WHAT THE F#@K IS HAPPENING TO BITCOIN? (prediction & charts)

Naeem Al-Obaidi
11 min readSep 22, 2021

You have to see what’s happening

to the Bitcoin price this Tuesday as we
saw a 9% candle to the downside breaking

from the 200 day moving average at $46,000
all the way down to the 100 day moving

average sitting just
at that $40,000 level.

And exactly as we talked about,

because the volume here was already
exhausted, we sliced right through

to the next support level, and now we
are heading towards our $38,000 target.

But what we want to look at at the at this
point because we are seeing the volume

come in is how are the micro
timeframes reacting to this?

Because that’s gonna give us an indication

about how much sideways price action
we’re gonna be seeing with Bitcoin.

And notice here on the six hour chart,

we saw a major spike and sell pressure
here at the support of this

market structure, which was pretty much
the channel that Bitcoin followed when it

first came below 50,000 and just
started bouncing in the mid 40,000.

We came into this level and we did see
a good amount of buy volume come in.

And so all of the sell pressure since then

has been less than
the amount of by volume.

And the six hour chart is something that I
talk about a lot because institutions like

to hide their volume into time frames
that are less popular with traders.

And so the six hour chart is one of those.

The four hour chart is a lot
more popular with traders.

So you won’t necessarily see institutions
put their volume on this chart as much.

But we did get a lot of by pressure here

even on the four hour chart
at this structural support.

So I want to address the Bulls
and the bears today.

Of course, in the likelihood
of the sideways price action,

the likelihood of a potential
push back up above 44,800.

But then, of course, sell address
the downside scenarios as always.

But we did get this week already that
cleared all of the volume down to 40,000.

So that’s puzzle piece
number one right there.

If we come back to 400 at any point,
that’s gonna be a huge concern,

because now we have that potential
of definitely coming to 360, 500.

And so for the downside,
we want to monitor that.

But we also want to go into the three hour

chart, see what else we
can get in terms of hints.

And if we look at this Wick, I mean,
that’s definitely a puzzle piece that we

have to keep in mind here that when they
did breach 41, 950, they didn’t let price

action get to that level before
seeing a lot of volume.

And so they just really just
market gold into that level.

And that’s an interesting way that maybe

some whales can manipulate the market
knowing that this is a major level.

They just want to quickly come in there

and breach it so that it kind of
keeps traders on their toes.

But now we’re going to get into some very,

very important charts when it comes
to micro analysis, the 1 hour chart,

there’s no volume in terms
of buyers against sellers.

So in the micro timeframes,

things are bearish,
which means that the likelihood of this

bear market already have begun in May,
when Bitcoin topped out at 640 could be

the case right now where Bitcoin
failed to form a new high.

And so we’re still in the bear market,

which isn’t a bad thing
even for the Bulls.

Realize that when we come to form a lower
high and if we’re still in a bear market,

that means we’re closer
to the end than the start.

The fact that these micro time frames are

bearish, it tells us how the environment
is on the playing field.


So those larger time frames are
talking about institutional volume.

And then now we’re coming into the more
retail side with the smaller timeframes.

And so that means retail
is selling right now.

It seems like maybe,

you know, the hodlers are still huddling,
but we go into the 15 minutes chart.

No volume here.

We initially got volume here at this
market structural support,

where we’ve been watching here
around that $43,000 level.

So that is a puzzle piece.

But then that massive push down below
41,950 came notice how this volume

on the 15 minutes start came
as soon as we hit 41,950.

The most volume that we’ve seen since

Bitcoin started to trend down below 44,800
happened at the exact price level

that we’ve had on our snipers
chart for over a year now.

So that’s why our red lines are
extremely important on this channel.

I pick these levels out based on where

I’ve seen a lot of accumulation
on the volume profile, the PVR,

and also looking at major weekly
and monthly candle highs candles when

we’ve seen a lot of volume
coming to the market.

And that’s where these
major levels come in.

So 41 950 is the major support
right now that we want to monitor.

We don’t want to get below 41.

If we want, assume any further sideways
price action, we get below 41, 950.

The likelihood of this trending down
below 400 becomes highly likely.

So let’s keep that in mind when it
comes to the smaller timeframes.

