BITCOIN SHORT POSITION UPDATE AFTER REJECTION (btc analysis)

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Timestamps!
00:00 bitcoin analysis
07:45 altcoin predictions
11:11 btc short

Snipers, you have to see what’s happening

to the Bitcoin price this Saturday as
we’ve yet to break towards forty nine

thousand seven hundred U.S. dollars,
seeing a slight rejection today with our

daily Candelo at forty five thousand nine
hundred seventy one with a high of forty

eight thousand one hundred and forty four,
because it’s the weekend and this is when

the Cryptocurrency market
is the most manipulated.

I want to address what’s happening

on the 4-hour chart now that we’re
seeing this slight pullback.

It is Bitcoin going to start heading
towards this weekly open here at forty

four thousand seven hundred to potentially
test it for a second time,

putting us below the major support
of forty four thousand eight hundred.

Or are we going to just continue to see

this rally to forty nine thousand seven
hundred and then potentially see a push

down to this forty four thousand
eight hundred dollars level?

I want to talk about this today,
but I don’t expect Bitcoin to cross above

forty nine thousand seven hundred just
yet before first testing this level.

I want to make that clear
and understand this as well.

If Bitcoin does come to test forty four
thousand eight hundred or this weekly open

here just below it
and this level potentially breaks,

I want to talk about why I’m expecting
the thirty four thousand seven hundred

and eighty dollar level
to get tested at that point.

And of course, if we monitor what’s

happening to Altcoins during this sideways
price action, the thesis that we’ve had

over the last month is that Ethereum is
just going to kind of float in this higher

range while we see other Altcoins like
Cardano, for example, we’ll see breakouts.

And that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing.

Ethereum also has yet to break from this

channel resistance and has yet to test 34
54, which is kind of similar to Bitcoin

forty nine thousand seven
hundred dollars level.

Of course, if Bitcoin moves to forty nine

thousand seven hundred, I think Ethereum
will test thirty four fifty four.

But there’s still also a potential
Ethereum could test thirty four,

fifty four and Bitcoin not get above
forty nine thousand seven hundred.

And I think that becomes highly likely

with Bitcoin above forty
four thousand eight hundred.

If this Ethereum to Bitcoin chart stays

above the sixty five thousand satoshi
level, of course that means it’s bullish.

We could see the gas tank here get used
with Bitcoin potentially seeing Siris

price action Ethereum
seeing continued strength.

These are all scenarios on the table,
but these are scenarios that would occur

if Bitcoin maintained forty
four thousand eight hundred.

So we’re going to address the total
Cryptocurrency market caps.

Are others dominant and Bitcoin dominance
as well as we’re starting to get hints as

to where the direction
of the trend is going.

But let’s just dove into this Bitcoin
analysis and because we’re going to be

seeing this weekly Candles close,
I do want to start on the weekly chart.

We are above the twenty week moving
average, which currently sits just below

the forty four thousand eight hundred
dollars level, right around that forty

three thousand seven
hundred dollars level.

We have the weekly open.

That’s also why I believe that’s a very

significant support level
to watch right now.

And so with Bitcoin above the twenty week
moving average,

that’s also allowing the total
Cryptocurrency market cap chart to stay

above this twenty week moving average. And
the question right now is,

with this new weekly candle opening,
are we going to test this twenty week

moving average or are we going
to see a continuation to the upside?

To me with this total Cryptocurrency

market cap chart, it looks like we could
see continuation to the upside

with Bitcoin above the twenty
week moving average.

That’s highly probable,

but everything more from the smaller
time frames into the larger time frames.

I don’t usually look at the three day

chart, but I do want to address here
that we are above all moving averages

on the daily chart and now the or
the three day and the fifty period moving

average now is also showing confluence
with the weekly Open,

where we also have the twenty week
moving average on three day chart.

So there’s three points
of confluence there.

