Naeem Al-Obaidi
9 min readAug 21, 2021

00:00 cryptocurrency market analysis
03:13 bitcoin analysis
07:00 altcoin cycle update
11:08 traditional markets

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You have to see what’s happening
under the Bitcoin price this Friday.

Is we’re heading into the weekend where
the markets are the most manipulated.

And exactly as we talked about yesterday,

after Bitcoin closed hourly and four hour
candles, about 47 $0,

where we have this weekly open,
we saw a push up to test 49 700,

and now we face this extremely
important resistance level.

And the prediction that I’ve had over
the last few

days is that the Bitcoin Dominance chart
is in the early stages of a reversal.

And this is despite many analysts
on YouTube, I’ve seen them all talking

about Bitcoin dominance
continually in a fall.

We have not formed any further lows since

the May top, and since then,
we’ve only formed higher lows.

And for us to look at market structure

with a chart like Bitcoin Dominance
probably isn’t the best idea.

We just want to kind of monitor the more

simple indicators like these lows
and these higher lows that are forming

to understand the fact that this chart
is extremely correlated to the DXY.

And the Dexy is starting to push up due

to a lot of political changes right now
with the US right now,

we’re seeing then pull out
of the Afghanistan war,

we’re seeing the potential of interest
rates starting to come up.

And this moving the DXY up
is going to affect Bitcoin dominants,

because remember in 2018 when we saw
the DXY starting to move up, and this

credits to Kathy Wood for talking
about this in her 2019 interview.

As you guys know, I’ve talked about this,
we saw the DXY move up,

and that was exactly when
Bitcoin Dominant started to move up.

And the reason this is important is
because what this means is if

Bitcoin Dominance starts to move up,
this is gonna change the way that

profitable traders are gonna
inject capital into this market.

And what this means is from every

consolidation since January,
we’ve seen altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

But because we’ve already seen
a corrective move from this 64,000

to $28,000 level,
I believe the market sentiment is going

to change for the next sideways
move that Bitcoin takes.

Now let’s say we reject 49,700
and we start to see downsides.

I do expect money from Ethereum,

for example, to flow back
into Bitcoin as a hedge.

We can even look at the Cardano,
the Bitcoin chart, but this is all gonna

be confirmed after 650
Satoshis breaks for Ethereum.

And so this is still a little
bit of a premature prediction.

But I think it’s worth talking about right
now, especially with the fact

that the Bitcoin Dominance chart has yet
to form any further low since the top.

And then we’re gonna talk about

the traditional markets that close
today because the DXY is pushing up.

Gold is stillg showing some strength,

and that could affect the cryptocurrency
market heading into this weekend.

You guys are watching the Snipers channel
on a Friday, and this is a very important

day because Saturday and Sunday is
the most manipulated in the cryptocurrency

market due to CME features
markets being closed.

So first we want to start here

on the weekly chart, of course,
because the weekly chart tells us right

now that we are bullish above
this 20 week moving average.

And this is this yellow line, of course.

And the 20 week moving average is
currently sitting at this $43,000 level.

And that’s just below the previous
weekly open at 43,800.

I told you guys this was
an extremely important level.

The whales love to bring price
to a previous weekly open because most

traders are looking
at the current weekly open.

And that’s why we keep the previous
weekly open on our charts in green.

And so when we come into the smaller
timeframes, we know that just below this

previous weekly Open at 43,800
is the 20 week moving average.

So at this point we can assume
that the range that we’re playing in is

the $43,800 level towards
the $49,700 level.

Now we do have this bullish continuation
candle coming towards this $49,700 level.

So with the assumption that altcoins are

going to move into Bitcoin, that’s why
I’ve said don’t short Bitcoin, of course.

And let’s say that Bitcoin does see

a break above 49,700 because so many
altcoins are just flowing back

into Bitcoin that it just
sees so much strength.

Expect a Wick towards the midpoint
of this major range to 580 353.

So I could say 40, you know,

49,700 break and potentially
could bring 54,000 on the table.

But I don’t expect Bitcoin to stay above

50,000 without seeing some resistance
and potentially come back below 49,700.

So realize this, knowing that the range
that we’re in is this $43,800 level

to $49,700 level, we can assume breaking
about 49,700 hourly and four hour candles.

The next destination is
58,000 and the more midterm.

But in the short term,
expect some resistance inside of this

massive range,
which if we were to calculate percentage

wise ETH about 16% range
from 49 700 to 58 353.

Now, let’s say at any point in time

because it’s the weekend we
start to see some downside.

That’s totally fine.
Number one, altcoins are most likely going

to not perform as much as Bitcoin
is going to bleed further.

And the reason that is is if we look

at market cycles in this market,
when Bitcoin comes below the 20 week

moving average, that’s typically
when all wins bleed against


And so since we’ve already broken the 20

week moving average, we can already
assume the sentiment is in that favor.

And so with that in mind,
if we start to see a pullback, remember,

the only way to hedge this is to get all
coins back into Bitcoin or short the all

coin with a small amount of capital
with a little bit of leverage to equal

your spot position to at least
have hedge against downside.

But realize this 43 800 breaking at this

point is going to be the make
it or break it for me.

So I really don’t care if we see sideways
price action between 49,740 4800.

If we break 43 800, though,
that would be the first sign of concern

because that opens the door
to see downside to 34,788.

And if the market starts to get

into a more fearful
mode, we could even potentially come down

to test 28,000 again, maybe even come
just below that at 26,000 to 24,000.

