll do is they’ll drive
price down like they did
from 64,000 down to 30,000.
And then they drive price back up
to either form a lower high or a higher
high, because when they drive price up
for that second time, it puts
more enthusiasm in the retail traders say,
oh, we’re back in the Bull market.
We’re gonna break new all time.
Now and then they start to pull the rug
on everyone and drop the price.
And because everyone is so enthusiastic,
people start buying these
dips on the way down.
And that gives ETH institutions
the opportunity to,
at one point or another,
throw a ton of sell pressure
into the order books and get the price
they want to get their accumulation.
And so that’s why I’m
very cautious right now.
We’re Bitcoin sitting at 41, 950.
We really want to always think like
an institution is we always do
here in the Cypress Channel.
That’s a little bit of a market macro
recap that is pretty significant at this
point being the fact that Bitcoin
is below its weekly open.
And of course, if we can get about 43,
100, we can start talking
about some upside targets.
And when it comes to the revolving parts,
we’re gonna cover traditional markets and
commodities and international markets.
But I quickly want to just
talk about Ethereum here.
We’re seeing Ethereum also show some
sideways price action that is nothing
to be surprised about sitting at 2900
right now still below the weekly open.
We could still assume that we’re seeing
weakness with the term Bitcoin chart being
the fact that we are really close
to 65,000 Satoshis,
which is a major support level.
But what I really want to talk about today
outside of, let’s say,
Bitcoin dominance and the altcoin
dominance, which we know Bitcoin dominance
is possibly in its early phases
of reversal, while the altcoins outside
of Bitcoin are possibly in the early
phases of a downward reversal.
And so knowing that,
why is this happening?
Well, the DXY is the big
corporate here, right?
The reason we’re seeing this downside
price action right now is because of
what’s happening to the DXY pushing up.
And so if we continue to push up 93 82,
we’re already above this major resistance.
This is gonna potentially push this
DXY even further up in this move.
Right here is what would be extremely
concerning for the S Amp P 500
and the cryptocurrency market,
because that move to the upside
when that happened in 2017 and 18.
What did that do to the
Well, it bled out
the overall total market.
It also bled out altcoins
back into Bitcoin.
So Bitcoine was the asset that solved
the least amount of downside.
Walt Altcoins bled out and the Bitcoin
dominance chart followed
the DXY and continued up.
So the DXY is pushing up right now.
Why wouldn’t we assume that Bitcoin
dominance is also double bottomed
and ready to get above its 20 week
moving average, which is yet to do so.
And that tells me that because we have yet
to get above this 20 week moving average
and mimic what is happening with the DXY
that we’ve yet to see the real
downside move for Bitcoin.
And so that’s what I’m
monitoring right now.
The DXY is pushing up.
It’s causing the SMP 500 to push down.
And that’s a big deal,
because Spy 500 is extremely correlated
to the cryptocurrency market is
just that’s how capital flows.
If there’s fear in traditional markets,
there’s also going to be fear
in the cryptocurrency market.
So we want to watch Spy 500 testing this
20 week moving average coming back
down this 100 day moving average.
And we’re already seeing the effects
of the DXY take part in international
markets, with Japan down 2% say,
China is coming down right now and even
the Euro 100 followed Spy 500 coming down.
It’s actually below the 20 week moving
average now for the first time this year.
So a lot happening right now.
I remember the path of least resistance is
always going to be sideways
to a little bit higher.
So when we see the these
pumps to the upside that we can call
the minor pumps, we have to always take
them with a grain of salt unless we break
major levels like the weekly open,
or if we can see some volume that can
justify a possible shortterm bottom.
All for tuning in to the
snipers channel today.
I hope you enjoyed today’s quick analysis.
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