And then on the daily chart,

of course there’s not much to see here,
but we do know the 200 day moving average

is above forty four thousand eight
hundred, signifying this certainly is

a critical support level
for any sort of price action.

On the downside, we want to start to see
buyers come in at this 200 day moving

average just before forty four thousand
eight hundred and then a week

to the weekly open
to test, that 20 week moving average

at forty three thousand seven hundred
would probably be the best case scenario

to assume that Bitcoin is ready to go
to forty nine thousand seven hundred.

So how would that look
on the 4-hour timeframe?

Well, we come down,
we test this forty four thousand eight

hundred dollars level,
which means we test the 200 day moving

average and we see are the buyers going
to come in here to then take us up to test

forty nine thousand seven
hundred if that doesn’t happen?

Well, we at least have this weekly open
to watch if we don’t get pressure

from the bulls at this weekly open
at forty three thousand seven hundred.

This right here right now is
going to be my line in the sand.

It was at forty one thousand nine
hundred and fifty, but because we.

I’ve already seen the impulse here to the

resistance of this channel,
I want to raise my line in the sand

at this point in this pocket,
just that this really opened at forty

three thousand seven hundred,
because what’s going to end up happening

here for those tuned in to the Snipers
channel, this green line here is going

to move up here tomorrow because this is
always signifying the previous week open.

And a lot of times I’ve talked
about this in the past.

The whales will like to wait
until the weekly candle closes and then

they’ll take the previous weeks open
and use that as a level to test.

And that’s what the trick,
trap and frustrate crew typically does,

because most traders that are new
to the market are only focused

on the current weekly open,
not the previous weekly open.

So I don’t usually go two weeks back.
I always do.

Keep in mind, though,

the previous weekly open because
especially on a Monday and then turn

around Tuesday, it’s always nice to have
that previous weekly open on the charts.

So that’s always going to be on green if

you guys are tuned
in in the Snipers channel.

So just realize this.

If we come down at this point

and we test this week, look, let’s just
assume we’re testing the weekly open.

We could at any point
here continue further up.

But let’s just assume we test the weekly

open here at this point
for those that have short positions

at this forty seven thousand five hundred
dollar level, or maybe you took a short

on a theory about thirty three hundred,
like I talked about yesterday.

Well, breaking this forty three thousand
eight hundred dollar level,

you’re going to be very happy
with that short position.

If we see a bounce here,

have that break even stop loss to exit
the short because now you don’t need

the hedge, because coming back up towards
these highs here at this forty seven

thousand eight hundred dollars level
from any sort of price,

action on the downside could
signal the push to the upside.

And I want to make this clear.

If forty nine thousand seven hundred

breaks, I don’t expect it
to break before test at least.

But if it breaks,

then I do assume that we’re starting a new
impulse for Bitcoin to potentially start

to get to the area where it
could see new all time highs.

But this forty nine thousand seven hundred
dollars level is extremely critical.

So here’s really how it’s going to look

to keep it simple for those
watching right now.

This right here is a major resistance
at forty nine thousand seven hundred.

And this right here is the major support
that we want to watch at this weekly open

at forty three thousand
eight hundred forty three thousand seven

hundred U.S. dollars,
whatever you want to call it.

So we’ve got this range here
and that’s what we want to monitor.

If we move down, we need
to keep that in mind.

And so with that being said,
Ethereum is starting to slow down.

It’s a leading indicator for Altcoins.

Yes, Cardano has broken out,
but expect the slow down with Cardano

because first goes Ethereum,
then goes Cardano.

And this is just how this market works.

Those are the three most
fundamentally sound project.

I would say B and B is also
quite fundamentally sound.

And then of course,

we’ve got Lincoln Maker down and stuff,
but these are built on Ethereum.

So, you know, we’re
talking infrastructure.

We’re talking the future
of the Internet here.

So Cardano has already seen the move up.

Ethereum is slowing down.

Expect Cardano potentially slow down here
at some point because

just like a theorem right now,
the price that we’re currently sitting

at is when Bitcoin was running
at sixty four sixty five

thousand dollars top back in May.

