This next BITCOIN move is CRUCIAL for 2020. Is the big money heading towards BTC?
What is going on guys Nayeem Al-Obaidi here, I hope you’re all having a wonderful October heading into the holiday season. I’m super excited to talk about why Bitcoins next move is crucial as we head into 2020 and how this relates to the total stock market. As well as Gold and other traditional assets and commodities and what we’re seeing right now in the total cryptocurrency sphere. We’re going to be looking at Bitcoin Dominance and taking questions from our live audience as well I’m also gonna be giving a book away at the end of this livestream Principles by Ray Dalio my favorite book as you guys know.
Let’s talk about what’s happening here with Bitcoin so you can see right now at this level that we’re below this volume right now. We’ve got a lot of volume in this area but we are still below it and I think the biggest reason we’re staying in this zone right now is we’re starting to see Altcoins see some momentum.
But for the most part if we look at Bitcoin dominance, you can see we’re also quite stagnant here. What I like about this chart is that we are starting to head down where all of this volume is at towards that support level and when we look at total cryptocurrency market cap we’re not necessarily seeing that type of decline. You can see we’re staying around that 200 billion dollar market cap level and we know this is a very strong level of support in regards to the total crypto currency markets.
I think that’s something very important to note but I don’t believe we’re going to necessarily see a full-on altcoin cycle because what we’ve seen over the last few months is the fact that bitcoin is proving itself as king in this market. This is an asset that people are watching this is the asset that Institutions are watching and I think they’re waiting for a Bitcoin to start heading towards more reasonable levels in order to start putting more liquidity into this market. You can see right now at this level and when we look at market structure which is extremely important in determining future price action you can see we’re at this level where there’s not really much market structure holding us here. If we look at this area here right now, we’re below a previous resistance level. When we look here we’re above a previous support level and when we look here we’re in the middle of this major zone where we saw this big drop and a big push up.
So where we’re at right now is a very important area because if we start to see any downside, I don’t believe we’re going to see any significant downside below the 6,000 dollar level. I’ll tell you exactly why when we look at this chart here, you can see this area at that 6,000 dollar level is where we have a lot of volume here to the right as you can see and we know that in fact this area is where we saw some very good consolidation previously for Bitcoin. As soon as it went below that, this was the accumulation phase in which we saw smart money come into the market and took advantage of this big run-up.
In the overall cryptocurrency sphere when we look at confirmed transactions per day, you can see here on this chart we’re seeing the confirmed transactions per day level out around that 300,000 transactions per day level. This was the peak in 2017 when we hit 20,000 US dollars for one Bitcoin you can see we didn’t quite get to that same exact peak here but what I like about this chart is instead of seeing a major drop down we’re starting to see it in a healthy phase of correction versus an unhealthy phase of correction.
When we look at Bitcoin general in comparison to traditional markets and commodities which are actually performing really well this year. It’s still the top performing asset of 2019 and therefore I don’t believe institutions are just going to leave it on the table. I think they are waiting to go ahead and put more liquidity into this market as diversification is a very important part of safe investments. I am very confident that institutions are eyeing this just based on regulations and how things are maturing now.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin ETFs are still not approved we’ve seen a decline after decline by the SEC when Bitcoin ETFs are on the table but I believe that over time once we start to see more regulated markets come into play. We’re going to see more confidence with regulations that will allow Bitcoin to then see some liquidity from institutions come in.
In the overall perspective here with Bitcoin, I don’t believe this is an area that’s dangerous to start entering and positions. However, there is a possibility for further downside I wouldn’t be surprised for us to go ahead and start to see a little bit of a direction down towards where we see this volume in order for us to then see more liquidity come in and for this to start to head towards some higher levels and I think a big part of this recent downturn with Bitcoin has to do with the overall traditional markets. Let’s pull up the S&P; 500 for example, there was this huge notion of a potential recession coming this year, especially when we saw this double top, there’s this top here that formed and then we saw this very large correction here. People got quite scared to be honest here and you can see we had a bearish divergence with RSI where we saw price action form two peaks one lower high and then a higher high and then looking at RSI you can see there was a divergence with a lower high following that higher high and so I think that was an initial reason for people to get back into these safe harbor assets.
