Naeem Al-Obaidi
8 min readSep 11, 2021

Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Saturday as we

are not seeing any price action about
$46,000, which is the important resistance

level right now inside of the range
that we’re playing in between 44,800

and this tone day moving average,
which is at $46,000.

And so because we’re in this extremely
tight area, even if we get above 460,

we have 470 as the final road block for
the Bulls to get above this monthly open.

If we want to assume any further upside.

And of course, you guys know because we

have this Wick down
towards the $41,950 level.

If we start to cross below 44,800,

the speed in which we could come down
below 41,950, which pretty much means

that we’ll go into the high $30,000 price
range becomes extremely likely ETH.

It could happen extremely fast since

the order books have already been
cleared out from this range.

And so because it’s the weekend,

the markets are the most manipulated seem
features being close Sunday is coming.

I want to be a little bit more freestyle

today and we’re going to take a look
at one of my favorite Fibonacci tools,

the fib speed resistance fan,
and actually just take the bottom of this

recent push down to this
candle low here of 28.

And I want to talk about some Fibonacci

levels that also will factor in time,
because what you’ll notice so far is if we

were to look at this Fibonacci retracement
thus far, we have come to the three eight.

We’ve already wicked below the 38% level,
and we know the gold en zone sits right

here between the six one
eight and the six five.

And you can see this is showing confluence

with this $38,000 level down towards this
$36,500 level,

we have this market structural support,
which was previous resistance.

It’s been my area of interest since we’ve
started this downside move coming below

49,700, so understand that if we were
to look at time factored into this

retracement, if we were to just come down
to the gold en zone at this point and we

were to assume that we were gonna hold
this support at least for the short term.

Then what we could expect is towards

the latter part of September at some point
or another, this is gonna be the area

where we’re going to find some volume,
because so far we’ve come to test 38%

Fibonacci level, and we have yet to see
volume indicating that there is

that potential for further retracement
and understand this as well.

We’re going to look at altcoins as well.

We’re not going to really cover

traditional markets today, but right now,
with Bitcoin seeing this downside push,

this is the first time we’ve been
able to test our altcoin prediction.

So I’m not going to just
drill that into this video.

We’ve been talking about that a lot.

But what I am going to talk about is
understand the risk factor here that if

Bitcoin does see some downside,
we are only talking about,

let’s say less than 20% downside,
maybe at the worst towards the latter part

of this, let’s say bear market,
we could even potentially see maybe up

to 40% downside, maybe 50% downside
from the current level of price action.

But I don’t expect Bitcoin to ever come

back down below 20,000
the previous sell time high.

And so with only, let’s say less than 20%

downside here we look at something like
Ethereum, and this is really going

to amplify itself with other altcoins
that are even smaller or market.

But from the current price,

we’re talking about downside risk, just
with the price action being below 34.

54, which it currently is right now.

And so now this is a major resistance,
and we have 40% downside for the next

destination that Ethereum could
potentially find some volume.

But with Bitcoin, it’s less than 20%.

So this is why I’ve been talking about
this altcoin prediction quite

substantially over the last few weeks,
because it could really give people

insight as to the way their portfolio is
currently allocated and potentially

reallocating certain
areas of their portfolio.

Maybe hedging back into Bitcoin to prevent
further downside in their portfolio.

If we were to see this continuation move

to the downside, we’re gonna talk about
the Buller scenario,

but so far because we’re below 460,
I have to be your umpire,

and I have to say that we have to start
looking at the downside targets because we

are not above the 200 day moving average
right now, which is not a positive sign.

And we’re so close to coming below this 20

week moving average that we’ve already
seen the Wick down towards the important

range of where the 20
week moving average sits.

So seeing volume come in is going
to really drive the price down.

If we really start to come
back below 44,800.

Understand that at this point when we’re
looking at Bitcoin price squeezing between

the 50 day moving average and this 200 day
moving average, it is in a critical area.

If we see any volume to the upside,
all we need to do is get above the monthly

open at 470 to assume that we
could see 49, 700 again.

And then from there we can determine
the strength in which we come to this

level and see if this is going to be able
to hold and for us to finally break

through the $500 big even with
decisiveness or if it’s gonna reject.

And so that’s for the Bulls,

let’s say we continue to see downside
pressure pushing Bitcoin down.

Understand that when they say buy the dip,

you want to buy the dip
during an uptrend, right?

