WHAT THE F#@K IS HAPPENING TO BITCOIN? (prediction & charts)
Snipers, you have to see what’s
happening under the Bitcoin price.
As shortly after the Labor Day candle
closed yesterday,
we saw over 19% drop in Bitcoin price
after coming towards the midpoint
of this range between 49.
7580.
Exactly like what we were predicting.
But remember, I said that what we really
wanted to see for the Bulls is for 49,
700 to hold as a support.
And we didn’t see that we actually crossed
all the way down below
the 50 day moving average.
Ah, coming extremely close to 41, 950.
And that’s exactly the scenario that I’ve
been telling you guys I’ve been concerned
about because of the fact that Bitcoin
wasn’t seeing strength here at 49, 700.
Now, for those on the shorts side
of the equation, understand,
it was very difficult to shorts this move
specifically because of the fact that we
started to move above 49,
700 on the weekend.
Of course, where the markets
are the most manipulate plate.
And it wasn’t surprised that we saw this
Bart head pattern,
whatever you want to call it.
And then a major push down on the weekend.
And this right here was an extremely hard
move to shorts, in my opinion,
because of this range that was so large,
it was really hard to identify a proper
position based on market structure,
important support and resistance levels.
I personally got stopped out of my shorts
when we crossed above 520 because I
started to take shorts positions around
that fiftyn $1000 level,
and I wasn’t expecting any
further upside beyond 52,000.
We did get just a slight bit
of further upside before the dump.
And so that was kind of a messed up
thing by the Bears to do, in my opinion.
And so I hope you guys survived.
Of course, you never want to trade.
And especially on the shorts side
more than you can afford to lose.
It’s inherently more risky on shorts sides
because there’s unlimited downside,
which means that an asset can
go up as far as it wants.
And then beyond that,
when you’re on the shorts side,
you have to realize that you
are betting against that asset.
In certain cases,
those are positions that you want
to get in and out of quite quickly.
I just didn’t see a great set up here,
and Unfortunately, I got stopped out of my
position and then we saw the push down.
But really, what matters now is this is
the first time that we’ve had the chance
to test our Bitcoin dominance prediction,
and it seems like we have been
on track despite maybe the timing.
That Bitcoin dominance possibly is
in the early stages of reversal here,
seeing extreme amounts of strength
after seeing this downside movement,
I remember I’ve said the only way for us
to test this opinion is
for us to see downside.
We’re looking at the altcoins outside of a
theme, and they saw a massive push down.
Right.
And so what you want to start
assuming now is not that okay.
This is where you want to buy in,
but now we want to start assuming
a potential reversal and trend because
the fact of the matter is the others
dominant outside of Bitcoin,
they don’t fail to form any further highs,
and we only have a lower high now.
And so this could be
the end of altcoins outside of Bitcoin,
a theorem performing
better than Bitcoin there.
I’m sure there are going to be those odd
cases like in the 2017 2018 ball Mark,
we saw a link do very well in 2018 and 19,
but for the most part,
this would be considered a lower high
in my books, which means that there could
be some further downside here
for the altcoins outside of Bitcoin.
So was this our opportunity to move
positions from altcoins and take
those profits into Bitcoin sell?
I think that an opportunity still presents
itself as valid if our assumption is truly
gonna be the fact that we will see Bitcoin
dominance starting to see strength
Ethereum also failing to form
new highs and dominance.
Is this a triple top? I don’t know.
But what I will say is we’re going
to continue to isolate Ethereum away
from the other altcoins being the fact
that it’s institutionally graded just like
Bitcoin, and then the Bitcoin dominance,
just like we talked about what we really
want to monitor now
is this 20 week moving average where
we have this sitting at 45% dominance.
We cross above that.
That’s the final confirmation.
We need to assume that our prediction
of dominance right now is true
and that that’s the fact that we saw
an extended altcoin season
as Bitcoin came up so far to make a lower
high, and we made our initial high
and this extension was
really gold for all coins.
But now that we’re starting to see
downside after seeing this initial
correction from 64 to 30,000,
the sentiment could certainly have changed
now if we see continued
downside for Bitcoin.
So that’s the thesis that would be
confirmed with Bitcoin dominance crossing
about that 20 week moving average.
And then if we were to look at Ethereum
to Bitcoin chart so far,
we can’t assume anything significant
by the fact that all we did was form
a lower high so far, so that to me says
that we’re on track with our prediction.