These assets such as Gold that are limited in quantity, you know Bitcoin is limited in quantity being the digital Gold and I think that’s one big reason we saw Gold and Bitcoin see a very nice push up.
You know gold breaking highs since 2014 Bitcoin coming out of its bear market but now that we’re seeing a little bit more strength you can see we’re forming new highs and traditional markets that to me is showing that potentially institutions started to put some money into these safe haven assets like Bitcoin. We saw that pump up but now they’re starting to liquidate their investments going back into some stocks going back into traditional commodities seeing that there is still very much strength in the market and you know when people are expecting a recession they’re typically isn’t as bad of a recession. I think that’s a very important thing to note here you can see this recent correction in the S&P 500 from September of 2018 down to around January of 2019 was about 20% the corrections people were expecting but it wasn’t that bad and I think it’s because people were expecting it. You know the 2008 that was unexpected and that was a very harsh correction, but in 2019 it wasn’t as harsh. If you read Principles by Ray Dalio he actually owns one of the largest most successful hedge funds in the world. He says there’s a market correction every 10 at 12 years, this 20% correction could have been that correction but I think right now is a very crucial point in not just Bitcoin but in traditional markets because you can see we’re waiting to see if the traditional S&P; 500 is going to continue to see newer highs or is it going to continue this uptrend because obviously other markets like the Nasdaq are going to follow.
You can see with the Nasdaq here its looking a little bit different, you can see it’s almost like we have this double top but we’ve got this strong support here from this previous top and now we’re starting to see some consolidation around these highs and we’re starting to see more liquidity flow away from Bitcoin and Gold back into traditional markets.
I think that’s a big reason we’re starting to see this drop in Bitcoin here now when we look at the weekly moving averages you can see here. We’ve got this support on this weekly moving average and I believe this weekly moving average is the 100 week moving average and you can see that 100 week moving average in orange here is holding us right now as Support for Bitcoin, but we have that potential to go down in that 50 week moving average, which would also take us to that $6,800 dollar level which would coincide with that previous analysis we just did on the daily chart where we may see that potential correction down to this high-volume area of $6800. I think that area of 1600 is the place to watch that doesn’t mean we’re not going to see opportunities here when you know leveraged trading. For example, our Bitmex signals we’ve had have been very good short signals. We’ve had some very good long signals taking advantage of this initial pop here. We had a signal at $7800 that went all the way back up to 8800. We were able to get some very healthy profits there, I’m not surprised for us to see another movement up and maybe another movement down. In my opinion I see us possibly heading towards that 9,000 level before we see the final correction down to that 6,800 level. I don’t think that is the most probable scenario though just because of the fact that if we start to head past 9,000 I think that we’ll see a lot more volume coming into the market and we’ll start to see this correct back up towards the upside into that bull market but for now we are obviously in this area where we just don’t know whether or not it’s going to go up or down but there’s a high potential for us to see that lower price of that $6,800 level but you know, you see these analysts posting that it’s going to go down to 3,800 or 2800 or Bitcoin is dead. That’s just not the case at the end of the day. We have a lot more use case and we see a lot more institutional adoption.
There’s a lot more US regulated exchanges like Gemini, Coinbase, and. Binance opening up a U.S Binance, these are all great things for this market. Some people ask, why is the U.S so strict when it comes to this market? Well the U.S is a very strong economy and they want to protect their investors. That’s why only accredited investors can invest in hedge funds, right? It’s because they just don’t want random people putting their life savings into these volatile assets and then lose it and then figure out well, now I don’t have my retirement or now I just lost all the savings that I’ve saved up for the past 10 years. The U.S. is very cautious with how everyday people are exposed to potential investments and so when it comes to Binance US the reason they went ahead and separated the main finance platform was because they limited the amount of tokens that could be placed on there based upon which tokens have US regulations in place and are approved with the SEC. These are all great things for this market it shows the market maturity. Once again, it’s still the top performing asset of 2019 so if you’re losing hope on Bitcoin, that’s the time to start having hope in Bitcoin. Like Warren Buffett once said. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Let’s start to actually look at the total cryptocurrency market cap chart here because I want you to pay attention here to Ethereum. When you look at Ethereum you can see we had this breakout recently before we saw Bitcoin break that major support level. We saw Ethereum get liquidity and we saw this major by volume come in but you can see it topped out around that $366 dollar mark in June of 2019 and as of recent when we look Ethereums chart we actually saw this huge huge drop and then that pushed back up to around $220 until we saw that sell-off.
