EMERGENCY BITCOIN UPDATE AFTER REJECTION OF $44,800 (& alts)
You have to see what’s
happening to the Bitcoin price.
This Saturday is shortly after my video.
Yesterday we got the rejection at 44 800
and we came back down to test the 100 day
moving average with the candle low
at 4675, we formed a higher low
exactly like what happened when
we initially came down from 500.
Notice how we cleared the volume below 44,
800, then formed a higher low before
seeing the continuation to the downside.
I want to talk about whether or not we’re
gonna be seeing something similar
for Bitcoin to potentially
see continue downside.
How altcoins are reacting to this.
And now that we’ve seen not only a retest
of 44 800 is a resistance, but we’ve also
seen a retest of 41, 950 as a support.
We can start looking at the volume.
We’ll also look at this 100 day moving
average right at that 4800 ish level
and we’ll talk about what we’re seeing
when it comes to the Bulls
versus bears who’s in control.
And if we look at just the six hour where
institutions love to imprint their volume,
it’s not as popular of a time frame.
Of course, for those who have been tuned
in the Cypher channel, you know,
I love using the six hour chart.
Notice how we have yet to see and, you
know, extravagant amount of by volume.
We’re seeing ascending sell pressure here
and we’re seeing descending by pressure.
And this, to me, is a concern.
The fact that we came down already below
41,950, even below 40,000 on the 21
September and now we’ve already
come back down again below 41,950.
I told you guys, a second knock on this
door is going to be quite the show
for the bears because they’re clearing
volume in this range already.
And so we could just assume
that the 41,150 to $30,000 range
has already been cleared out.
If we start to see more downside below
41,950, where we know that’s the major
level, the potential of us coming down
to 36,500 to 34,788 becomes
a lot more likely now.
And this is a concern because it puts us
below all daily moving averages
and things of that nature.
So this is an extremely
important time for Bitcoin.
We’ll look at both ends of the equation.
The Bulls and bears are extremely
important this channel.
And so we’ll see, what would it look like
to see a successful rescue operation?
But so far we came down, we stare,
stepped our way up,
and then we immediately saw some
institutional sell pressure.
They wanted to so their Bitcoin,
I guess at 44,800 and they were willing
to take prices all the way down to 40,000
this wasn’t the first time this happened.
Does that sell you the psychology behind
institutionsa thinking that okay,
maybe there is another destination
in mind and it might be lower sell.
I think that that’s
certainly on the table.
Remember, I really want to see some volume
that equates to the type of volume
that we’ve been seeing
since the move below 500.
We have yet to see by volume equate
to this a lot of large
spikes of sell pressure.
And so that is a concern for you.
I think at this point we could assume
that if we go into the more micro
timeframes, if we start to come back down
to 41, 950, the potential bus breaking
down below the $38,000
level becomes very likely.
And so there’s two ways
this could play out.
Let’s first look at the downside.
And since we’re seeing downside right now,
when you reach your destination,
I talked about this history either reach
destination and turn right back around.
And so that could just be a Wick.
I think 38,000 would be the most bullish
bearish case for Bitcoin right now
if we start crossing below 41,950.
But another way you can reach
a destination is you come to that
destination and you have a cup of coffee.
And at that point you have to start
monitoring the smaller timeframes
to determine whether the next move is
going to be a continuation
in the same direction or a reversal.
And that’s gonna all have to do
with the volume that we see.
But so far you can see as much
as we do have some buyers in the market.
The type of sell pressure we’re seeing is
institutional when we see these large
spikes and the type of by pressure we’re
seeing is more retail as we
just kind of descend away.
And so notice how if you look at the way
that we came to test 440 800,
we initially saw the rise and sell
pressure that brought us below 400
and then notice how we only
got so much buy volume.
And as it started to descend
and run out, we got to 44,800.
And then the institutions
decided to start selling.
And so this to me,
is a concern when it comes to volume.
And so for the upside at this point,
we have to get back to 44,800.
I think that a second time at 44,800 is
a very positive thing at this point,
and that could be even a stronger
poll for Bitcoin to start heading towards
47 and 48,000, where we have
the weekly monthly open.
But until that happens,
we have to start monitoring this
range between 41, 950 and 44 800.
Now, if we go on the daily chart and we
really start to look at what range we’re
in, the current daily candle, which closes
in 17 hours, is fully above 41,950.
So we could certainly also stay here
for the Bulls that 38,000 is just not yet
on the table until this daily candle
comes below 41,950 once again.
So understand this as well.
Remember, we talked about the altcoins
that would potentially start
bleeding out against Bitcoin.
And notice how with this Ethereum
to Bitcoin chart, we formed another new
and this is a major puzzle best for all
altcoins because I told you guys
above 65,000 satoshis Ethereum does have
the potential to see one or two
days where outperforms Bitcoin.
But when we see these downside moves,
you immediately start to see these awkward
like Ethereum first shedding
ly more value against Bitcoin.
And so the downside moves when Bitcoin
dominance is it early stages of reversal
are what are very impactful to these
altcoins that cause them to bleed out.
And so the theory of Bitcoin chart still
looks bearish the fact that it’s forming
Elos the theme of the US dollar price
wasn’t able to even get much above 3200
before seeing some downside pressure.
Remember 34 54 to 1980s the range.
I don’t believe that if Bitcoin, you know,
you can’t get above 44,800,
that Ethereum even has the potential
at this point to get to 34 54,
we have to see between get and conquer
that $44,800 level up until then,
the more sideways price action and these
large swings to the downside that we see
with Bitcoin, it could really put them
in a vulnerable place to come back down
below 2000 because that’s
how big this range is.
And every time we’ve been in this range
we’ve sliced through and we broke 19 ETH.
