Naeem Al-Obaidi
11 min readSep 26, 2021

Snipers, you have to see what’s happening
to the Bitcoin price this Friday is we’re

heading into the weekend where the markets
are the most manipulated,

and Bitcoin has tested the $44,800
resistance level today.

So I have to get this video out to talk

about how the volume is reacting
to this extremely important resistance.

To assume whether or not we’re gonna be

able to get about $45,000 and potentially
head towards this monthly open at $47,000.

And so far we’re seeing a garden variety
rejection of a major resistance at 44,800.

And so when we look at the candle
on the six hour chart,

notice how we did have this bullish
continuation candle followed by a a candle

with a bullish tail trying
to get above 44 800.

But when we go into the three hour chart,

notice how there wasn’t enough
institutional participation in order

to justify the price getting
above 44 800 based on the volume.

And you can see this a lot
clearer on the 1 hour chart.

And so I always say the path of least
resistance when there’s low volume,

which means very little institutional
participation is always going to be

sideways to a little bit
higher inside of a range.

And so the range that we’re currently it

is 41,950 to 44,840 4800 has been on our
channel for over a year now,

and I always say our support
and resistance levels that are in red are

the most important levels based
on volume accumulation distribution.

The VP, of course,

alongside with major weekly and monthly
candle highs and lows where there has been

that type of volume because those are
where we’re going to see the transitions

for Bitcoin that could really
open up more volatility.

So the door of 44 800 not
opening is a huge puzzle piece.

The rejection is a huge puzzle piece
and we only have sell pressure.

You notice here with retail coming
in after we test the 44 800.

So that does indicate it’s
a very key level for traders.

But more importantly,
we are seeing the rejection,

and that’s a puzzle piece because
that assumes that sideways price action is

highly likely inside of the range
of 44,840 1950, which is not a bad thing.

The fact that we’re above 41 950 is good.

I’m glad we saw a little bit of a push up

for Bitcoin like this because it
brought Ethereum back over $3,000.

And we’ll look at some
of the altcoins in a second.

But we know our thesis for all coins,

as been that Bitcoin dominance is
in the early stages of a reversal.

So what really matters is what Bitcoin is

doing, because in this type of season,
what matters is when Bitcoin is coming

down, that’s when we start
to see altcoins bleed out.

But when Bitcoin comes up,
the potential for some altcoins to rally

and for Ethereum, of course, to see
strength becomes likely and higher.

And so we want to watch what happens here

between 44,840 1900 ad 50, because we have
yet to see institutional participation.

The question is, are we gonna be seeing
that volume coming on the weekend or are

we gonna have a pretty stale weekend now I
do want to look at the 15 minutes chart,

then the three minute chart,
because we can get some hints as

to the psychology
behind what’s happening at this test.

So when we initially came up to test
44,800, notice how we did see a good

amount of buy volume coming
on the 15 minutes chart.

And then we finally saw I sell
bar on the volume that exceeded the buy

volume that came on the previous
15 minutes candle.

And that was exactly at 44 800.

And that started
the sideways price action.

And then we continue
to see these large spikes.

Notice here of sell pressure.

So I think this is a big puzzle piece

that after we came to 44 800 and we’re
just looking at the 15 minutes chart,

we started to see these larger
spikes in sell pressure.

So it looks like there are more
sellers than buyers in the market.

And so the buyers are kind of ouw

just keeping the price of float while
the sellers are really spiking the price

to prevent it from now
exceeding that $44,800 level.

Until we start to see
institutional participation.

In my opinion, we’re going to be going
sideways between 41,950 and 44,800.

Now let’s say that we start to see some

volume coming that is
institutional type of volume.

Then we really want to start monitoring I

believe, the six hour chart because
the problem that I’ve seen

throughout the drop here after we
came above 50,000 on September 6.

Here is the fact that on the six hour
we’ve seen all of this sell pressure

a and we’ve only seen large
spikes of sell pressure.

We have not seen large
spikes of by pressure.

And this is the institutional
time frame, the six hour.

And so I want to see at least one green

candle that is at least
as high as these two.

Here the one on the 13th or the 22nd or

preferably something like what happened
on the 7 September when we initially came

down from the $54,000 level
all the way down to 41,000.

I want to see this type of volume
to assumable shorts term bottom.