What I’m seeing with altcoins is the fact that people are not as confident with these altcoins as they are with Bitcoin, just because of the fact that the fundamentals are changing quite a bit and we’re just not seeing as much use case with these altcoins as people expected and that’s something that we’ve always talked about on this channel it’s something I’ve always talked about the fact that 90% of altcoins are not going to be here ten years from now and I stick with that rule and that belief and the reason is because the altcoins for the most part never had a use case and so Bitcoin is the one and only token that has almost a hundred percent market visibility if you go to anyone and say have you heard of Bitcoin they’ll most likely say yes. If you say have you heard of Ethereum, I’d say one out of five would say yes, and so bitcoin is the one asset that has been able to really get that mass adoption but really what’s happening at this point in my opinion is regulations are still holding it back and it’s just a matter of time until we start to see the regulations kind of lean away from Bitcoin. It just takes time Bitcoin, it’s the top-performing asset of this year and you see we cannot lose hope in it and at the end of the day these corrections are extremely healthy. Especially in this bull market, this isn’t the type of correction we saw in 2017. In 2017 we saw a blow off top and went all the way back down to around $10000 shot back up to $17000, then it started to see a huge correction back down. This was a very healthy consolidation people had a ton of time to take profits at the $10000 level when you hit 10 and $11000 quite a few times. At the end of the day only the people that weren’t necessarily trading the market or just weren’t aware of the market are the ones that kept holding their Bitcoin during this push down but for the most part if you were able to get your position below $7000 and it when it hit that $13–14000 level and started to consolidate. Most of you were able to go ahead and obtain your profits so it wasn’t as much of a violent push up it was very healthy.
The reason for that in my opinion is because it’s a global market when you look at most markets like the Nasdaq , S&P 500 years, you know, you’re strictly limited to US investors or The European markets. It’s just one specific demographic or geographic area that can invest in that asset whereas with Bitcoin if you’re in India, if you’re in China, if you’re in Japan if you’re in the US if you’re in Canada If you’re in South America you’re able to buy into it. So in my opinion it’s a representation of the overall global economy versus just a representation of a strict geographic area. That’s what it’s all about it’s that decentralized, that mantra of decentralization, that’s really the most exciting part.
At the end of the day, it’s not just about trading. It’s also about holding something for the long-term right the most successful investors are the ones that dollar-cost average into an index fund for example and just wait it out 10 20 30 40 50 years. Fidelity is one of the largest institutional providers for trading and also a huge provider for mutual funds they did a study wanting to know who are their most successful investors?
They looked at all of their accounts and asked who are their most successful investors and there were two categories of people that were dead and the second category are people that had accounts and forgot about them so when you think of that and you realize you know, just understanding markets understanding the art of Dollar cost averaging and then understanding how to trade these are all skills and principles that could allow you to not have to work a job you know that it can allow you to travel and make money. You could allow yourself to make good financial decisions long term. It’s all about diversification I’d like to say put, you know, 90 percent into a safe haven asset, maybe an indexed one that’s already diversified, maybe even the whole stock market, right?
So instead of purchasing one stock at a time you’re in an index fund. You’re exposed to the whole market d so you’re maximizing your diversification minimizing your risk and then take the 10% and use that for trading, right?
Because if you lose the whole 10%, guess what at least you’re 90 % is safe and so that 10% it could make you a full time income and could be enough to make 3–5 grand a month in order to sustain yourself. The rest put into you an index fund that will build your wealth long term from when you retire. It’s just understanding the art of compounding interest and the art of time. You give yourself time and you’re able to build a successful portfolio versus just being unaware and just throwing something into a market that you just don’t understand and losing money. For example, I know a lot of people were buying Bitcoin at these highs here but it just wasn’t the right time to get in right. These are the times that you want to start thinking about putting in long term positions but once again, it’s all about dollar cost averaging and I mentioned before, I just don’t see us seeing much lower levels beyond that $6,800 price point. One big reason for that is when we pull up those three moving averages as we just showed previously, what we’re really looking at right now is that we found support right above that 100 week moving average and then when we look at this 50 week moving average we still have that area here to start seeing that potential correction down. I think that’s very important to notate here.