But what really matters now is let’s pull
up this weekly chart for a Bitcoin to talk
about what this move could look like
for the Bulls and the Bears,
because now we’ve at least seemed to move
to the downside so far,
and we didn’t come and test the 20 week
moving average that’s puzzle piece number
one that could assume
some bullish strength.
If we don’t come back down to test these
loads with our candle low now at 42,843,
we don’t want to come down to 41,950.
At this point, this would be the make it
or break it for the Bull market,
in my opinion, because if we break 41,
950 get below the 20, we moving average.
The likelihood of Bitcoin coming down
to the 25,$000 to $23,000 range at some
point in October, November
or December is on the table.
Before we get to 100,000.
See the real move to the
continuation of the upside.
Now, that is a gold statement.
But we’ve made many gold statements
on this channel and we
want to monitor 41,950.
This current candle, though,
puzzle piece number one,
is that we didn’t test the Tony ETH
moving out just actually a good thing.
We got close to it,
which is also a good thing.
And then we crossed back above 44,800.
Now we go into the daily chart.
And what you’ll notice here is,
as we found support here on the $41,950
level, we jumped back above
the 200 day moving average.
That would probably be the most bullish
way this could have played out so far.
And so now we have to look at this range
between the 200 day moving average, which
is sitting right at that $46,000 level.
And we want to monitor the range above
that towards at this point we have
the monthly open,
and then we have the previous weekly open
with the previous weekly open at 48,750.
The monthly open is where the price
action is right now at 47,000.
And here’s what we can
assume at this point.
If we stay above this $46,000 level,
we know this right here is
the 200 day moving average.
And so that would be extremely healthy
for this initial move to the downside
to potentially have the Bulls take us
above this monthly open with more
aggression and strength.
We have to realize,
though there’s very little buyers
compared to sellers from this move.
But this is institutional manipulation.
And so when you see institutional volume
like this, we really have to come
into these smaller timeframes.
So we could assume right now hourly
and four hour candles above this $47,000
level where the price is currently
sitting and the monthly open is sitting.
There’s a possibility we can move up
to the previous weekly open at 48,765.
There’s only a 4% move to the upside.
And so what we really
want to see is 49,700.
Now, here’s the thing.
If we get to 49,700,
that’s a very positive thing,
because now we can potentially get back
above this level and we get back above it
with this type of a move to the downside,
that’s really gold for the Bulls.
Now, here’s what we have to realize
that this move to the downside was
in reaction to the DXY moving
to the upside in that’s a surprise here
for those have been tuned
into the snipers channel.
We also saw the move the DXY push up
and that brought
the cryptocurrency market down.
Right.
We’re four dimensional channel.
We’re not a two dimensional channel here.
We’re going to look at all markets
and correlate them and so with Bitcoin
dominance also moving up in correlation
to the DXY that’s been in line
with our thesis on this channel.
So with that being said,
if we monitor the DXY, we can get a good
idea of what’s gonna happen here.
But here’s what I’ll tell you right now.
If we keep struggling to get above this
$47,000 level right now and we break
from 46,000 where we have this 200 day
moving average at that point,
44,800 comes into the equation.
We could potentially see a balance at this
level,
but that would be the weaker scenario
that could potentially lead
us to even further downside.
And so we have to realize the path
of least resistance when there’s low
volume will be sideways to a little bit
higher, so they could have just pushed us
down for now, and we could potentially
see some sideways price action.
But if we were to just remove all of these
green lines from the chart,
what you really want to understand now is
that we’re in a sensitive area,
and if we can move up from here,
we’re staying above the 200 day moving
average, and that’s a very positive thing.
We’ve only got a Wick now below
this 200 day moving average.
But if we move below that $46,000 level,
things could get ugly.
And so that’s really what I
want to put on the table.
And I’ve been saying to you guys at 49,
700 breaks, I don’t just expect
this to come to 48 to 47,000.
I was extracting 41, 950.
We pretty much got that.
So now the question is,
is this all that’s left for the Bulls
where we’re going to see further downside?
Or is this just a correction
from an uptrend?
I think we’ll really get that answer
in the next 24 hours based on how Bitcoin
is able to react to this $47,000 level,
this monthly open is sitting.
What we also want to start monitoring here
at this point is Ethereum
and some other altcoins.