But right now the theory price is back

to the same levels that it was
at when Bitcoin was at that level.

So a lot of people say, oh,
Altcoins always kopi Bitcoin.

No, not not necessarily in Altcoin season.

And so Cardano was also at that level
where we’re seeing the levels that we saw

when Bitcoin was pretty much
at these highs at sixty thousand.

And so, you know,
when we reach those types of levels,

we want to start looking for a potential
Lower High forming.

Maybe, you know, we’ve got this high.

Maybe we see a Lower High here for,

you know, first to see a Higher High form.
I don’t know.

I mean, that’s likely for sure.

Above thirty four,
fifty four for a theory.

But with Bitcoin yet to get close to its

previous all time highs,
I think a Lower High might be more

probable at this point,
at least for the short term.

And so,
you know, for those that did take short

positions, now you have the opportunity
to keep that stop loss and break even.

I had my stop loss at three thousand three
hundred and thirty three was funny because

the Ethereum, the US dollar perpetual
contracts did hit,

but the spot price never actually hit
three thousand three hundred thirty three.

It like three thousand
three hundred and thirty.

And so, you know,

since I was on that trade, you know,
I decided not to get out on the trade.

So I am still in that short position.

But, you know, that happens a lot of times
and that’s the trick trap and frustrating,

especially because it was
on a Friday evening, right.

Where the markets are
the most manipulated.

So funny story there.

We look at a Ethereum to Bitcoin.

We stay above sixty five
thousand Satoshi expected.

The continuation of Altcoin season,

I know we’re tightening up in this range,
but I’m not going to sit here and say this

is a symmetrical triangle that’s going
to just eventually break out just because

a lot of this is going to be
termed what happens to Bitcoin.

And this is extremely volatile chart like

to see this Ethereum Bitcoin chart just
do abnormal things is highly likely.

It’s taking two extremely volatile
assets and comparing them to each other.

You know, it’s not like taking it,
you know, an asset to compare against

the U.S. dollar,
you know, less of a volatility

and then total Cryptocurrency
market cap chart looking very good.

I want to stay above this one point seven

eight Trillion billion level keeps
us above the 20 week moving average.

Expect continued upside here.

We break this levels when I have concerns.

But, you know,

at this point, any sort of downward or
sideways price action that doesn’t take

Bitcoin below 4800 assumes we’re just
seeing garden variety retests that are,

you know, keeping us
still in this uptrend.

And so things are looking
good in the market.

Others dominance showing more
strength than Bitcoin down.

And it looks like the trend right now is
that Bitcoin dominance wants to come down.

Not a surprise for those have been
tuning in a Snipers channel, so.

Thank you guys for tuning
in to the Snipers channel today.

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Vinicius Ngonyama DeLara says,

I love this video different from the
others, but in a good way, of course.

Thanks for sharing some
hedging strategies, as always.

Keep up the great work.

Yeah, I mean, it’s cool, you know,
like so far, you know what we’ve done here

on the Snipers over the last few months
for those have been tuned in

as we’ve entered a spot positions
in a Ethereum at 1760 in 1770.

So I know a lot of our members and our
students have,

you know, shown me their positions
that they’ve entered at this level.

So that’s good.

The majority of us have
held those positions since.

We haven’t seen downside below
the levels that we entered into.

And, you know, with our positions right
now that we entered here on spot,

you know, in 80 percent plus profits,
I now have a short position open at thirty

three fifteen, which is cool because it
feels good now to know that, you know,

we at least saw this,
you know, short term rejection.

So that’s allowed me to at least put

that break, even stop loss
on my short position.

And so best case scenario for those

that did take a leveraged short position
but didn’t sell their spot position

because they didn’t want to trigger long,
you know, short term capital gains,

for example, and they wanted
to just hedge a short position.

And a lot of you guys were asking me about

the ratios I was talking about yesterday
when I said, you know,

when you take a short position,
you take one tenth of your spot position.