Let’s go ahead and pull up another chart here for you guys just to actually look at the shorts and Long’s. As we look at shorts and long you can see shorts are having a fun time and and we’re at these lower areas. When we look at Long’s here you can see they’re staying more consistent. We’re not necessarily seeing as much of some volatility with the longs. Just in general, being long on Bitcoin I think there’s a study that was done recently that said anybody that’s held Bitcoin for more than two years has never lost money, I think that’s extremely interesting.
Question: Why does everyone trash XRP?
They have a very centralized approach with the way they govern their company and they govern their token. Just randomly burning tokens and things of that nature.
I wanted to make sure we were able to go over Bitcoin this major move that’s happening right now and why it’s crucial for 2020 because I think 2020 is going to be the year for a Bitcoin people think 2019 was the year while I think it’s going to. be 2020. I think that’s when we’re going to. see more shakiness in traditional markets, I think that’s where we’re going to see more shakiness in real estate and. I think that’s when we’re going to see more liquidity flow into Bitcoin as a potential safe haven asset as it typically does with gold but now being the fact that bitcoin is here. We’re able to see that perform in its entirety because when Bitcoin was created in 2000 and if you look at the white paper it was before the recession and so we’ll be able to see it act upon what it needs to act upon here.
One video I implore you guys to check out is I did an interview with Jeremy Gardner the founder of Auger you know, that’s a billion dollar company in this sphere. Obviously, it’s not at that level right now with market caps still worth hundreds of millions he came over to my penthouse here in Los Angeles, California. We were able to chat and it was a very great conversation and we talked a lot about the future of Bitcoin and what we potentially see with regulations. A big part of what he talked about was the fact that five years ago Bitcoin as a whole for an asset people looked at it completely different than they do right now. Five years ago people either laughed at you or they didn’t know what you’re talking about. Today when you mention Bitcoin to somebody, they’re like, yeah, I mean that’s something I might want to invest in. How do I buy it? You know, it’s a different world when it comes to Bitcoin. Intrinsic value is something people actually recognize as a potential asset and it’s something that you buy and. that you can hold and it can potentially go up or potentially go down.That’s a good thing that’s like what gold is, it potentially can go up or potentially go down. It’s pretty much like real estate it can potentially go up and it’s good for people to have that perspective in my opinion.
One thing that I definitely can show you here is on total cryptocurrency market cap when we look at this area of consolidation that we’re currently in this area that we want to be at you can see this is the exact area that we want Bitcoin to bounce off of. The total cryptocurrency market cap already finished that market structure when it comes to looking at markets there’s three primary things to look at. Overall price trend, Is it trending up? Is it trending down? Market structure, previous resistance or previous support levels, right? That’s all part of market structure and then the third thing is going to. be price action. What type of price action are we seeing right is there volume and so when we look at market structures is a very important part of any sort of market. Potentially going up or down or predicting where markets are headed when we look at the total cryptocurrency market cap. We’re consolidating at the exact area of market structure that assumes that we’re not going to see lower levels in total cryptocurrency market cap so what that tells me is if Bitcoin does see lower price levels and corrects to this consolidation zone in which the total cryptocurrency market cap is already corrected then that means that we’ll start to see altcoins head up in order to maintain that total cryptocurrency market cap consolidation zone.
What that means is Ethereum might see some price action as we recently put out an XRP signal, why did I put out an XRP Signal? Because not only did we see this reversal in this uptrend. We’re seeing a lot less sell volume and we’re seeing a lot more buy volume come in and we’re actually heading towards this previous support and broke that previous support multiple times and now we’re staying above that support.
If you see where Ethereum’s price or ripples price currently is right now you can see it at that same exact area where Ripple was able to push a little bit higher and then saw this major breakout to the upside and we’re in that area right now. We’re holding this area and we already broke above so this is proof and confirmation we drop back down we but back above and now we’re staying in that area in that zone with volume. It’s price action, market structure and market trend, so the trend is up the market structure is looking good previous support is holding support right now and then price action you can see there’s volume coming in there. So It’s going to be exciting to see what’s happening with Altcoin.