We sliced all the way up to 4000.
When we broke down from 34 54, we sliced
all the way back down below 2000.
And so when we started to move above 1980
for a second time we sliced right back
above towards the $4000 level
and now we’re back below 34 54.
So the likelihood of this just kind
of slicing like butter down to the high
thousands, you know,
low $2000 levels for Ethereum is highly
likely in between the range
of 34 54 and 1980.
So we’re not being
bearish on this channel.
We’re just being the umpire and giving it
to how it is the total cryptocurrency
market charges yet to break 1.78 trillion.
That is buying us some time to see
some sideways price action.
I think that’s going to be really telling
to see futures markets open here
and traditional markets really
start to play their games tomorrow
where institutions are going
to start hedging their bets.
I think that could really give us some
hints as to what’s happening
to the cryptocurrency market and where
we’re going to potentially go.
Bitcoin down is still not coming down
below any of the May lows,
potentially double bottoming here.
Which is why we’re seeing than a Bitcoin
kind of fall off a cliff every single day.
It’s forming new lows.
The old coins outside of Bitcoin
failing to form just another high.
From what happened on the 10 September.
We’re already seeing some downside here.
This is a huge puzzle piece because this
is also a lower high and we couldn’t
surpass the May hives,
indicating that is a macro puzzle piece
that could potentially be assuming this
right here is the lower high and there is
further upside for the shorts and medium
term for the gold coins
outside of Bitcoin.
So very interesting stuff happening.
Dxy still inside of the range,
keeping it neutral,
keeping the markets kind of at Bay if we
cross above 93.82, that’s
what I’m watching to see.
Some volatility to downside.
We cross below 92, six, two.
That would be gold for the Bulls,
because now we can start to see the more
relief away from downside pressure
on the assets as the dollar value
could potentially come down.
So we really want to much this.
We’re above the weekly monthly open.
So the duck is bullish on the DXY
right now and then commodities.
Not much happening here, but the Spy 500.
I want to wrap up here and talk about us
coming above this 50 day
moving average so far.
That’s a great thing.
That’s what we want to see.
As we start to see Monday
come into the equation.
We really want to see
some strength Spy 500.
That would be great for the crypto market.
That could really put the potential
for Bitcoin to come back to 500
at some point or another on the table.
As long as we’re not coming back below
this 100 day moving average for the Emini
futures contract at our 300,
that assumes a healthy environment
for the cryptocurrency fires.
So a lot of revolving
parts happening right now.
I think the main thing to realize is
Bitcoin has been stair stepping its
way and it’s been moving sideways.
And every time we’ve seen institutional
pressure and volume coming,
it’s been to the sell side.
And so I think that that’s
a major puzzle piece.
If we were to just kind of wrap up this
video and talk about maybe the daily
candle and how that closed yesterday.
We did get sort of a bullish tail,
but it was a red candle, the volume
indicating more sellers than buyers.
Eth concern for me right now is
institutions are in control and every time
they get the chance they’re pushing price
I don’t know what destination I have
in mind, but I believe 36, 500 is gonna be
the first area we’ll start to see volume.
It would be a garden variety retest
of a previous resistance when we first
came from the $64,000 level
all the way below 30,000.
This was the market structure resistance.
And so since we’ve broken back above
50,000, you’ve never come down to test us.
I think this would be the initial place.
We’d see some volume for the downside
and then potentially come towards 47,000
at some point to see
a little bit more sideways price action
for Bitcoin, it’s a large asset now
we’re talking seven $800 billion.
We don’t need to expect the worst here
and see 20 30% drops on a daily basis.
I think that the institutions
want to keep the price of flow.
They’re gonna let their retail traders buy
up some of these dips,
but for the overall macro trend here we
have to realize that these institutions as
they’re starting to sell,
they’re looking for places to accumulate.
And so for the more macro view, I think
that maybe we come down to 360 five.
I’m just gonna throw out a scenario
on my table that I’ve been talking about
on the channel, come back up to 470 after
the test 36,500, and then maybe at some
point or another, it’s probably
going to have to be fast.
We come back down below 260 to test this
major structural support
that dates back to 2020.
I think that this is a very,
very big area of interest for institutions
to potentially want to accumulate.
And so we know they want
to get these lower prices.
And I think that this could
be a very possible scenarios.
It won’t put Bitcoin below
its previous alltime highs.
That follows the rule that as Bitcoin
breaks in new all time,
it never comes in each test, it,
but it puts us close and allows
institutions to get those final positions.
And so I think that that’s the big
downside scenario that we
could expect here.
Nothing crazy, to be honest, though.
I mean, if we just look at where prices
now to the Max severe downside scenario,
it’s less than 50% at this point.
For those that have been in the market
since Bitcoin broke 10,000,
that’s not a big deal, right.
But for those that have been a little bit
later to the market,
maybe that means that you’re gold
have to be a little bit more patient.
Now, for the upside,
we get above 47 to 48,000,
or we have this monthly weekly open.
As I’ve been saying now,
we can start talking about a potential
push back up, but until that happens,
we cannot assume that the trend
is bullish right now.
We could certainly say that we’re still
in a bear market, and I think that that’s
the right thing to say, because that means
we’re closer to the end than the start.
Since we’ve yet to form any further highs
from 640 a lot to monitor here,
and I will be traveling tomorrow.
So I’m going to try my best
to get a video out.
But maybe this might be the last time I
show you guys my beautiful view here
and I thank each and every one of you guys
for tuning into the snipers channel today.
I want to wrap up this video now
and remember to smash like one
for the YouTube algorithm that we can hit
100,000 snipers on this channel with that.
Thank you all for tuning in to I think
that’s all I wanted to cover
until next time.