But this right here is a lot of volume

that’s institutional
manipulation once again.

And it’s more clear here
on the 15 minutes chart.

They just wanted to clear this level
up to keep traders on their toes.

And we go into the three minute chart.

This is actually pretty significant

because we literally look at the
volume here and how it came in.

Notice how a lot of buy pressure came

in here below 41,950,
the buyers really started to amp

themselves up because prior to that,
before we got to that level,

the last time we saw buyers
like that was at the market.

Structural support here right
around that $43,000 level.

So it looks like there is a portion
of retail buying up these dips.

And so maybe institutions don’t
want to just drive price down.

Maybe they’ll let these large
buyers volume

from retail come in to kind of keep
the price of flow and more sideways.

And that’s why I always say the path

of least resistance from the light volume
is always sideways a little bit higher.

But the fact of the matter is if
the institutions are willing to just drop

the price down at 41, 950 just
to keep traders on their toes.

Does that sell you that they do have
some lower price targets in mind?

I think that that could be a psychological

thing that we could maybe assume here,
once again, nothing is guaranteed.

And so the fact that they’re willing
to play and sell at these levels.

So basically when they came in,
they sell all the way down to 40,000.

Now, does that mean that they expect it’s
going to come below 40,000 at some point?

I think that’s on the table what it seems

like retail is trying to keep
the price more stable.

And therefore, if we do see garden variety
market behavior, expect 44,800 at some

point to come in as a resistance
if we see strength above 41,950.

But if we start to come and see weakness

at 41, 950, I think 36,000 is
gonna be the place that we’ll see.

Maybe institutional
buyers come in where they want to actually

keep the price up above 36,
500 for a longer period of time.

And even though we may at some point or

another and this could be November or
December come down even lower than 36,

500, we could be buying
yourself time at 3605 hundred.

And that’s why the institutions instead
of selling well, maybe buy at these levels

so that price can at least
drive itself back up to 470.

Buying more time for the market
to accumulate at these levels.

And then what they’ll do is they’ll start
the final move to the downside in which if

you’ve been monitoring and following our

channel, I’ve always said that there’s
this very macro support level that I

expect institutions want
to accumulate at this level.

It’s above the previous
alltime high at 200.

I think at some point if

we do start to see this play out
and the more macro term this $26,000 can

come on the table, maybe you know,
what they’ll do is drive price to 47,000,

drive sideways price action before a quick
push down so that they can get their final

positions in before driving the price
to the over $100,000 level.

You know, that’s just a random thought.

And inside of my head is quite
a dangerous place when looking at charts.

I’ve just been looking
at these for so longs.

Take everything with a grain of salt.

But that’s what I would expect on how this
micro movement could really affect you

in the long term but we can’t sit here
and just say that everything is bullish.

Now, when Bitcoin failed to form a new

high on this push up, we came
from 64,000 down to the $30,000 level.

We did come below that at some point

with a couple Wicks, but it would mainly
accumulated between 34,788 36,000.

And then we got the push up and this was

the Bulls chance to try
to drive price above 49,700.

They barely got above it.

And now we’re starting to see
the sell pressure come back.

That’s a lower high.

And then we look at what’s
happening to the other charts here.

And by the way, to end this,

because that was a pretty important move
that I’m showing you at this point.

If we continue to see the sell side

pressure, that’s where
these lower levels come in.

On the upside.
If we get above 470,

that’s all I’d like to see in order
to invalidate this and assume that there

could still be that potential
that this drives price to the upside.


So that’s a bullish
and bearer side 47,000.

But at this point, with Bitcoin price
currently sitting at 42,785,

now that’s a little bit of a longer road
and they’re now more roadblocks ahead

for Bitcoin to get there, like 44,840
6000 ETH, a 200 moving average is.

And now the monthly open at 47,000.

So 47,000 is really where we want
to go and get a confirmation.

So that’s the confirmation
for the upside at this point 47,000.

And really we’re playing
in the range now to 38,000.

I can’t deny that we
already breached this.

We punctured it, and that means
that we’re in the range.

And so 38,000 on the table 49,700
is not on the table anymore.

We need to see 47,000 at this point

to even assume that we can get
back to that $50,000 level.