We know there’s a lot of volume

and accumulation,
and that could just be the storyline over

the next few weeks if we
don’t get above 49,700.

So it’s a very important
range that we’re in.

But I do want to address what’s happening
to Altcoins because we

talked about Altcoin season starting
in January, and I told you guys,

even after Bitcoin top Altcoin
season was still intact.

So if you held your all coins,

you did very well because gold coins
have outperformed Bitcoin up until now.

I believe this could shift sentiment.

And so we want to monitor
the Ethereum to US dollar price.

But more importantly, we want to monitor
this Ethereum to Bitcoin price.

Now, what I will say about the Ethereum US

dollar price, though,
is that Bitcoin gets about 49,700.

It’s probably gonna be easy for them

to also get above 34 54
and test some new highs.

But if Bitcoin fails to get about 49,700,
I believe it’s gonna be very difficult

for the Ethereum,
the US dollar price at this point,

with the type of sentiment that we could
expect with Altcoin season starting

to kind of, you know, fade away,
maybe not completely.

But for now, we could maybe see
further downside fourth ten.

If Bitcoin does not get about four 9700
in an area of, you know,

interest for me is going to be this $2500
area where we have confluence with all

daily moving averages
and the monthly open.

But this is what we really want to monitor

because this is gonna give us the leading
indicator for all other altcoins

and whether or not the season
is truly over 650.

Satoshis, if this level breaks,

start to expect the end
of Altcoin season, in my opinion.

I mean, because 650 Toshi’s breaking shows
that Ethereum is moving back into Bitcoin

and that is going to ripple
effect into every other altcoin.

We know how this market works.

First goes Ethereum,
then goes Cardano, right?

Of course, Bitcoin is the major player,
but when it comes to all coins,

it’s Ethereum,
then Cardano total cryptocurrency market

cap are in this range between 178
trillion and two two five 9 trillion.

So a lot of sideways price action.

Now, typically, when you have these large
ranges, I do want to give you guys

a little bit of a quick
food for thought here.

When you have these large ranges a lot
of times, what you can assume is

the midpoint of the range is going
to act as some sort of resistance area.

And so notice how when we got
into the range of 178 trillion down to one

1 trillion,
we did come down into the range,

but we stayed above kind of this midpoint
of this channel where at one point it

acted as resistance
first acted as support.

And so we can assume maybe we’ll see some
downwards price action into this weekend.

I don’t know, this might be
a downward price action.

We can bias because we’re already

at the midpoint of this channel, which
we’ve yet to test the resistance of.

I would say that maybe the bias coming

to this weekend is that we
could see some downside.

I mean, I’m just being honest here,
because the DXY is in a point where it’s

pushing up right now,
breaking highs from April.

And so now we’ve seen the May bottom
for the DXY, and now it was strong few

weeks since their own pale started
talking about interest rates.

This right here is why I’m so bullish
about Bitcoin dominance right now.

And so Bitcoin dominance goes
up when the DXY moves up.

Ecaus, with the DXY moving up,
people are less prone to keep their

capital and assets that are
more app to downside and risk.

And so every other altcoin outside

of Bitcoin has such a small market cap
that they’re just inherently more risky.

So that’s why you see kind of like Bitcoin

acting like what gold acts like
in the traditional market.

And so what we really want to monitor is

Bitcoin dominance chart
and others dominant chart.

But a theme Bitcoin is going
to be the confirmation.

And so Bitcoin dominance, in my opinion,
is going to start to move up.

We go on the weekly chart.

We’ve already tested the 20
week moving average.

So since the top four Bitcoin in May,
we’ve kind of put the break here.

And that’s why when
things start to slow down,

that’s when you want to start assuming
a potential reversal,

we get the confirmation for them
to Bitcoin coming below 650 associates.

The next thing we want to watch is the 20

week moving average sitting just below 47%
dominance for Bitcoin dominance,

that’s the confirmation that altcoins
are going to bleed further.

And Bitcoin is gonna be the hedge
over the next few months.

And with the DXY once again,
if we start breaking 93 82,

I think that’s where we’re gonna see a lot
of concern for traditional markets like

the S Amp P 500,
because the range that this pushes us back

into pretty much removes a lot
of resistance levels as soon as we come

above 93.82. In the past,
we’ve just seen the DXY trend up.

And so that could start to slow down this

Spy 500, and that could affect
the cryptocurrency market.

And another confirmation of this type

of fear coming into the traditional
markets of the DXY moving up would be

for gold to start pushing up because we’ve
seen enough downside over the last year

that I think it’s appropriate for gold
at this point to move up if we’re truly

gonna see capital injected
from traditional markets.

And that would also indicate that we might
see a lot more capital flow just

into Bitcoin, not every other altcoin,
because they’re inherently more risky.

And so with that being said,
I hope you enjoyed today’s analysis.

I want to give away one of my favorite

books on value investing
to one of you snipers.

My light just sell.

All comments are illegible to win,
and we’ll wrap up this video.

Rodrigo, it says your
charting makes sense.

Easy to follow.
Thanks much.

I don’t know if that’s the Rodrigo
from Brazil, but if it is,

thanks for being a member for over
the last three years in our discord.

You’ve helped so much
and contributed so much.

You want to book send me
message on Instagram brother.

And I don’t know if that’s the correct

Rodrigo, but I know there’s
a Rodrigo on our discord.

I appreciate each and every one of you

snipers tune into the channel
until next time.

Snipers out.



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.