So I will continue to post these altcoin trades for those of you that are able to trade it. A lot of you us investors are not able to trade all the altcoins and that’s totally fine because you know you’re still able to trade tron, ripple, litecoin and Bitcoin cash there’s a lot of options for us investors, it’s just a matter of what exchange you’re using.
What’s also is Interesting Brexit it’s still going on, you know recently we saw us-china tariff Wars. I would say it’s not completely gone, but a little bit of some better negotiations that are happening, they’re finally communicating in the US and China. I think that’s a big reason we started to see the stock market go back up and you know people are still confident in traditional markets. When people are confident in traditional market they’re going to want their liquidity there because those have performed for the last hundred and hundreds of years. They have done very well but when you look at something like Bitcoin and Gold they’re typically only used when they’re necessary.
So they say Bitcoin is the first-ever asset that not only acts as a storage of value. Right, so you’ve got gold and silver, those are traditional storages of value right now and what that means is when you see volatile markets go into some sort of recession or correction, you’ll see a lot of liquidity flow into these storages of value because these are safe haven assets, right? They’re meant to be assets that have intrinsic backed value that is tangible. You know we can argue that bitcoin is not tangible but there was actually a report by a German bank recently saying that Bitcoin is more tangible than Gold. I had an opportunity to speak alongside Steve Wozniak the co-founder of Apple earlier this year and I had an opportunity to speak alongside Gary Vee a lot of the big players like Brock Pierce the founder of EOS being backstage with him in private rooms and sessions with him multiple times. I’m currently advising about 9 blockchain companies and that’s been taking up a little bit of my time but. most of my focus goes into our discord group because we just have so many good results and there’s so many people changing their lives. We have thousands of testimonials and I believe that we’re offering a product and a service that really can change lives forever. I see a lot of our members growing their accounts and learning they’re realizing how to do simple things that can allow them to just work there full-time job and have their phone creating that secondary source of income. When investing in financial markets you don’t ever want to put all your eggs in one basket. As a matter of fact, I would recommend 90 percent of your eggs go into a diversified basket that’s long term and held where it’s not moving but then also having that opportunity to have that extra to play by putting as little as five hundred dollars into a market and starting to trade. That can easily they turn into a thousand which can turn into two which can turn into four and when you understand the power of compounding interest then you understand the fact that it’s extremely lucrative and can really change lives.
Question: Shasta’s thoughts on B&B? It’s interesting if we look at BNB I think this is across the board for all coins. Obviously we’ve seen major major declines here we’re not necessarily seeing I would call a reversal here with BNB. They recently decided to burn all of their coins that they have had in storage and I think that people realized that. BNB coin was quite overvalued,it’s just the coin that a lot of people started putting their assets into.
What’s interesting is with US being Binances number one traffic source and now they’ve banned it from their main platform. I think that we’re necessarily seeing the same type of intrinsic value here with BNB; as we did several months ago. We really saw that huge decline when they announced that US ban, but I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I just think that it’s part of how this market is going to mature over time.
If you want to understand a little bit of what’s happening here with Bitcoin, I’m pretty much not going to say I’m bullish until we’re above this moving average here you can see we’ve got that 50 and 100 MA and can potentially about to see this crossover here, which would be extremely interesting to see. This would be considered, you know a death cross, you know we see a lower moving averages cross under a higher moving average. You know, we’re about to see that as well, all of these areas here pointing towards a potential push down. I wouldn’t be surprised for some short-term pushes to that $8,800 level again, but for the most part I’m expecting that $6,100 level here soon. We don’t want to sit here and catch a falling knife, which is why we want to be extremely careful with where we’re at right now as market structure is showing us that we’re in this zone where there’s not really much support. Previous support and resistance and it’s really in an unknown zone right now, so that’s not a good thing.
I’m still pretty confident in BTC as an asset, Bitcoin has proven itself. It was the top performing asset of 2017 top performing asset of 2019 and I believe 2020 is going to. be a great year for Bitcoin and I hope you do too. Thank you guys so much for tuning in and until next time. I’m out. See you guys on the discord.