Killer clarify on that.

Let’s say you have a ten million
dollar position that’s on spot.

And I’m just going to use
that as an example.

If you have a ten million dollar position
on spot and you’re up 80 percent

on that 10 million dollar position,
that means you’ve certainly got a million

dollars of profits, which is housemen
that you can play with there.

And you’ve got a ton even more, you know,
of house money still in the position.

If you were willing to take a million
of that and take a shot at thirty five or

thirty three hundred on Ethereum,
you know, with a 10x leverage,

now you’re taking a ten million dollar
short, only risking one million dollars,

you still have your nine million dollars
from 1770 inside of your spot position.

And then let’s say you put your stop loss
at liquidation for the trade.

Right.

A lot of people like to do
that with Perpetual’s.

So let’s say you are willing to lose

the one million dollars in the worst case
scenario happens where a Ethereum shoots

up, you’re one million dollars gets
liquidated, but then you gain another

couple million because you still have
nine million inside the position.

And guess what?

That gave you the opportunity
to adjust your risk on the investment when

we hit this level, because, let’s see,
we see this downside scenario play out.

Now, you’ve got ten million dollars

position and all those profits
come back at your pocket.

You make a couple million just on this

move to the downside and then you’ve
still got the nine million here.

So that’s what I mean by you cut a piece
of your position to hedge

and you do that if you’re
a long term investor in the market,

but you want to take advantage
of the short term fluctuations.

And with that, I hope you guys
enjoyed today’s analysis.

I hope the clarification also,
you know, assisted some of you guys

that were asking questions about
understanding the allocation aspect to it.

And with that,

it’s a Saturday I’m going to, I believe,
head out to Tampa and see Tom Brady,

actually quarterback of the Buccaneers,
a great, great team.

I can’t wait to go out there and,

you know, at least enjoy my weekend after
such a hectic day of trading.

To be honest with you,

it’s really hectic for me over the last
forty hours because that stop us at

three thousand three hundred and thirty
three really tested my patience.

I mean, look at this. What happened here?

It was insane.

Ethereum went up.
Check this out.

So it came up here, the daily open,
it moved up.

So stop loss for the short here was

at three thousand three hundred
and thirty three was right here.

The day opened with a high of
thirty three, twenty seven.

So I’m sitting there
looking at the position.

I’m like OK, I’m fine with this.
Go into liquidation.

Right.

But I’m like OK, I’m sitting here and you
know, I know this is my stop loss.

I don’t want to see the price get there.

And it made me wait all this time,
hours and hours and hours.

And then we come up and then
look this candle high.

Thirty three, twenty three.
I’m like, oh my God.

And then it comes back down
and then out of nowhere, look what.

Happens trick, trap and frustrate crew.

This is what I’m talking about,
that’s why you want to monitor your

trades, especially on the weekend,
or at least have the stop time outs.

Look what they did at the last minute.

Remember, my stop loss was sitting here

at three thousand three
hundred and thirty three.

Right.

So we’re talking literally
just above this level right here.

SPY price didn’t hit it, by the way.

Only Perpetual’s hit it.

But that always happens
because that’s what they do.

The they clear the stops.

It’s called stop hunting.

So this is a minute one minute chart.

Look out of nowhere.

Last minute I’m sitting here.

I’ve already known that we got close
and we keep getting close on the right.

We’re good.
We’re good.

We’ve got no, we’re not good.
OK, we’re good.

No, we’re not.
And then out of nowhere.

Oh my gosh.
Stop hits on the perpetual contract.

Like, wait, what spot didn’t you know

the short and then bam trick
trap and frustrate who comes in.

Funny stuff, right.

I’d love to hear some
of your guys are stories.

I don’t know.
I hope you guys enjoyed hearing that one.

And with that my dogs barking, which means

I’ve got to wrap this video up so I’ll see

you guys tomorrow
until next time Snipers out.