I don’t think we’ll get that until we
start to see a little bit more volatility.

And so for now I’d like to see some volume

that equates to some
of the larger volume bars.

And then my expectation for a short
term button will only be confirmed.

I believe if we see some six hour volume
equate to the exact or higher amount

of volume that took us from the $54,000
level down to the low 40,000.

So that’s what I’m watching when it comes

to the dynamics of micro
and macro time frames.

And then, of course,

on the three minute chart there is I would
say a battle here with Bulls and bears.

But for the most part,

as soon as we got to 44,800, we can
even just kind of remove the volume.

That was not at 44,800 to see what

happened on the smaller
timeframes at 44,100.

And notice how there has been a lot
of sell pressure just right now.

Actually, sell, this is
a three minute candle.

Look, Bitcoin is pushing
up back to 44,800.

Let’s see if this turns red or if it stays

green here, it’s gonna
close in 20 seconds.

We’ll probably find that out right now.

So here I’ll show you guys right now

in the next 15 seconds, how a micro
timeframe analyst can analyze.

Marcus, look, we’re getting
this volume right now.

If this is stays green here
in the next 7 seconds, 6 seconds.

This is huge.
This could be a push to the upside

on the smaller timeframes, and we’re
so close to 44,000 are all right.

That’s it.
We got the close.

So look at that.
Now we finally got some buy volume

that exceeds all of the sell
pressure since 44,000.

Now, let’s say we do start to come up

about 44,800 since we’re seeing this
already on the smaller time frame as sell,

this is turning into like
a live action video.

If we look at this channel resistance,

this is gonna be the first place the Bulls
are gonna be able to get to it’s gonna be

right around that $45,300
level we cross 45,300.

That’s a very bullish thing for Bitcoin,

because now 46,000 previous
weekly open comes on the table.

And then, of course, we have
this area here where we have the monthly

open at 47,000,
which is quite significant.

So I think we’d want to monitor
that and then this white line I’m going

to remove here because
it’s not as significant.

And so if we get above 45,300,

there’s a potential we come up
to the monthly open at 47,001st.

We’re gonna have to conquer 460.

But notice how we already have one, two,

three road blocks ahead
just to get to 49,700.

And so these are the three
road blocks to the upside.

I think that the main thing I’d like

to see outside of volume analysis
for price action here is 47,000.

If I want to assume upside for Bitcoin,

I don’t think anything below that would
really be too spectacular in my opinion.

And so 47,000 is the bullish confirmation.

And then at this point, if we get above
44,800, it will turn into a support.

But we want to see a full
daily candle above that.

But for now, 41,950 is our making or
break it support level four Bitcoin.

The longer we say about 41,950,

the higher that we stay above 41,950,
the better for a Bitcoin.

The lower and closer we get to it.

That opens up that downside scenario

that I believe could potentially take us
to 36,500, because that means that if we

come down to test 41,950
for another knock on this door.

It tells me this is not the final
destination for Bitcoin.

And so we already have not necessarily

seen the sort of price action you would
assume at a final destination when we came

to 41,150, because first we got
the Wick and then we came below.

So we just keep clearing the order books

like we did here to drive
price even lower.

And so when you reach a destination,
there’s two things that could happen.

Number one, you reach ETH destination,

you immediately turn back around,
and that would be, let’s say, 38,000.

That could be the most bullish
downside scenario here for Bitcoin.

We turn right back around.

It’s just a Wick.

The other way that you can reach

a destination is you come to it,
and then you have a cup of coffee

at the destination, and that means,
okay, it’s not the final destination.

Now there’s likelihood this is either
going to continue in the same direction

after ETH cup of coffee or
reverse in the other direction.

And that’s when you have to look

at the micro time frames if
it’s having a cup of coffee.

So those are the two ways that I would

look at a chart and say, okay,
that reach the final destination.

Of course, volume is
the most important thing.

Price action is the second
most important thing.

And then market structure is
the ETH most important thing.

When analyzing markets and predicting

the next move,
that was a pretty good Bitcoin analysis.

If I do say so myself,
I’m gonna just quickly just run over

what’s really important about the other
parts of the market right now to just kind

of complete ETH three
dimensional part to this.

And then we’ll finish with a 4D,
you know, traditional markets outlook.

So really quick with Ethereum,

the leading indicator for all coins, we’re
back inside the channel of 3000 to 34.