So you buy the dip, you buy the dip,

you buy the dip, but when you’re coming
down, you don’t want to buy the dips,

you want to understand
that cash is a position.

Staying on the sidelines is not a bad

thing and that there is a potential there
could be even further downside targets if

we are seeing a reversal
in trend at least for the medium term.

And so buying these dips here gold really

trap a lot of people,
even if we come down to the 100 day moving

average at that $40,000 level,
what if we see a bounce to 47,000 but then

continue downside towards the end of this
year to finally test this multi year

support level down at the $24 to $25,000
range, wouldn’t you more rather buy

the dip at the end of the trend
versus buying it on the way

towards the destination of where
it’s eventually going to go?

We’re at a very critical point and
understanding the fact that right now this

range that we’re in is so critical is
probably the most important thing that you

could walk away with,
because if we break below 44,800,

I don’t expect us to just sit here between
41,040 4000 because we’ve already seen

the order books cleared and seeing a more
intense downside scenario is certainly

on the table right now,
and I want to make that clear now

with Altcoins so far,
our prediction seems to be in line

with the fact that Bitcoin dominance is
in the early stages of a reversal

and could potentially double bottom
exactly like how the DXY did.

And so far we have yet
to form any further lows.

This is causing Ethereum to not perform
a strong as

Bitcoin when it’s coming to this downside
pressure and we are below 34 54

and that is a very big concern for me
because this could potentially bring

Ethereum down to the Nineteeneight
1760 range again.

And the theme to Bitcoin chart
is not showing strength.

We are below the monthly open right now

and now it’s turning into a resistance
and we have not seen anything significant

here other than a retest of these
hives that so far has rejected itself.

And so coming down below this monthly open
right now is not a good sign

for the Ethereum and Bitcoin chart,
and this could lead other altcoins if we

see further downside in the Bitcoin price,
because that’s the only reason I would

expect us to see Bitcoin
dominance increase.

We have to attach that narrative.

So breaking 650 Toshi’s would be
the confirmation that Bitcoin is really

gonna start seeing some strength against
these altcoins, and the gold coins outside

of Bitcoin chart has yet
to form any further high.

So a double top here or a lower high or

a higher high is very likely and that
would coincide with Bitcoin dominance.

Double bottoming right,

sell this is what we’re really
going to have to monitor here.

And with the total cryptocurrency market

cap chart, we also fail to form new highs,
which tells me that this could potentially

be a lower high before
some further downside.

So we really want to monitor this
and the previous week loop at two.

5 trillion kind of sits here at this $2
trillion big even for total market cap.

So we start to break below this area.
One, seven.

8 trillion is the next level of support.

But there is a potential we come back

in the range between 1.1.
3,000,000,000,001.78 trillion, U.


Kind of maybe even form a
higher low here at some point.

And this is just going to be pretty much
money moving in between different coins,

probably a lot of money moving away
from all coins back into Bitcoin.

If we start to see the total
market cap chart come down.

And so we want to keep this in mind.

That ETH the push that we saw
to the upside for the total market cap.

This is when Bitcoin
pretty much topped out.

It maybe didn’t top out in price,
but it topped out in dominance.

And this was the start of 2021.

And this whole move to the upside

for the total market cap from one one,
3 trillion to 225.

9 trillion was altcoin season number one.

And then this pushed down.

We were still in altcoins season because

we came back to form a high
to retest the rejected high.

And this was another altcoin season.

It was a different type of altcoin season.

But if we come down again, this could
change the dynamics of the market.

And so that’s what my concern
has been with the others.

Dominance and Bitcoin dominance
at such critical levels.

And with Bitcoin dominance coming now
for the first time to test the 20 week

moving average, that’s all we need to know
since the start of altcoin season.

This is the first test.

It was the same thing with the DXY.
It came up.

It tested the 20 week moving average
rejected, but then eventually found its

way back above it
and then double bottomed.

And these two charts being
very correlated here.

The Bitcoin Dominic and DXY chart could

certainly indicate hence that the Bitcoin
Dominar also wants to double bottom.

I hope you enjoyed today’s
free style analysis.

I appreciate each and every one of you.

Snipers tune into the channel.

Remember to smash the like one

for the YouTube algorithm and I
will see you guys on Sunday.

It’s going to be interesting because

futures markets will open tomorrow
and we’ll switch our previous weekly opens

as always on the chart,
which is always in green.

And with that, thank you all
for tuning in today until next time.

Snipers out.



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.