Notice how Etherium here.
Very interesting.
Here.
We have these lines join out on our
charts and we keep them on the charts.
This is the fair market value for them
through the initial bore run.
And from the rally from 17 to 60,
we came all the way up to the resistance
of this channel where we also had
confidence ETH 39, 59,
and we rejected and then came back to find
support inside of the consolidation
support that we recently moved away from.
We were sitting between
that 3300 to $3000 level.
We came and found support here
and we bounced right back up.
And that’s also confluence
with the 50 day moving average.
And so right now,
Ethereum is also in a sensitive area where
just like Bitcoin is either going to get
above that monthly open at 47,000
or continue further down.
A Ethereum is sitting at the resistance
of this channel where we also have
confidence with the monthly open
and so here’s what I’m thinking.
If Bitcoin can’t get above 47,000,
Ethereum chance of getting back above 34.
50 is going to be extremely difficult.
We get back above 47,000 for Bitcoin.
I believe we can come and test this
channel from a previous support
will to now be resistant on 3900.
But the fact of the matter is if Bitcoin
can’t get back up a 49,700,
the likelihood of this continuing up,
I believe, is very unlikely.
And we could see ETH push down,
bring the value of them against Bitcoin
down with it as this move certainly did,
which we’ll look at in just a second.
But if Bitcoin can’t get above 470,
the problem now is we come back in this
channel that takes us to three0,
but this isn’t really the range.
The range is actually down to 1980.
So it would make sense now that we could
see further downside for her against
Bitcoin if we do not move back about
47,000 because this range is large, right?
And so here to the downside,
there’s no support in between.
We already tested this channel support,
and so you knock on the door a second
time we come back down to 3000.
The likelihood of this
holding is very unlikely.
And so this has already been tested.
The door has already been knocked.
So we either get above 470 for Bitcoin
that can kind of bring a Ethereum
to the upside, or we don’t.
And so I’m sure you guys might
find that out before I do.
Or at least this video being posted.
And then the theorem Bitcoin chart,
of course, reacting to the downside,
what we’ve been expecting, despite
all of the bullishness with Ethereum.
As soon as we saw this bullish
confirmation at 650 Associates,
we said, all right, that’s it.
We’re gonna see strength.
We did see strength.
But if you’re going to be like Bruce
and be like water at this point, we’re
seeing rejection at some previous highs.
And so now we have to come back to our
thesis of the macro and say, okay,
is this falling in line with the fact
that Bitcoin dominance is going to start
increasing if we see downside
in the cryptocurrency market,
because I don’t expect Bitcoin
dominance to reverse and come up.
If we’re seeing further upside, there’s no
reason for there to be fear in altcoins.
But if we see the overall market
pushing down, that becomes the issue.
And so let’s see if we can find anything
here on the 15 minutes chart
before I get out of here.
So far we were forming some higher lows,
which is a good thing on the 15 minutes or
we didn’t get enough volume
to justify the amount of sell pressure
that we came in, but it wasn’t bad.
I mean, you can see here we got this
really large sell order,
and then we had volume equal to that come
in immediately after the institutional
volume came in, and institutions are not
going to just crash the price of an asset
down, because now they
have nothing to liquidate.
And so they go one by one, right?
They go one by one.
That’s just the truth.
They don’t want to bring their
price down on themselves.
Some of these institutions could see
the order books
literally get flooded from their orders
and bring price, you know,
down up in certain cases.
And so if we see a push back up,
that’s a good thing.
We really want to monitor 49,700.
But the next road block is 48,765,
so it doesn’t look too bad so far,
but it was certainly a rug pool.
It was extremely hard move
to short, to say the least.
And I’m sure a lot of people either got
really happy or really sad on this move
because these type of volatile moves can
really throw some people off their
toes and people forget their rules
and they make that one mistake.
Forget to set up a stop loss, whatever
it might be, and they get wiped out.
Right.
You have to be careful.
I got stopped out
on my Bitcoin short trade.
We did take that Ethereum trade,
and that short went sell at the 39 50
level, but, yeah,
hopefully I answered some of your
questions and we’ll
continue to monitor this.
But it’s interesting to see that our
thesis ETH dominance is coming to.
I think that’s the most interesting part,
because we’ve finally gotten a chance
to observe that with this push down,
and with that, I hope you
guys enjoyed today’s video.
And until next time, snipers out.