54 until we see 34.

54, we can’t assume any upside for

Ethereum to see potentially new
yearly highs or new all time highs.

So this is a major resistance
and the support of our channel is 980.

So we have a market structural
support right now at 3000.

But our real major support level
where there’s volume is 1980.

And so Ethereum could be extremely

volatile as long as the Ethereum
to Bitcoin chart stays above 65,000.

But what we do need to consider is that we

are on the way down right
now with this chart.

And then if we break 65,000 Toshi’s 53,500

comes on the table, and that’s
a pretty big gap right there.

So with 65,000 Toshi’s just
down to 54,000 is a 20% drop.

And remember, the only reason I would

expect Ethereum not to perform as well
as Bitcoin is if Bitcoin is dropping.

So that’s 20% just off
of the theorem to Bitcoin chart.

Plus whatever Bitcoin goes down.

And so that’s why you start to see
amplified downside with all coins.

If Bitcoin dominance is starting

to reverse and that’s
exactly what’s happening.

And why Bitcoin dominance.

If we look at this daily chart up until we
came down to test a previous resistance as

a support, we’re just seeing
new lows on a daily basis.

And so this is just a garden variety

retest but nothing to go home and sell
grandma about since we’re still below

the weekly and monthly open
for the the Bitcoin chart.

Assuming that the trend for all coins is
still in the favor of the snipers channels

thesis that we are in the early stages
of a Bitcoin dominance reversal that is

going to play out as a double bottom here
at 40% dominance and start heading back

towards homeostasis,
which likes to sit at the 200 week moving

average sitting right
at this 58% dominance level.

I believe this would only happen if
Bitcoin price is coming down and there’s

sphere in all coins to drive capital
into Bitcoin as a storage of values.

A head kind of like how gold
acts in traditional market.

So that is still looking like the case.
And then of course,

the DXY is our four dimensional
confirmation of that Bitcoin dominance

prediction being a very correlated
asset or chart to Bitcoin notice.

I love ally correcting myself from calling

the dollar in asset by the ways
people are saying, what is the DXY?

It’s the dollar value against
all other major currencies.

And it basically tells you what
is the strength of the US dollar.

It’s a very, very important chart.

And so that’s already double
button got a way above the 20.

We moving average.

And that’s why I’m expecting the Indominus
do the same as it did in 2018.

And then with commodities,
not much to go home and talk about.

So we’re not going to really
go too far into it.

But we do need to look at the Spy 500
because we came down to this 100 day

moving average, and now we’re
at the 50 day moving average.

So we’ve yet to get above it.

But if we get above it, that’s a huge
positive for the crypto market.

If we rejecta that’s going to be
an interesting thing because understand

this every time we’ve come down so far,
this wonder day moving average since

September 2020, we’ve held it and we’ve
come right back above 50 day.

This is the first time in 2021 that we
are testing the 100 day moving average.

And so it would be a major puzzle piece

for us not to get back above the 50 day
moving average sitting exactly where Spy

500 Emini futures contract
that’s sitting right now.

And so maybe that’s why Bitcoin
couldn’t break above 44, 800 yet.

But if this breaks above a 50 day moving

average, the likelihood of that becomes
highly likely for Bitcoin.

And if we reject what we want to monitor

is are we going to break
the 100 day moving average?

Because that would be a big
concern for the market.

I don’t think we’d get that answer
until the DXY can move out of this range

because this range that it’s sitting
in doesn’t really breed too much fear

in the markets between
92.62 and 93 point 82.

Obviously it’s had its effect,

but until we get above this level
at 93.82, I don’t think we’ll see

a downside effect
for the tradition markets.

The longer we stay at the lower end

of this channel or come down to a
lower end part of the channel,

the better for markets to see some
continued upside and US dollar terms.

With that, I am still in Greece and I will
potentially be going to Dubai after this.

So those in Dubai hit me up.

Just might as well wrap up
with another view of Greece.

I mean, I’m only here for three more days.

It’s soaked beautiful to just be out
here with the wind and the beach right.


And with that, I hope you all
enjoyed today’s analysis.

I think that was all I
wanted to cover today.

And remember to smash that like meme,
for the YouTube algorithm that we can hit

hundred thousand snipers on this
channel and until next time.

Thank you all for tuning in today.

Snipers out.



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.