That’s what I’m monitoring for Bitcoin.

Of course, a lot of this is going
to affect the altcoin market.

All coins are not just gonna do extremely
well with Bitcoin is not doing well.

And so Ethereum also did push down below

the $3000 accumulation range
that we were talking about.

And that is a major puzzle piece here.

So the fact of the matter is this is

a larger range than Bitcoin, and this
can take a Ethereum down to 900 eightyn.

With Bitcoin seeing any price action
below 400, this becomes extremely likely.

And that means Ethereum is not going
to perform as well as Bitcoin.

It’s going to see more downside than

not only because as a smaller market cap,
because it’s an altcoin and in the past

that’s never acted as
a hedge in a bear market.

And the theorem, the Bitcoin are also
failed to form new highs on this runup.

May was the high there,

and since then Bitcoin has been
dominant and so pushing below 650.

So this is a very, very big concern.

That’s what I’m monitoring
for Ethereum at this point.

Until then, the they can just kind
of drive price up and down,

making Ethereum feel like maybe it
won’t see as much downside as Bitcoin.

But if a there to Bitcoin starts to hit

at 65,000 social level, that’s a big deal,
because that’s more of a confirmation now

that there is actually going to see,
we can just maybe for 3456 months now,

the total cryptocurrency market capture
major puzzle piece on the macro that we

formed a lower high couldn’t
breach the May highs.

That means that investors took profits

before even getting
to test the previous high.

And that is a macro piece,
because that could be a lower high

that takes us back even below
the lows that we saw earlier in the year.

We want to monitor that.

And the interesting thing about this is

correlating with the altcoin that are
outside of the Ethereum and Bitcoin chart

with their dominance also
forming a lower high.

And that’s also

been a sort of confirmation about our
Bitcoin dominance prediction that we’re

double bottoming here since we’ve yet
to form any further low since May.

And now we saw the nine pushed

to the downside for Bitcoin,
assuming a potential top and Bitcoin

dominance is still yet to get
below where it was before.

So the DXY is also very correlated
with Bitcoin dominance.

So our assumption has been that since
the DXY already double bottomed got above

the 20 moving average,
Bitcoin dominance wants to do that next

and then Ethereum dominance sell failing
to form you highs showing weakness there.

And I do want to cover more
of traditional markets.

We talked a lot about the DXY yesterday,

but gold still just kind
of sitting at the weekly open.

So commodities like oil and gold
right now are pretty stable.

There’s not much to look at there
to get really good information.

Now Japan is looking like it doesn’t want

to kind of see
a rocket ship to the upside.

It’s going to just test
its previous early eyes.

Now it looks like it wants to see sideways
price action based on what I’m looking at.

And then China might follow that.

So traditional markets like
Spy 500 on these markets.

Wow, look at that.

So I did not look at S and P 500.

It already came down and tested
the 100 day moving average.


this right here is not the puzzle piece we
want to see here for the SMP 500 in order

to assume a healthy environment
for the cryptocurrency market to see

further upside and capital flow into it
when Spy 500 is not doing what we saw,

what happened in March where
everything started to come down.

And so this is a big puzzle piece.

We really want to start
seeing some buyers here.

We’re going to really monitor Spy 500

for the next week, I guess,
because this is a new puzzle piece.

I’m not as fond of looking at the SMP 500
Emini futures contract on a daily basis.

So I’m seeing this daily candle yesterday.
That’s shocking.

We came to the 100 day moving average.

If we start to come to this 200 day moving
average, that’s a very big deal,

because we have not tested
that since the start of this year.

So the 100 day moving average, we’ve
already tested twice right before 2021.

But since the start of this year,
we’ve never come down here.

This is the first time.
So this is a big puzzle piece.

Spy 500 now testing the 100 day moving

average that’s showing weakness
and traditional markets.

Maybe international markets may follow.

And so very interesting day today.

I hope you guys enjoyed today’s analysis.

I’m definitely enjoying
this view here in Greece.

I wish all of you guys have the
opportunity to come to a place like this.

What a beautiful, beautiful view.

And yeah, guys, so with that,

thank you all for tuning
in to the snipers Shannel today.

Until next time.
Snipers out.



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.