Naeem Al-Obaidi
8 min readSep 19, 2019


Why Bitcoin BTC May NEVER Go Below 10K Soon!

So Bitcoin is at an ultimatum as we approach the end of this market structure for this pennant formation you can see we’re either going to be breaking out to the upside or downside. I’m going to be talking about why I’m seeing some very important indicators with the 50-day moving average alongside with what’s happening with Etheriums breakout, Bitcoin dominance and Total cryptocurrency market cap compared to gold markets as well.

So I’m going to be talking about what’s happening with Bitcoin and where I predict us to start heading towards as this is really what my pattern prediction is going to be and I’m going to talk about why I think that we’re seeing so much manipulation in this market and how we’re going to see a little bit more manipulation before we see a breakout to the upside. Now when you look at this current formation you can see we saw a very similar area here in the past where we saw Bitcoin consolidate between that 10200 and 10300 dollar range before seeing a drop to that ascending support level and then we continued the trend up and I believe we’re going to be seeing this exact same formation here once again. As we start to head towards the end of this pennant we’re going to have to come to an ultimatum because as you can see this ascending support level is still active and I wouldn’t be surprised for us to see one more push down and allow us to get that final and last entry under 10000 for us to see the breakout to the upside.

I’m still so confident with the breakout to the upside for Bitcoin because a lot of people are saying it might go to 7,000 but I just don’t believe that’s the case and the reason being is because when you look at Ethereum’s recent breakout you can see we went above that 50-day moving average, which is an average we’ve been trying to get above with Bitcoin for quite some time now and Bitcoin has been back and forth above that 50-day moving average. We can see right now we are below the 50 and the 100 day moving average depicted here in red and blue. So therefore I think that’s enough pressure for us to see one more push down before we see the breakout to the upside but overall when it comes to the fundamentals 80% of trading is emotional 10% is technical and the other 10% is fundamental.

When we see gold and its market structure I wouldn’t be a surprise for me to see a little bit more downside and a correction towards that 50-day moving average before seeing further upside with gold.

I’m still very bullish on gold because as you can see when we look at markets like the Nasdaq which is a traditional market typically when we’re approaching this next recession that everyone is expecting we’re going to see capital and liquidity flow from traditional markets to hedges, like gold and Bitcoin. Knowing right now that the Nasdaq just saw a quick pump up, we already double topped and I’m not expecting us to go ahead and break new highs with the Nasdaq I think this is going to be one last push up before we start to see a real push down here with the stock market. That’s when we’re going to see gold come into play and that’s when Bitcoin is going to have the chance to see a major breakout, but before we see that breakout, I do expect us to see a little bit more downside but this may be the last time that we see Bitcoin under the $10,000 level.

Everyone is looking at this ETHs breakout and expecting Bitcoin to also breakout as we start to see more and momentum here with ETH and Bitcoin staying stagnant for me that shows us that the whales have something planned and they have a move ahead of us and we’re not just going to see a quick break out here with Bitcoin because if we do break out right now that everyone is going to be jumping onto Bitcoin knowing the fact that we’re going to be above the 50-day we’re going to be above the 100 day which will act as strong support but more importantly, we’re gonna break above this major trend line that everyone has been following for quite some time now and I just don’t expect that to happen out of nowhere. We saw the breakout with ETH over that 50-day moving average and what I’m expecting is for Etherium to go ahead and bounce on that 50-day moving average which you can see it likes to bounce on the 50-day and you can see these previous points in which it’s bounced on the 50-day that right there is going to be enough room for Bitcoin to see that final last drop.

If we pull up a one-hour chart you can see how similar this market structure is here to previous market structures. You can see this is where I’m seeing very similar structure, we had this consolidation here and then we saw this fake breakout right before we saw the big drop you can see we actually dropped all the way down to 9800. That’s exactly where we dropped before we saw that push back up and then we saw that consolidation back up, fake out to 10300 and then we pushed all the way back down to 10500. I think we’ll see that same exact structure here where we went down to 9800 we saw this push up now we’re staying below 10300 we may see a quick fake out above 10300 and then that pushed down but I don’t believe we’ll hit that 9400. I think the perfect entry if you guys are staying on top of our discord and looking at those market updates is going to be around that 9600 to 9900 hundred dollar level and if I were you I would just set my stop-loss around that 9200 dollar mark because if we do break down there is that possibility then we are going to be most likely heading towards the 8000 and 7000 dollar levels but I’m not assuming that opinion as I am overall bullish. At the end of the day when looking at any sort of technical analysis, you want to go with the major trend and as we can all agree the major trend here is still up. We have a lot of room to go when we look at the weekly chart here, you can see we have all this room here from previous market structure that we have start heading up towards and I’m not necessarily worried about these lower amounts of volume because you can see even with the low amounts of volume we still see good momentum and price action. I’m more worried about price action and overall market trend and market structure when it comes down to the daily and 4-hour chart.

So that’s what I’m looking at here and another confirmation of this analysis would be looking at Bitcoin dominance when we pull up this weekly chart you can see we’re heading towards these known resistance levels. However, when we pull up the daily chart you can see we’re still overall trending up but we just broke below that 50-day moving average so I wouldn’t be surprised for dominance to see a continued drop possibly towards that 100 day before we see a bounce up because you could see in the past we have went towards that 100 day and you can see it’s acted as an area of support before a breakout in the past so that will allow Bitcoin to see that quick drop down that will also allow ETH to correct towards the 50-day moving average and that’s when I think it’s more appropriate to assume the breakout for Bitcoin.

If we were to pull up total cryptocurrency market cap just to finalize this analysis, what I want you to realize is where we see major volume right now. We’re at this area of major volume, but you can see just below we have still a lot of volume here as well and so for us to break down towards that 240,000 total market cap would it be a surprise to me before we see the breakout to the upside. I just don’t believe we’re going to see any bear market here soon. I don’t think we’ll break below 240 billion in total market cap you can see there’s enough volume there to hold us and this right here is going to act as a safety net and I think that’s where the whales want to take advantage of the manipulation and take advantage of this little gap of volume here.

Hopefully you guys enjoyed this analysis and thank you guys so much for tuning in with us at Traders profit club and with that being said that’s it for today. Thank you guys so much and until our next one.

Naeem Out!



Naeem Al-Obaidi

Traders Profit Club (SnipersTube) is a community dedicated to creating knowledgeable & profitable traders in all markets.